"I have a great idea! Let’s not have any more elections. That way, we don’t have to worry about voting machines, counting the votes correctly. Instead, let’s set a closing date for raising money and the candidate with the most money is simply declared the winner. The money – the tons of money raised to campaign – would instead be contributed to worthy causes. That would prove that we have the best government money can buy and raise a lot of cash for good causes!"
The preliminary figures are in at the FEC, sorting the serious from the self-deluded, the players from the wanna-bees.
CD 1:
The most interesting and surely the most contested race this cycle in Arizona will be CD 1, Tricky Dick Renzi the Carpetbagger’s old seat. The early money indicates a contest between state legislator Ann Kirkpatrick (D) ($217K) and mining lobbyist Sydney Hay (R) ($107K). Kirkpatrick is out-raising Hay 2:1 and almost 1/2 of Hay’s money ($50K) is self-financing, so it’s actually more like 4:1. Such a disparity certainly indicates that the early enthusiasm is on the Democratic side. Republicans are either not excited by Hay and awaiting another candidate, or haven’t yet committed to retaining this seat.
Howard Shanker (D) ($66K) is lagging Kirkpatrick badly, but leading Hay in actual receipts, so it’s not actually too shabby. Mary Kim Titla (D) ($4K), though certainly a very attractive candidate (in more ways than one) seems not to have yet launched any serious effort at fund-raising. It is still early, and there are others yet to step into the race that could change the complexion of the race considerably, especially Konopnicki and Mayes for the Republicans, and CD 5 Representative Harry Mitchell’s brother Bob Mitchell for the Dems.
CD 3:
The surprise challenge of John Shadegg (R) ($525K) by Bob Lord (D) ($401K) may become a very exciting race, indeed. CD 3 is slightly more favorable demographically than CD 5, which Harry Mitchell won handily over J.D. Hayworth last cycle, so Bob Lord could certainly pull off an upset if the national environment for the GOP is poor enough and Democrats want the seat badly enough. Bob doesn’t have the familiarity to his district’s voters that Mitchell enjoyed, nor the notorious ethical challenges and bigotry of Hayworth to work with, but the race is certainly winnable. A wild card in the race is the Independent candidacy of Annie Loyd (I) ($12K), who in many ways is to the left of Bob Lord and has premised her run on grassroots organizing and voter contact. Don’t be fooled by Annie’s fund raising, she isn’t running on money. We’ll see how that works out for her.
While Bob Lord had his
biggest quarter so far, John Shadegg’s momentum has apparently slipped.
Shadegg’s recent filing was $120K less than his second
quarter filing, representing nearly a 40% drop. More telling, small
dollar donations represented only 5% of Shadegg’s total contributions,
while PACs represented almost 20%. Shadegg’s average contribution
was over $1,500, compared with Lord’s average contribution of $330. Shadegg also appears to be dependent on out-state-dollars with at
least 40% of his money coming from outside of Arizona.
Surprisingly, Shadegg took another $5,000 from the Services Group of America, Inc PAC. This PAC represents Thomas Stewart, a convicted campaign money launderer. In 1998, Stewart was convicted of 25 counts of illegally funneling corporate funds totaling $100,000 into a Congressional campaign in Washington state. As part of his sentence for illegally financing a Congressional campaign, Stewart was forced to pay a $5 million fine, wear an electronic monitoring device during his home confinement and perform 160 hours of community service. Much more of this and his ethics may become as serious a problem as Hayworth’s.
CD 5:
Harry Mitchell (D) ($829K) isn’t having any trouble raising money for his re-election. Good thing, too, as so many Republicans are gunning for him. The most serious money on the Republican side so far is Jim Ogsbury (R) who reportedly raised $350K, $250K of which is a loan of his personal funds. Still, that outstrips Laura Knaperek’s (R) ($30K) by 3:1. Knaperek has barely made a down payment on a serious bid at unseating Mitchell, while Osbury has bought (or mortgaged) the whole farm. Many of the possible challengers, such as Dave Schweikert (R) (who just resigned and announced his candidacy), Mark Anderson (R), and Jeff Hatch-Miller (R), aren’t quite in the race yet.
