Reaction to Biden’s and Kelly’s lead in the latest Arizona Polls

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The latest polls in Arizona are potentially good news for the people who want:

  • To take Arizona and America forward for everyone.
  • Good government that can keep the people safer and more prosperous.
  • To get rid of reactionary policies that are divisive and move the country backward.

Captain Mark Kelly has a double-digit lead over Senator Martha McSally in the last poll, reported by Laurie Roberts at AZ Central,  from OH Predictive Insights.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has opened up a seven-point lead over Donald Trump according to the same poll and has led in every statewide poll since January 1, 2020.

That sound you hear is Republicans soiling themselves because Arizona (especially Maricopa County) can be the decisive state that gives the Democrats the Oval Office and the Senate.

Both Jonathan Easley of the Hill and EJ Dionne of the Washington Post report that Trump and McSally are hemorrhaging support in the suburbs and among independents, especially among women and people without college degrees in Maricopa County which up until the last two election cycles was reliably Republican.

NOT ANYMORE.

Arizona Congressional House Representative Greg Stanton, commenting in the Dionne piece which relayed that Biden had a 13 point lead in Maricopa County, said:

“Suburban moms and dads and aunts and uncles are swinging against the President” because of “a belief among these moderate voters that he has mismanaged this crisis. When you put people’s own health and their children’s health at risk, it’s almost impossible to recover from that.”

Mike Noble, the managing partner at OHI, the firm that conducted the poll, said in the Easley article:

“The reality is, Republicans have a big issue with suburban voters and they’re not doing as well with the older demographic, which is typically conservative. That’s been behind the big shift and part of why they lost four statewide races in 2018.”

Arizona turning increasingly blue has been trending since 2016 when voters in Maricopa County rejected Sheriff Joe Arpaio and elected Paul Penzone to replace him. In that year, voters also elected the dynamic Adrian Fontes as Recorder.

The trend, probably accelerated by Mr. Trump and the policies of the reactionaries in State Government, saw the elections of Kathy Hoffman to the Superintendent of Public Instruction office, Katie Hobbs to the Secretary of State position, and Kyrsten Sinema to the United States Senate in 2018.

That year also saw Democratic gains in the State House.

Easley reported that Republicans worry that Kelly is “following the Sinema playbook.”

Former Democratic Senator Dennis DeConcini commented to the Hill piece that McSally, (who appears to be, like Trump, conducting a base only campaign,) is going to have a difficult time beating Kelly at this point and Biden may win Arizona based on the overwhelming support for the former astronaut.

Democrats have recruited an impressive array of candidates to run at the federal, state, county, and local levels this election cycle.

Momentum for further party gains at all levels seems a strong possibility.

Steven Slugocki, the chairperson of the Maricopa County Democratic Party and, along with Navajo President Jonathan Nez, a PLEO (Party Leader Elected Official)  delegate for the Biden campaign, responding to a request for comment by Blog for Arizona, wrote about the county’s national importance in this election year:

Maricopa County Democrats know it will all come down to the work we do in this county. As the largest battleground county in the country, we are ready to take on the challenges we face and win. Poll after poll shows our candidates winning, but, we know we cannot rely on polls or take our foot off the gas, we have to work harder than ever before and turn out every vote. We must re-elect Paul Penzone and Adrian Fontes and flip all the remaining county seats. Arizona deserves better than Russell Pearce and his good ol boys club. We have been preparing, planning and working with our districts and candidates, I can assure you the Maricopa County Democratic Party will rise to the occasion and deliver historic wins this November.”

Chairperson Slugocki is right.  Voters need to remember that election day is 166 days away and a lot of work needs to be done for Democrats to finish convincing people that their forward vision (which includes expanded quality and affordable health care, protecting people, sustainable infrastructure projects, expanding voter access, and increasing funds for education, sustainability, food security, broadband, and telehealth programs)  is preferable compared to the tried and failed one offered by the Republicans.

Please remember to:

Turn out and vote on August 4, 2020, and November 3, 2020.

Register/sign up for the Permanent Early Voting List (PEVL) in Arizona or any state that allows early or absentee balloting and mail. Arizona residents can sign up at servicearizona.com

Arizona residents, mail your General Election ballot by October 28, 2020, for the November 3, 2020 election.

Check-in with the Secretary of State’s office where you live to verify your mail-in ballot was received, processed, verified, and counted.

Know the voter ID requirements in your state.

If you can, support Clean Election Candidates with a small contribution.

Also, please remember to stay informed on all the candidates and vote for all the offices on the ballot.

Also, remember to research all the ballot initiatives, sign to get them on the ballot if you support the measure, and vote on them as well.

Remember Primary Election Day is on August 4, 2020, and General Election Day is on November 3. 2020.