Tea-Publican Tyranny in Wisconsin: The Main Event is Tuesday

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Stuart Rothenberg Political Report takes a look at the Wisconsin recall election and concludes in GOP Hoping to Hang On in Wisconsin Recalls : Roll Call:

The bottom line on all this appears to favor the Democrats. Control of the Wisconsin Senate rests on just a few races, with Republicans needing to squeeze out victories by Olsen and Darling and to avoid other upsets. That’s possible but probably unlikely, given Democratic enthusiasm in the state.

“The average Republican voters in Wisconsin viewed the passage of the Walker proposals in March as the end of a tough battle, while Democrats viewed it as the beginning,” said Chris Jankowski of the Republican State Leadership Council, which seeks to elect Republicans to down-ballot statewide and state legislative offices.

This is why Front Groups Dived Into Wisconsin Recall Elections with $5.5 million in independent expenditures on advertisements already:

Wisconsin Common Cause, a non-partisan, non-profit citizen's lobby, projects that total spending by candidates and outside groups could reach over $25 million.

In 2010, the average Wisconsin state senate race cost only $209,076.

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The group responsible for the largest portion of this behind-the-scenes spending is Club for Growth(CFG), a right-wing political group founded by the Wall Street Journal's Steven Moore [a senior fellow at the Goldwater Institute] and fueled in part by hedge fund money.

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Citizens for a Strong America, a new shadowy entity with links to the staff of the Koch Brother's Americans for Prosperity has spent just under $700,000.

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 The American Federation for Children (AFC), a 501(c)(4) organization created to help legitimate privatizing public education. . . has so far spent over $500,000 during this election season.

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Wisconsin Family Action (WFA) has funneled nearly $500,000 into the recalls elections so far. This 501(c)(4) is tied to the Wisconsin Family Council, which fights against equality for gays and lesbians in the state.

In addition to buying ads in the local media, Americans for Prosperity (AFP), whose board is chaired by David Koch, has been accused of attempting to sway the election through voter suppression, by mailing absentee ballots to Democrats in at least two districts telling citizens to return their ballot – two days after the election date. Formal complaints have been filed with the Wisconsin Elections Board.

The Koch Brothers corporate-funded Tea Party front groups Tea Party Express and Tea Party Nation are also headed to Wisconsin this weekend. Tea Party Summers in Wisconsin : Roll Call Politics:

Tea Party Express and Tea Party Nation plan to hold nearly a dozen rallies this weekend as part of a bus tour to defend six Republican state Senators in special elections Tuesday. This tea party pair represents a wide swath of the national tea party movement, and together the groups control millions of dollars.

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But it’s uncertain whether the last-minute rallies will do anything to change that, especially since labor unions have been organizing in Wisconsin for months.

“No one in Wisconsin cares about a giant tea party bus,” said Kelly Steele, spokesman for the We Are Wisconsin PAC. “Outside tea party flashiness won’t make a damn bit of difference in the end.”

Despite reason for cautious optimism, Greg Sargent reports Why Democrats are very nervous about Wisconsin – The Plum Line:

Publicly, Democrats are projecting great confidence about the likelihood of taking back the Wisconsin state senate in the upcoming recall elections. They claim their private polling shows them ahead or tied in all six races targeting GOPers for recall, while the two Dems being targeted seem safe. Beltway observers like Stuart Rothenberg are confident Dems are on track to win.

In reality, Democrats know full well their bid to take back the state senate could still fail.

Here’s why. While it’s become a tedious cliche to point out that in the end elections all come down to turnout, in the case of the Wisconsin recall elections it really will prove decisive.

And what’s got Dems particularly nervous is that in these races, there’s no precedent for predicting what turnout is going to look like — because we’ve never before seen anything like this set of recall elections.

“We don’t have a precedent for this,” Mark Mellman, the well respected Dem pollster who is conducting recall polling for the Wisconsin Democratic Party, acknowledged to me. “The nature of the turnout is so uncertain that it really will make a huge difference. We’re dealing with big uncertainties.”

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Dems think they’re very likely to oust senator Dan Kapanke, and are somewhat confident that they will defeat Randy Hopper. Dems need to net three wins to take back the state senate, so they are eyeing either Luther Olsen or Alberta Darling as the potential third victory. Sheila Harsdorf is also possible.

One factor potentially working against Democrats is that Republicans tend to turn out more in traditionally low-turnout elections, as Mellman noted. The recalls are off year elections, so you’d think they’d be low turnout. But Scott Walker’s proposals have produced a backlash and level of grassroots energy that caught the most seasoned observers off guard.

Democratic and labor organizations are also pouring money into advertising in Wisconsin, and they have had a well organized field operation of grassroots volunteers up and running for many months now.

There are a number of progressive organizations e-mailing supporters to contribute money or to participate in national GOTV phone banking. Please do what you can. On Wisconsin! On to victory!

UPDATE: The Democratic Party of Wisconsin on Thursday filed complaints in multiple jurisdictions alleging that state Sen. Alberta Darling has committed multiple felonies as part of a collusion and obstruction conspiracy. Alberta Darling's Illegal Coverup:

The complaints also name the corporate front group Americans For Prosperity, Wisconsin Family Action, Wisconsin Right to Life and the lobbying arm of for-profit education corporations, the so-called American Federation for Children.

Darling's campaign and political operation is alleged to have benefited directly from groups that are part of a loose "coalition" that is funneling millions of dollars into Wisconsin in defense of her and Scott Walker's agenda.

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"It appears that Alberta Darling is engaged in a coverup to hide election collusion," Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chair Mike Tate said Thursday. "The last acts of her desperate campaign are not merely pathetic. They are illegal."

(See attached complaint. [.pdf])