NY-26: GOP loses referendum on Rep. Ryan plan to end Medicare as we know it

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Kathy Hochul ought to send Paul Ryan a thank-you note.

Hochul pulled off a long-shot victory Tuesday in the heavily Republican 26th Congressional District largely by vowing to save Medicare. Hochul found political gold in Ryan plan – Donn Esmonde – The Buffalo News:

The spending plan proposed by Ryan, Republican chairman of the House Budget Committee, would — among other things — change the face of Medicare, the government-run health care program for senior citizens. Announced in mid-April, it immediately handed Hochul a point of attack.

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"Medicare seemed to be the key issue," said Jim Campbell, chairman of UB's political science department. "Hochul recognized it as a potential vulnerable spot for Corwin." Largely because Medicare was thick in the mix, the ripples of the special election — as evidenced by the national play the race got — extend far beyond the 26th District.

Hochul and her allies pounded Corwin's backing of the plan to, as they put it, "end Medicare as we know it." For Hochul, concerns about Ryan's plan helped her to connect with senior citizens — whose propensity to vote made them a vital bloc in a low-turnout special election.

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Hochul's competitiveness in a longtime Republican stronghold should send a warning flare to national Republicans. Hochul rode the Medicare horse from the moment Ryan's plan was unveiled through the home stretch. Given Hochul's unexpected competitiveness and Medicare-driven poll numbers, Republicans may have to back away from plans to partly privatize Medicare in 10 years.

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The Ryan plan's shape-shifting of Medicare was, for Hochul, the gift that kept on giving.

The GOP spin this morning is that Tea Party candidate Jack Davis siphoned off Republican and independent votes from Corwin. This requires some political jujitsu to believe. The Tea Party regularly claims that they are opposed to both political parties, and that they are not a wholly owned subsidiary of the Republican Party. So it is presumptuous and pretentious to assume that Davis' votes would automatically have gone to Corwin. After all, in New York there are four political parties that regularly appear on the ballot. In addition to Democrats and Republicans there are the Liberal and Conservative parties. "Third" parties are always a feature in New York politics.

Davis' single-digit showing was less of an impact than many people expected. The take-away from this is that the strength of the so-called Tea Party is waning and/or has been greatly exaggerated by the corporate news media.

Kathy Hochul's victory comes down to two factors. First, she was an exceptional candidate and ran a strong race. NY-26 is the reddest of red "safe" Republican districts with a heavily weighted GOP voter registration edge. Hochul won by attracting Republican votes, for many of them probably the first time in their life that they have cast a vote for a Democrat. This is a major achievement by Hochul. It should not be diminished by the corporate news media falling back on its simplistic, and incorrect, formula that Hochul's victory was because of the presence of the clownish Jack Davis.

Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, this was a microcosm referendum in a Republican district on Rep. Paul Ryan's Roadmap to America's Ruin and its plan to end Medicare as we know it. By all accounts, this was the defining issue in this race. This is a major GOP failure.

Rep. Paul Ryan's thin-skinned whining on political talk shows this morning complaining that Democrats "demagogued" on this issue are patently false — Democrats pointed out the simple truth that RyanCare would end Medicare as a federal guarantee and turn it into a fixed-rate voucher (coupon) system that would lose purchasing power over time without any checks on rising health-care costs which would leave retirees vulnerable in their waning years. Retirees do not want the "choice" of negotiating a maze of "options" between predatory health insurance companies that have no financial incentive to provide health-care coverage to them. They want their health-care coverage "guaranteed" and that is what Medicare provides. "Keep Your Hands Off My Medicare!" is now a defining issue in the 2012 campaign.

Tea-Publican ideologues have made a pledge to support Rep. Ryan's Roadmap to America's Ruin and its plan to end Medicare as we know it a litmus test in Tea-Publican politics. They see their ideological purity as being "brave." It is a delusional mutual suicide pact. After NY-26, we will learn this week just how many Tea-Publican senators are willing to follow their colleagues in the House over the cliff in ideological lockstep.

h/t The Agenda Project.