Poll Anxiety and Electoral Signals

One of my favorite political analysists is Rachel Bitecofer, who publishes the SubStack newsletter The Cycle, among other projects. She is fiercely partisan and firmly on team democracy, but she is a hyper-qualified PhD in political behavior and statistical methodology, and just plain has lots of common sense,

Here in Southern Arizona had a chance to speak with her directly at a TheDGT.org regular Monday event not too long ago (just an example of the great programming we offer for just $20 a year!). If you want a good example of how fucking awesome she is, take a look at the video of that event:

So, that’s why when Rachel speaks, I tend to listen.

She points out that people freaking out about the Presidential polling for ’24 at this point is, well, pointless.

First, in order for the polling we’re seeing on Trump to pan out, you have to believe the two-time popular vote loser is on track to win the popular vote for the first time ever, probably as a convicted felon.

Second: you have to ignore the results of the 2022 midterms, the consistent Democrat performances in 2023 specials, the death of the Red Wave in 2022, Beshear’s massive margin of victory in Kentucky, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, AND Democrats flipping back control of the Virginia’s House of Delegates after losing it prior to Roe Repeal in 2021. Not to mention the dominance of the Democrats’ win on Ohio Issue 1 and the Kansas abortion initiative.

Let me be as clear as possible about the weight I, a trained and PhD credentialed political scientist who studies elections and voter behavior systematically assigns to the election outcomes compared to polls:
[quoting her own prior statement] “If the situation was opposite and Biden was leading the polls, but Democrats were losing swing races in 2022 and 2023, I would be moving onto stage 1 of my bug out plan.”

Here’s her chart that sums up the electoral signal against the noise quite nicely:

The signal is very clear that people are NOT buying what Trump and his MAGA mob are selling when you simply look at the actual election results available to analyze. MAGA candidates are losing elections across the board and the signal is only growing stronger.

Rachel also points out that at this same point of time in prior election cycles that Romney was beating incumbent Obama and Kerry was beating incumbent Dubya. The power of incumbency is a very real thing and very much matters when people actually start voting, as opposed to kvetching to a pollster.

That power of incumbency is another reason that the idea of Biden giving up and not running in favor of some untested candidate is just absurd. Just stop with that noise, please! Biden may be old, and he may be kinda boring, and he may seem foolish or frail at times, but he’s led an incredibly effective Administration despite some extraordinary challenges: he beat the COVID crisis; he helped Ukraine destroy 90% of Russia’s pre-war military; he handled our alliances and global affairs with great determination and skill; he created the very best post-pandemic economic recovery on earth; and, he passed numerous landmark bills through a fractious and closely divided Congress. I’d say he’s doing pretty well for a man who belongs in a nursing home being spoon fed gruel (if you believe the Trumpanzees’ rhetoric…)!

Keep calm and carry on. Team democracy is doing pretty damn well against team fascism. Keep doing what you have been doing to aid the cause; if you are feeling great anxiety, do more. We can come through this horrible passage of our unfolding history if we stick together, believe in those principles that make America the greatest nation on earth, and work our fucking tails off to shove this fascist eructation back down Trump’s fat orange throat.