Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
Some recent polling in Arizona shows that the presidential race has narrowed to single digits, even though Obama has run a low-key grassroots operation in Arizona with little media presence. We are a bottom-tier priority state because we have the misfortune of being John McCain's home state. That sucks!
The Rasmussen (GOP leaning) Poll had McCain up by 21 points at the end of September (I thought it was an outlier poll at the time). But if you were to take their numbers at face value, Obama has shown phenomenal momentum in rapidly closing in on McCain in Arizona. At this rate, Obama can overtake McCain by Election Day.
From Pollster.com: 2008 Arizona Presidential General Election
| Pollster | Dates | N/Pop | McCain | Obama | Barr | Nader | Undecided | Other | Margin |
| N. Arizona U | 10/18-27/08 | 600 RV | 49 | 41 | – | – | 8 | – | +8R |
| Rasmussen | 10/26/08 | 500 LV | 51 | 46 | – | – | 2 | 1 | +5R |
| Myers Res/Grove (D) | 10/23-24/08 | 600 LV | 44 | 40 | 2 | 3 | 3 | – | +4R |
| Zimmerman-MrktngIntell | 10/16-19/08 | 408 LV | 44 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 10 | – | +2R |
And from Daily Kos:
Rasmussen. 10/26. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/29 results)
McCain (R) 51 (59)
Obama (D) 46 (38)
Zimmeran & Associates and Marketing Intelligence. 10/16-19. Likely voters, MoE 4.9% (No trend lines)
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 42
Myers Research & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Likely voters
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40
Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
Bruce Merrill is supposed to have an ASU/Cronkite Eight poll out this week. Daily Kos revealed that its R2K pollsters are in the field this week and will report an Arizona poll by the end of the week as well.
NBC's political team has changed Arizona to a "Leans" McCain state, as has Real Clear Politics and Pollster.com. Fox News political analyst Dick Morris has Arizona as a "tossup."Morris Maps the Election
Note to the Obama campaign: you may want to reconsider your strategy and show us some love this week to help Arizonan's shock McCain in his own backyard. How about some walk pieces or direct mail for the big GOTV weekend? How about a campaign visit instead of the fly-overs between Nevada and New Mexico? You can send us Bill Clinton, who came here for Governor Napolitano in 2006, or send Hillary Clinton – or send both. I don't care. Just show us the love, man! And Arizonans will return the love.
A little more presence in this state will help Democrats pick up two more congressional seats by putting Ann Kirkpatrick in CD 1 and Bob Lord in CD 3 over the top. Let's turn Arizona blue!
UPDATE 10/29/08: Bruce Merrill's ASU/Cronkite Eight poll is now out and McCain's lead is only 2% in Arizona, within the 3% margin of error for the poll. It's a toss-up in Arizona that will come down to turnout. Obama neck and neck with McCain in Arizona For internals of the poll, see HORIZON: Cronkite Eight/KAET Let's turn Arizona blue!
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