Don’t read too much into this one. I actually thought Obama’s SOTU was pretty good, as these things go.
While listening to the SOTU, however, I was doing something I never do well — multi-tasking. I’m not really sure anyone does that well.
This time, however, there was a funny twist. I was reading Patrick L. Smith’s post at Salon, Distortions, lies and omissions: The New York Times won’t tell you the real story behind Ukraine, Russian economic collapse. At the exact time Obama was touting the success of his sanctions policy against Russia and the disastrous economic reality Russia now faces, I was reading this passage from Smith:
Last week Fitch, the credit-rating agency, downgraded Russia’s status to BBB, putting it a few notches away from junk status. This is hardball, we had better recognize: You cannot shove the world’s No. 8 economy into the gutter and expect it to land there alone.
My view is closer to Smith’s than to Obama’s, but it’s the irony here that was notable. I really was reading Smith’s passage at the exact same time Obama was making his statement, which for me sort of rammed home Smith’s point in a depressing way.
For a little more substance on this subject, follow me after the jump.
I go back and forth on Smith. I generally struggle to follow his train of thought when I read his columns. Sometimes I feel it’s because he thinks on a higher plane than I do. Other times I think it’s because he’s just not that good a communicator. I continue to read him because he’s always willing to take the bullshit we’re being fed by the media head-on.
Today’s piece was one of Smith’s better ones. He makes a point that few are willing to consider, but which all of us should find troubling:
A note arrived a few days ago from one of my best informants in Europe. He had just met across a hotel dining table with a senior German executive, and the topic quickly turned to the crisis in Ukraine and the sanctions regime Washington has imposed on Russia.
I can do no better than give you the pertinent passage in the note:
“… I spoke … breakfast time in Europe… with the head of one of the largest companies in Germany. This declaration was one of the first items he mentioned. I took notes—because it is one of my clients—and here is what he said: ‘It is urgent for Europe to bring Obama and the people making the decisions behind him back to reality. If not, this will spiral first into a financial collapse, which will slam into all of Europe, and then who knows where it goes after that? Everywhere, far-right nationalist forces are building. Look at the last U.S. Congressional elections, and think what is coming. Will America ever have had a more nationalist Congress? Le Pen would be right at home in this crowd. The course we are on now is folly. Can’t they see that?’”
I wish I could say the German exec’s question is a good one, but the grim answer is too obvious. They can see nothing in Washington. We witness the single most reckless, destructive foreign policy this administration has yet devised, comparable in magnitude to Bush II’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003.
Smith has a tiny following on the pages of Salon. Those far-right nationalist forces in America he references, Ted Cruz, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Joni Ernst and their ilk, have a tremendous following. Ernst gave what easily qualifies as the far-right nationalist response to Obama’s SOTU. A few thousand read Smith’s column today. Millions listened to Ernst’s nationalist rant.
Think about it.
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We are now trying with Russia the same kind of economic warfare that we have waged against Iran for several years. My sense is that Russia and China will continue their economic ties and that natural gas deliveries to Europe will slow. The big question is how the Russian middle class reacts. Right now, Putin seems to be enjoying high approval ratings inside Russia. And the fact that we are trying to cause a recession in Russia might not play out too much, since it appears that the rest of Europe is also headed for another recession.
The Obama administration has been pretty determined in going after Iran, Syria and now Russia itself. We have been trying to put Russia in a box, so far, with pretty solid results. How this blowbacks on us with Europe and Asia remains to be seen.
Not only is Russia the #8 economy in the world, it is still a Nation capable of awesome military power should they decide to use it. In other words, poking the Russian Bear is not like pushing around a country with lesser potential like North Korea, Iran or Cuba. Russia has been dumping US dollars recently and it is affecting our trade balance, so I suspect that whatever effect damaging the Russian economy has on Europe, we are going to also feel it. Given the fragile nature of our recovery, that is probably not a good thing.
President Obama’s background was community activism, and he surrounded himself with like thinking advisors. I don’t think he ever changed that vision which has caused his ability to conduct foreign policy to be short sighted and limited in scope. I don’t think he sees how interconnected the world is and that what seems like a good idea (sanctions on Russia) can have long term affects that sneak back around and bite you in the rear. Community activism rarely would have such consequences. Sadly, I also think he is too arrogant to learn from his mistakes.
You talk with concern about how the world sees us: I don’t think they hold us in particularly high regard right now. Our practice of foreign policy has been amateurish and arrogant for a long time. We act with little regard for likely consequences of our actions, and our view is very short term. We are constantly surprised that things don’t turn out as we expected them to. I don’t expect it to get better anytime soon.