Sen. Cap’n Al Melvin plays ‘spin doctor’ in the Star

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Sen. Cap'n Al Melvin plays "spin doctor" today in the Arizona Daily Star with this deceptive guest opinion in which he tries to make lemonade out of lemons. State reaps benefits of Republican Legislature's pro-business decisions:

Arizona is growing jobs faster than just about any state in the country. A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows only 20 states grew jobs in August. Arizona came in second, by percentage over the month before, with 15,400 new jobs.

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Moody's Analytics, an economic consulting firm, likes the look of Arizona going forward. Its study released in late September predicts our state to grow jobs by 1.2 percent, one of the best numbers in America.

Oh, really? Here is how Arizona's economic forecast was reported last week in the Arizona Republic, Arizona jobs forecast in 2011, 2012 worse than originally projected:

Thursday's report includes some highlights, notably that Arizona employers are expected to add more jobs than they cut in 2011 – the first year that has happened since 2007. In addition, analysts predicted that some sectors, including health care and education, will add more positions than earlier expected.

According to state figures, Arizona is expected to gain 15,500 non-farm jobs in 2011, compared with last year. In 2012, the state is projected to gain 29,900 jobs over 2011. In April, the state economists predicted that Arizona would gain 17,300 jobs in 2011 and 34,600 jobs in 2012.

Although Arizona will add fewer jobs than expected in 2011, the job growth rate predicted in April will remain the same, 0.7 percent. For 2012, the state's projected job growth rate fell from the 1.4 percent which was forecast in April, to Thursday's revised estimate of 1.2 percent.

Although job creation is much better than the job losses Arizona recorded in 2008, 2009 and 2010, companies are nowhere near generating the number of jobs that the state needs to recover. The state lost has 324,000 jobs since the recession began in December 2007, Arizona State University economist Lee McPheters has said.

Not so rosy a picture, is it now "spin doctor"? That 1.2 percent number that Cap'n Al claims is "one of the best numbers in America" was actually a substantial reduction from previous projections, and is nowhere near generating the number of jobs that the state needs to recover. Oops! Caught red-handed playing spin doctor.

Here are some other news reports from just this past week that Cap'n Al Melvin really hopes you have not seen or read that demonstrate Arizona's economy is circling the drain under Republican "leadership."

● Outlook dim for long-term jobless:

For more Americans, being out of work has become a semi-permanent condition.

Nearly one-third of the unemployed – nearly 4.5 million people – have had no job for a year or more. That's a record high. Many are older workers who have found it especially hard to find jobs.

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And economists say their prospects won't brighten much even after the economy starts to strengthen and hiring picks up. Even if they can find a job, it will likely pay far less than their old ones did.

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"It's a serious threat," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "A growing proportion of the labor force is becoming disenfranchised."

Long-term unemployment sets this recession and weak recovery apart from any other period since the Great Depression.

● Downturn may slow predicted 'Sun Corridor' boom:

With a "lost decade" hanging over the region's economy, the "Sun Corridor" from Prescott to Tucson will grow more slowly and draw at least 900,000 fewer people than originally forecast, experts say.

When the Sun Corridor idea first surfaced in 2006, planners predicted that what's known as a "megapolitan" area of 10 million people would exist there by 2040. The Sun Corridor is to be one of 10 megapolitan areas in the country.

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Marshall Vest, however, predicts that even the smaller population forecast will be a long time materializing because the hangover from the 2008 financial crisis and the subsequent recession have been so severe. Such economic indicators as building permits and nonfarm employment are not expected to return to normal levels until 2015 or 2016.

"The financial crisis that we're still working our way through could take a decade, if history is any guide," said Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at UA's Eller College of Management.

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"Confidence remains at recession lows, and there is little confidence in our political leaders' ability to make things better. In Arizona, population is not growing, and there are enough vacant houses to accommodate an entire decade of normal growth."

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Nonfarm employment statewide peaked at 2.68 million back in 2007 and was down by 11.7 percent to 2.366 million by the third quarter of 2010. The center's forecast shows that the peak job figure won't return until the third quarter of 2015, he said.

● Census: Housing bust worst since Depression: 

The American dream of homeownership has felt its biggest drop since the Great Depression, according to new 2010 census figures released Thursday.

The analysis by the Census Bureau found the homeownership rate fell to 65.1 percent last year. While that level remains the second highest decennial rate, analysts say the U.S. may never return to its mid-decade housing boom peak in which nearly 70 percent of occupied households were owned by their residents.

The reason: a longer-term economic reality of tighter credit, prolonged job losses and reduced government involvement.

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Nationwide, the homeownership rate fell to 65.1 percent, or 76 million occupied housing units that were owned by their residents, from 66.2 percent in 2000. That drop-off is the largest since 1940, when homeownership plummeted 4.2 percentage points during the Great Depression to a low of 43.6 percent.

● Maricopa County tops list for home vacancies: 

New nationwide data shows just how profoundly the housing boom and bust left an impression on metro Phoenix.

Maricopa County has the highest overall number and percentage of vacant homes among the 10 most populous counties in the U.S., according to census data released Thursday.

Almost 14 percent of all homes are empty in Maricopa County. The data shows 227,696 single-family homes, condominiums and apartments were empty when last year's census was taken.

For comparison, Tucson has about 230,000 housing units. So Maricopa County's vacancies are the equivalent to an empty city the size of Tucson.

● Phoenix-area real estate collapse echoed troubles:

A new Arizona Republic analysis, which maps out every home in default in the region over the past five years, is the first comprehensive look at the wave of foreclosures that has swept the Valley since the market began its steep decline in 2007.

The analysis, based on data from Phoenix foreclosure-information service AZ Bidder, plots individual foreclosures and overall trends by year.

It shows how the Valley's foreclosure crisis was more than one crisis. Foreclosures arose in waves, driven first by problematic mortgages, then by the job woes of the recession and now by lingering economic effects being felt in expensive neighborhoods.

The data also hints at where some homeowners may see the long-declining values of their homes begin to rise.

Some areas already are seeing their annual number of foreclosures decline. With that, a few now see slight increases in home prices, or at least much smaller decreases. In other areas, foreclosures persist, lingering chapters in the ongoing story of the crash.

Arizonans need to inform and educate themselves against prevaricators like Cap'n Al Melvin, and the corporate media like the the Arizona Daily Star which give him space to spin his web of deceit.

UPDATE: Yet another depressing report on the state of Arizona's economy. Prices for Tucson homes fall to near 2000 levels:

Home prices in Tucson took another dive in September, plunging to levels not seen in more than 10 years.

The median sales price – at $117,500 – reached its lowest point since February 2001, numbers from the Tucson Association of Realtors Multiple Listing Service show.

That's about 19 percent lower than last September and 48 percent lower than November 2005, when the median peaked at $226,465. The median sales price is the point where half of homes sell for less and half sell for more.

Prices have fallen steadily for the past six months, with only an occasional uptick since the beginning of the year.