Tariffs

Republican economic policies cause their constituents to fall farther behind the rest of the country economically

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John Harwood at CNBC has an important report on a new Brookings Institution study documenting that “economic divergence is as central to 21st century polarization as race, gender and religion.” These charts show how Democrats represent the growing modern economy – and how Republicans are left behind:

[T]his year’s midterm elections affirmed this much: in Washington, the two parties now speak for dramatically different segments of the American economy.

Republicans represent the smaller, fading segment, with less-educated, more-homogenous work forces reliant on traditional manufacturing, agriculture and resource extraction. Democrats represent the larger, growing one, fueled by finance, professional services and digital innovation in diverse urban areas.

Screen Shot 2018-11-20 at 5.48.21 AMh/t 270towin.com – 2018 House Election Interactive Map. Note: A geographic map is deceptive, because there is a lot of “big empty” space in the middle of the country and in the west. A cartogram map weighted for population is more accurate, but one is not yet available for the 2018 congressional election.

Donald Trump carried 2,584 counties across the country, but calculations by scholars at the Brookings Institution showed that the 472 counties Hillary Clinton carried accounted for nearly two-thirds of U.S. economic output.

Now, new Brookings calculations show the same from 2018 House elections. With a few races still undecided, districts won by Democrats account for 61 percent of America’s gross domestic product, districts won by Republicans 38 percent.

BROOKINGS_DIST_BARS_0

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June jobs report and the Trump vs. The World Trade War

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The June jobs report released today may be the apex of job growth after 93 consecutive months of job creation — the longest streak on record — because today marks the official start of the Trump vs. The World Trade War. As Trump’s trade war starts, China vows retaliation:

The United States imposed the first duties on $34 billion in Chinese goods early Friday, officially launching a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. Moments later, the Chinese side fired back, accusing the United States of violating WTO rules setting off “the largest trade war in economic history to date.”

Cadet bone spurs says Trade Wars Are ‘Good, and Easy to Win’, but history says otherwise. “Trade wars are never won. Trade wars are lost by both sides,” Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska has warned. “[I]t will kill American jobs — that’s what every trade war ultimately does. So much losing.” More about this later in the post.

Steve Benen has the June jobs report. Job growth remains steady, but jobless rate ticks higher:

Ahead of this morning’s new jobs report, most projections pointed to totals of roughly 200,000 new jobs last month. Those projections turned out to be correct.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the economy added 213,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate inched a little higher, climbing from 3.8% to 4%.

JuneJobs

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‘Trump’s Trade War’ rattles world markets, will cost American consumers more money

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President Trump on Thursday directed the US trade representative to level tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese imports. Why Trump’s tariffs on China are a big deal:

In the next 15 days, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will publish a list of products that his team intends to hit with tariffs. It’s not clear how high the individual tariffs will be.

The United States also plans to impose new investment restrictions and take action against China at the World Trade Organization.

The trade conflict between China and the U.S. escalated, with Beijing announcing its first retaliation against metals levies hours after President Donald Trump outlined fresh tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports and pledged there’s more on the way. China Hits Back on Trump Tariffs as Europe Off Hook for Now:

On Friday, China unveiled tariffs on $3 billion of U.S. imports in response to steel and aluminum duties ordered by Trump earlier this month. The White House then declared a temporary exemption for the European Union and other nations on those levies, making the focus on China clear. Though Beijing’s actions so far are seen by analysts as measured, there may be more to come.

“Trump’s Trade War” has caused a decline in world markets:

Equity indexes from Tokyo to Frankfurt tumbled with European equities falling to the lowest in more than a year. U.S. stock futures dropped, signaling a further retreat for the S&P 500 Index after it fell 2.5 percent, on risks a further escalation in trade tensions will undermine an unusual phase of synchronized global economic growth.

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Trump throws a temper tantrum and starts a trade war – with our allies

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The headline in the Sunday Washington Post blares ‘Pure madness’: Dark days inside the White House as Trump shocks and rages:

Trump’s friends are increasingly concerned about his well-being, worried that the president’s obsession with cable commentary and perceived slights is taking a toll on the 71-year-old. “Pure madness,” lamented one exasperated ally.

NBC News reported last week that Trump was angry and ‘unglued’ when he started a trade war, officials say:

Trump’s policy maneuver, which may ultimately harm U.S. companies and American consumers, was announced without any internal review by government lawyers or his own staff, according to a review of an internal White House document.

According to two officials, Trump’s decision to launch a potential trade war was born out of anger at other simmering issues and the result of a broken internal process that has failed to deliver him consensus views that represent the best advice of his team.

On Wednesday evening, the president became “unglued,” in the words of one official familiar with the president’s state of mind.

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Trump, the two officials said, was angry and gunning for a fight, and he chose a trade war, spurred on by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro, the White House director for trade — and against longstanding advice from his economic chair Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

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No one at the State Department, the Treasury Department or the Defense Department had been told that a new policy was about to be announced or given an opportunity to weigh in in advance.

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