Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
The Tucson Weekly has its "Scramble Watch" to engage in wild political speculation. Here we just call it SWAG – "silly wild ass guesses" (with a measure of fact and solid rumors). Today's focus is on the potential and rumored Democratic candidates.
For those of you who would like to play along at home, here is a link to the Arizona Secretary of State's Campaign Finance – Committee Search page. For a general search, go to "committee search – by type" and use the "select" cursor to select "candidate" and "2010." When the page comes up, scroll all the way down to the bottom of the page to find the most recent entry, and work upwards.
(Note to Secretary of State Ken Bennett: please change this program to most recent entry first)
Governor
It is widely expected that Attorney General Terry Goddard will run for Governor. No committee has been filed. Former Arizona Democratic Party Chair and 2006 candidate for U.S. Senate Jim Pederson is exploring running for Governor. No committee has been filed. Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon is often rumored to be a potential candidate for Governor. This week Mayor Gordon unveiled a lofty 17-point green plan for Phoenix. Could he be planning a "Green Gordon for Governor" campaign? (that's why we call it SWAG people). Rep. David Bradley (LD 28) recently filed an exploratory committee entitled "Bradley for Arizona" that does not disclose the office sought. Rumors have been circulating for some time that Bradley may be interested in running for Governor. Only he knows his intentions. Bradley recently had this guest opinion published in the Arizona Daily Star Lawmakers on all sides must make hard choices.
Secretary of State
Recently resigned Senator Steve Gallardo (LD 13) is widely believed to be running for Secretary of State. He still has an active state senate exploratory committee. Former Arizona Real Estate Commissioner Sam Wercinski is exploring running for Secretary of State. He has been appearing at Democratic functions across the state. No committee has been filed. Former Representative Ted Downing (LD 28) is rumored to be exploring running for Secretary of State or, alternatively, running for the open House seat in LD 28 being vacated by David Bradley, who is termed out. Downing has filed an exploratory committee that does not disclose the office sought. First term City of Tucson Councilman Rodney Glassman is rumored to be exploring running for Secretary of State. No committee has been filed.
Attorney General
I have previously addressed this race. SWAG re: 2010 Arizona Attorney General race Tim Nelson, Democratic candidate for Maricopa County Attorney in 2008, is exploring running for Attorney General. No committee has been filed. House Minority Leader David Lujan is exploring running for Attorney General. He has filed an exploratory committee. Deputy Attorney General Vince Rabago (former Pima County Democratic Party Chair and current Vice Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party) is exploring running for Attorney General. No committee has been filed.
Treasurer
Andrei Cherny, former Assistant Attorney General, political advisor and speech writer, author ("The Candy Bombers" and "The Next Deal: The Future of Public Life in the Information Age") and president of the national public policy journal and think tank Democracy, is believed to be exploring running for Treasurer. He has filed an exploratory committee that does not disclose the office sought. Cherny recently had this opinion published in the Tucson Citizen Brewer on tax hike: Take it from a Democrat, this is the wrong direction
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Jason Williams, who was the Democratic candidate for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2006, is back again for another try. He has filed his committee. Oddly, I have not heard any SWAG about any other Democrats seeking this office. Aren't we supposed to be the pro-education party? I expected more interest.
(h/t to Bill Scheel) Penny Kotterman, former head of the Arizona Education Association, is another candidate exploring running for Superintendent of Public Instruction.
State Mine Inspector
I propose a constitutional amendment to eliminate this office as an elected position and make it an executive position appointed by the Governor. No one ever knows for whom they are voting.
Southern Arizona Legislative Races (committee filings only)
LD 27
Rep. Carmen Cajero Bedford has filed an exploratory committee for the Senate after being termed out of the House. Bob Gilby, the husband of former Pima County Democratic Party Chair and former First Vice Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party, Donna Branch-Gilby, has filed a committee for one of the open House seats in 2010.
LD 28
Ted Prezelski over at R-Cubed blog has filed a committee for the open house seat being vacated by David Bradley, who is termed out. As previously mentioned, former Rep. Ted Downing has filed an exploratory committee that does not disclose the office sought. He may be exploring returning to the House where he previously served.
U.S. Senate
Stuart Starky, a junior high school teacher from Phoenix who was the Democratic challenger to Senator John McCain in 2004, is back again for another try. He has been appearing at Democratic functions across the state. John Adams, Brig. Gen. Ret., for whom some activists started a "draft John Adams" web site, has stated that he is not a candidate. Perhaps Jim Pederson is also exploring his options for another U.S. Senate run after his unsuccessful bid against Senator Jon Kyl in 2006.
If anyone has any SWAG to share, that is what the comment section is for. Fact or solid rumors are preferred.
