Republicans Are Provably Lying About Voting By Mail Enabling Voter Fraud

The GOP, especially here in Arizona, have consistently attacked our no-excuse voting by mail (which over 80% of Arizona’s voters use) as insecure and enabling voting fraud. The Arizona GOP House Caucus even recently unanimously voted to ELIMINATE this overwhelmingly popular means of voting.

They have lied to their own voters about vote by mail so often and consistently, that GOP participation fell off a cliff – likely costing them votes and elections. They have even repeatedly alleged in elections lawsuits that voting by mail was a source of fraud, and never been able to provide ANY evidence in court to substantiate their allegations.

Now we clearly know why they haven’t been able to provide any proof of their claims: THERE IS NONE.

It is an article of faith among those who do not believe Donald Trump lost in 2020 that mailing ballots to voters increases illegal voting — often called voter fraud.

“Before the machines were introduced, vote riggers needed a way to cheat and it always involved generating LOOSE BALLOTS,” read a recent post on a pro-Trump Telegram “election education” channel. “It’s possible and therefore it happens,” said a nearby post.

It is understandable why disappointed Trump supporters are wary of mailed-out ballots. The Covid-19 pandemic led to a historic expansion of their use as a way to protect voters and election workers. By the time the 2020 election ended, 73 million Americans — 46 percent of all voters nationwide — had voted with a mailed-out ballot. That volume was nearly triple the voters who received a ballot by mail in 2018’s general election.

But articles of faith are not facts. As the 2024 presidential cycle revs up and Trump, the likely GOP nominee, keeps attacking elections, it is worth revisiting the most extensive national study by political scientists that looked at whether mailed-out ballots have any relation to voter fraud. In a word, their answer was “no.” That conclusion was based on comparing incidents of illegal voting during the two decades before the 2020 presidential election to the increasing use of mailed-out ballots during that time.

The Fulcrum, Steven Rosenfeld

An analysis of 20 years of voting data concludes that voting by mail does not increase the extremely rare incidents of voter fraud.

From the paper’s abstract (bolding added):

We estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of these states where registered voters are automatically sent ballots by mail (vote-by-mail states, VBM). We then compare the number of voter fraud cases in RBM (VBM) states to the number of cases in non-RBM (non-VBM) states, using two approaches standard in the social sciences. We find no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall. Between 2016 and 2019, RBM (VBM) states reported similar fraud rates to non-RBM (non-VBM) states. Moreover, we estimate Washington would have reported 73 more cases of fraud between 2011 and 2019 had it not introduced its VBM law. While our analysis of the data considers only two of many possible approaches, we argue our findings are unlikely were fraud more common when elections are held by mail.

Statistics and Public Policy Volume 8, 2021 – Issue 1, “Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail” by Jonathan Auerbach and Steve Pierson.

So now you know. They are lying. They are provably lying. Call them out. Stand up. Don’t let them lie in your presence. You have the real evidence.

Voter fraud is extremely rare and has never changed the outcome of an election. When it does happen, it tends to be affluent and self-entitled people – i.e. Republicans – who do it. Vote by mail does not increase that already very low rate of voter fraud.

The GOP are simply making up excuses for why they are losing elections to tell their base that the reason they are losing elections is down to voter fraud. That’s a lie. Their loses are due to promoting unpopular positions and policies that appeal only to their most extreme base, and nominating terrible candidates who are simply awful people. Want to win elections, Republicans? Take more popular positions and promote better candidates. It’s really just that simple.