Pearce Recall Update: It all comes down to voter turnout – VOTE!

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

With only a few days left until voters head to the ballot box to decide the fate of Senate President Russell Pearce, a poll commissioned by the Arizona Capitol Times and ABC15 News shows the race is a dead heat. Poll: Lewis, Pearce neck-and-neck in recall contest – Arizona Capitol Times (subcription required):

Mesa Republican Jerry Lewis, who is seeking to unseat Pearce in the Nov. 8 recall election, is holding his own among fellow GOP voters, despite being heavily outspent by Pearce and his national fundraising prowess.

Lewis holds a 46 percent to 43 percent lead over Pearce in the historic recall contest, but the edge is within the poll’s margin of error.

“Statistically here, what we’ve got is a dead heat,” said Jeremy Moreland, a Valley pollster who conducted the survey. “Both Lewis and Pearce are within the margin of error of one another.”

The bottom line, Moreland said, is the poll doesn’t reveal a significant edge in support for either Lewis or Pearce by age, gender or religious affiliation.

The poll of 598 likely voters in Mesa’s District 18 shows that the Mormon community is deeply divided over the contest.

Lewis holds a slight lead among those who described themselves as Mormons, 47.5 percent to 45 percent.

Among the respondents, 160 considered themselves members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints while the rest did not.

[The autodial poll was conducted on Nov. 1 among 598 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.95 percent].

Interestingly, Republican Olivia Cortes, who dropped out of the race amid accusations that she was a “sham” candidate, is pulling some votes, although support for her is small — a mere 2.5 percent. Cortes’ name will still appear on the ballot.

The poll specifically stated that Cortes is no longer a candidate, so those who said they support her may be the result of user error or may be trying to skew the poll, Moreland said.

But depending on how tight the race is, any vote that goes to Cortes could still have some impact.

* * *

In short, the battle for the Legislative District 18 Senate seat has tightened up. This means the race’s outcome largely depends on whose campaign can bring out its supporters to the polls, and last-minute campaigning over the next few days could make a difference.

Those extra efforts could include hitting the campaign trail, knocking on doors alongside a high-profile endorser, and more importantly, ensuring that supporters mail their ballots or drop by polling precincts on Election Day.

For those of you living in the state of Maricopa, whatever plans you had for this weekend, cancel them. Get yourself over to the Jerry Lewis for Arizona Senate 2011 campaign or Citizens for a Better Arizona and volunteer to phone bank and canvas neighborhoods, and if you can, volunteer through the close of polls on election day. This is too important.

If Arizona is going to begin to reverse its image as a third-world banana republic it begins with the recall of  the most corrupt politician in the state of Arizona, "King" Russell Pearce. His defeat will send a shock wave around the world.

After the Senate Star Chamber president presided over the violation of the Arizona Constitution and the rule of law in removing the independent chair of the Arizona Independent Redistricitng Commission, this is the first opportunity the public will have to express their disapproval at the ballot box.

There should be 100% of ballots returned by Democrats for Jerry Lewis. No excuses, just do it.

And for you independent voters, the contempt and disdain that "King" Russell Pearce has demonstrated for independents in Arizona should lead you to turn out en masse to vote to remove him from office.

Note: As of the latest voter-registration figures, there are more 71,000 voters in District 18. Roughly 38 percent of them are Republicans, 26 percent are Democrats while 35 percent are independents.

Roughly 27,000 early ballots were requested and so far, more than 13,000 had been mailed back as of November 2.