NB: revised 3/13/09
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I don’t live in Arizona, but my understanding is (from what I’ve read) that Gordon can beat McCain if he chose to run. The race would be tough, but he can win. His approval rating is very high as mayor, and AZ is trending more and more blue.
True?
AzBM – Shadegg almost retired last year. While the public reason for his return was a plea from the GOP caucus in the House, speculation ran that said Shadegg was told that McCain’s Senate seat would not be available.
I’d be surprised if he didn’t move on this cycle to another office (Gov, USS if McCain drops out, or even to simply take a break).
Thane – I think that, regardless of who the Rep nominee is next year, Mitchell is not going to run for Senate. That was just idle speculation on my part.
It would be *nice* to see him beat Hayworth again, but like you, I don’t see Hayworth beating McCain.
If McCain steps aside, however, you’ll see all sorts of “name” candidates from both major parties test the waters for a run – Shadegg, Flake, Hayworth, and maybe Brewer on the GOP side; Goddard, Pederson, Giffords, Gordon, or maybe even Grijalva or Pastor on the Democratic side.
However, unless McCain decides to retire, we look to be stuck with another McCain v. Stuart Starky campaign.
Yawn.
Since this is SWAG I will report a rumor I recently heard but tend to discount, that is Shadegg may be ready to leave the House for another office – perhaps run for Governor, or run for Senate should McCain opt out.
Thane if you like ranked choice voting you should speak to former Rep. Ted Downing. He also has a plan for “random” mathematical redistricting that is far too complex to explain here, but it would create more competitive districts. Ted will need to run it by DOJ first.
If you all are looking for a senate candidate with “rock star” appeal, good luck with that. Run down the list of elected officials in Arizona in both political parties and see if you can find one. We have some of the most bland and uninspiring politicians in the country. I will settle for a competent manager at this point.
I’ll make some comments on Craig’s comment above. Hayworth/McCain – eh, I bet McCain would win, years of JD complaining about horrible illegal aliens just can’t sell that well (although it works for Arpaio somehow). As for Mitchell beating McCain, I find Mitchell as a Democrat as uninspiring as Shadegg or Franks as a Republican – post election Republicans and Democrats seek out the safest issues and will rarely venture into what is thought to be (but probably isn’t) a controversial issue such as the legalization of marijuana (which Terry Goddard is kinda, sorta, maybe willing to discuss).
I’d love to see an Arizona SOS candidate adopt passage of Ranked Choice Voting for some office (Corporation Commission or SOS, perhaps Mine Inspector).
http://www.fairvote.org/?page=19
AZBlueMeanie –
I’d love to see Harry go for it. Yes, some of his votes have ticked me off, but I think he’s a genuine good guy. I may disagree with him on some issues, but I’d be happy to vote for him for Senate (and not in a “well, he’s better than McCain” way, either.)
And if JD Hayworth, as rumored, makes a primary run at McCain, I’d be *ecstatic* to see Harry beat Hayworth again.
On the other hand, I don’t know how well Harry’s appeal would go over in a statewide campaign – one of his great strengths is that people who meet him, like him. In a geographically compact place like CD5, that works well; with a population as dispersed as AZ’s though, it may not be so easy for that to come across in the TV spots needed to run statewide.
Still, “Harry Mitchell, United States Senator” does sound good…
Craig – I think Harry Mitchell would be a better choice. He practically has 100% name identification in Maricopa County (and his numbers are positive) where two-thirds of the voters in this state reside. Harry wins in a Republican-voter registration district because he is a moderate Democrat with cross-over appeal to moderate Republicans. He can infuriate liberals in the Democratic Party (which actually works to his advantage), but for whom else are liberal Democrats going to vote? A “blue dog” Democrat who votes with us most of the time, and puts us over 60 votes for cloture in the Senate? Or reelect John McCain who votes against us 95-100% of the time and who has never done a damn thing for the state of Arizona? If Harry just breaks even in Maricopa County the rest of the state could be enough to put him over the top.
Penny Kotterman, former head of the Arizona Education Association, is the other candidate for Supt. of Public Instruction.
Giffords ain’t running for the Senate.
FYI – there is another Dem looking at Superintendent of Public Ed, but I’ve forgotten her name (not being coy, I’ve only heard the name once, and I was busy covering last week’s rally at the Capitol).
As for the other races, I can confirm the rumors, in that I’ve heard them too (don’t have enough info to confirm accuracy though).
One I’d love to see is Gabrielle Giffords taking a shot at McCain’s seat. With Napolitano out of the picture, I think Giffords would best be able to beat McCain. That’s not even a rumor though, just wishful thinking.
BTW – I second the motion on Mine Inspector, though instead of an executive appointment, I’d fold it into DEQ, Department of Mines and Mineral Resources, or something else appropriate as a professional job.