Public Policy Polling: AZ Governor’s race a dead heat

Public Policy Polling released a poll on Tuesday that shows the Governor’s race is a dead heat. You can view the poll here (.pdf).

Press release from Progress Now Arizona:

New Poll Shows Democrat DuVal a Contender for Arizona Governor’s Seat

PHOENIX — The 2014 Arizona governor’s race is anybody’s ballgame.

In a head-to-head matchup, Democratic nominee Fred DuVal and Republican Doug Ducey (if he lives up to his presumptive frontrunner status and wins his primary tonight), are tied, according to a new poll by Public Policy Polling on behalf of ProgressNow Arizona.

Ducey has been badly wounded by opponents in his own party who raised numerous questions about his business ethics and background, and the poll shows Arizona voters are ready for a change of direction.

You can view the poll here (.pdf).

The text of polling memo is below:

From: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties

Subject: Arizona Governor’s Race Starts Out Tied

Date: August 26, 2014

A new Public Policy Polling survey of Arizona voters finds that the likely general election match up for Governor between Democrat Fred DuVal and Republican Doug Ducey starts out as a tie.

Key findings from the survey include:

-DuVal and Ducey are both at 35%, with 12% of voters saying they support Libertarian Barry Hess. The high level of support for Hess reflects the unusual amounts of support we’re finding for third party candidates across the country right now as voters are unhappy with both parties. DuVal overcomes Arizona’s GOP party registration advantage due to a 16 point lead with independent voters.

-Ducey is entering the general election badly damaged by the divisive primary campaign. Only 26% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 41% who have a negative one. He’s at 17/57 with independents and a weak 43/24 even with Republican voters. DuVal remains largely undefined with 60% of voters having no opinion about him and those who do have one pretty evenly split.

-Democrats have an opportunity in Arizona because voters are unhappy with Governor Brewer and the current direction of the state. Only 41% of voters see Brewer favorably to 47% who have an unfavorable opinion of her. And there’s a general feeling that the state is on the wrong track- 59% of voters express that sentiment to only 30% who think the state is headed in the right direction under its current Republican leadership.

An unpopular incumbent and a damaged Republican nominee are combining to make the Arizona Governor’s office a great opportunity for a Democratic pick up this fall.

PPP interviewed 588 likely voters on August 24th and 25th on behalf of ProgressNow Arizona. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.0%

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