Special Session Update: Do or Die Time? Or We’ll Just Change The Law And Do Whatever The Hell We Want

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

The Senate Appropriations Committee passed the "Sham-Wow!" budget deal on a 6-3 vote Monday, setting up a crucial vote on Tuesday.

The Arizona Guardian headline today says "Do or die time for Senate budget today and its not looking good" (subscription required). "The Senate's chances for smooth passage of a budget including a sales tax referral were dimming late Monday as Sen. Carolyn Allen continued to be a no vote."

Secretary of State Ken Bennett told The Arizona Republic over the weekend that he had to have the matters to be referred to the ballot by 8:00 a.m. on Tuesday for he and county elections officials across the state to have enough time to prepare for a Nov. 3 special election, and to comply with federal and state election laws. Bennett previously said this was July 31, but he somehow keeps moving the "drop dead" date.

On Monday, Bennett said he could give legislators more time if they agreed to some temporary changes in state election laws. Support for split taxes shaky:

The already-passed deadline for supporters and foes of the ballot measure to file publicity-pamphlet statements would have to be extended, for one thing, he said. Those pamphlets are mailed to 1.7 million households with registered voters.

Beyond that is the requirement for early ballots to go out 26 days before the election to those who want to vote by mail.

Bennett said that if lawmakers don't put something on the ballot today, the only way to have the tax-boost proposal and a related measure on the Nov. 3 ballot would be to cut the time period for getting early ballots into the hands of voters, which could make it impossible for Arizonans in the military or overseas to get their ballots returned.

If they don't make the Nov. 3 ballot, Maricopa County Elections Director Karen Osborne said the soonest voting machines used for local and school board elections could be reprogrammed is Dec. 8.

We'll just change the law and do whatever the hell we want. Talk about a home field advantage.

It is all academic if Republicans cannot muster the 16 votes necessary to pass the decoupled "Sham-Wow!" budget deal in the Senate, and that appears shaky at best.

[T]he future for the newest maneuver hangs by a thread.

Sen. Carolyn Allen, R-Scottsdale, who could be the necessary 16th vote to put a tax increase on the budget, said she intends to stay home today. Allen, who hurt her knee, said her doctor told her that she risked permanent injury or possible surgery if she moved around too much.

As previously reported, Sen. Allen has said that  “If I were to come – and that is the big if – I would only vote to put the tax on the ballot,” Allen said. “I refuse to vote for the bad deal that this governor has bought into.” Allen is referring to the $400 million in individual and corporate income tax cuts that were included in the budget awaiting action in the Senate. She said that lowering taxes only adds to the deficit. “How they justify that in their pee wee brains I do not know.”

I have not reviewed the language of the bills passed out of the Senate Appropriations Committee so I do not know whether the bills contain the package of four amendments insisted upon by Sen. Jack Harper, R-Surprise, to secure his vote. I will assume they do. As previously reported, Sen. Jack Harper has conditioned his support for a sales tax referral to the acceptance of his series of four budget amendments. Harper wants to gut Tucson's Rio Nuevo TIF tax district, which should cause defections from Sen. Al Melvin and Sen. Jonathan Paton from Tucson who have publicly stated they want to preserve the Rio Nuevo funding. Or will they betray Tucson to achieve a budget deal? If Harper does not get his amendments, he walks.

As previously reported, "Sen. Jay Tibshraeny refused to support another bill in the package because one provision would reduce the tax burden on businesses for future voter-approved school and local bond issues and overrides. Tribshraeny, a former Chandler mayor, said he tried to convince colleagues giving that break to companies is a bad idea, not just from a public policy perspective but politically. "If they're going to end up paying less, their constituents are going end up paying more."

Sens. Ron Gould and Sen. Pamela Gorman have been adament that they will not suport the sales tax referral.

Speculation has been that the decoupled "Sham-Wow!" budget deal may lose votes in the House which previously passed the same budget as a single package. "I think there's going to be trouble in the House," said Sen. Jack Harper, who supports the package (with his amendments).

Rep. Carl Seel, R-Phoenix, has said that if there were two separate bills last time, he would have voted for the tax cuts and against the tax referral. And he said that if the bill is split now, "that's a recipe to kill the referral."

The loss of just two votes in the House not only kills the referral but, in all likelihood, blows up the deal, because the Accidental Governor won't sign the rest of the budget package – including the tax cuts – without it.

There are simply too many moving parts to predict how this vote is going to turn out, but the odds are not promising. To quote Johnny Cash, "I hear that train a comin', it's rolling round the bend…"