CD 6:
This district is a bit of a sleeper at the moment with Jeff Flake (R) ($526K) firmly entrenched. But Russell Pearce
(R), the powerful Chairman of the Arizona House Appropriations
Committee, is eying a primary challenge and could make serious inroads
into Flake’s base. It’s my view that Pearce would make the district
more vulnerable to a Democratic incursion, so I gotta say, "You go,
Russ!" I must confess to secretly rooting for Flake’s one-man crusade
against earmarks, however.
CD 8:
Representative Gabby Giffords (D) ($1,166K) is setting a blistering pace for her re-election bid. Her goal is said to be $3 million this cycle to defend her seat. Her only rival, who will almost certainly face no primary opponent, is Tim Bee (R) ($135K). Even with his hothouse campaign protected and abetted by powerful allies in the GOP establishment, Tim is going to have serious trouble meeting Gabby’s pace and catching her head start.
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One thing about CD 1:
on the dem side, you showed how much shanker raised but failed to show how much of that small amount he’s SPENT! he only has about $2K CoH! He raised 68K and spent 66K! On what??? so the closest competitor to Ann Kirkpatrick has $4K in the bank. They should just back out to ensure a dem victory. if shanker and titla were smart and wanted to make sure the dems took cd1, they would quit now, saving everyone’s time and money by getting rid of a primary.
Mike got me thinking of Contributors with this blog and it came to mind of one of my Law Firms Representing my Corporation is Duffield Young and Adamson PC.
I have known Duffield for over 40 years as his letter of endorsement is posted on my web-site.
For those of you who do not know who Duffield is he was past Arizona Democratic Party Chairman an ran for Governor.
Today I also noted that Jeff Latas also showed Duffied Young and Adamson as a Contributor;
HERE IS THE KICKER:
Duffield and Young and Adamson is NOW A TIM BEE CONTRIBUTOR!
So as the aurguement on this blog seems to be the number of registered Democrats verses the number of registered Independents verses the number of registered Republicans you all have got it WRONG for this Election Cycle;
Voters see NO DIFFERENCE in either party because of each of the party candidates are voting with there CLASS DISTINCTION not there Party Affilliation!
Such is Giffords growing up with rubber dollar bills stretching them in front of the T.V. Cameras showing the viewers El Campo is THE BUCK STRECTCHER when El Campo was ripping off customers not showing hidden charges for tire mounting or tire balancing as was included in the prices for Jack Furrier Tires but with a higher but REAL PRICE!
GIFFORDS IS GIVING YOU THE RUBBER DOLLAR TREATMENT FOLKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The only one who really matters in CD1 is Steve Owens and you totally left him out of your analysis.
I have decided years ago to run a Campaign For Congress on the WILL of THE PEOPLE not THE MONEY OF THE PEOPLE!
I could dump personal funds into my Campaign for Congress in cd8 that would Dworf Giffords and any amount she could ever dream of raising but I decided to rely on the Voters “Getting it” and backing candidates who speak the truth and will honestly work for there constituents instead of the Candidate being treated like its Christmas every election cycle being buried in Millions of Dollars of Money “FOR WHAT?” to advertise in The Arizona Daily Star or appear on K-Gun T.V. ADS making the media MILLIONS AND MILLIONS????????????
The voters need to be informed about what IS going on in Government and don’t expect the Government to inform the voter what it is doing; BECAUSE IT WILL BE A COLD DAY IN HELL BEFORE THAT HAPPENS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Los Angels Times reports today that poor Chinese Neighborhoods are reporting over a MILLION DOOLARS in 2000 dollar contributions to the Hillary for President Campaign of which when asking these poor chinese dishwashers of there 2000 dollar contribution they knew NOTHING OF IT!
The Hillary for President Campaign also is registering illegal aliens in Phoenix and showing upon registration contributions of $2300.00 dollars being made to her campaign as was shown in Phoenix by Mexican Nationals being registered that are here illegally also giving the maximum $2300.00 to her Campaign!
If you people want your Representatives to be like a weekly BOX OFFICE MOVIE being reported as the BIGGIST BOX OFFICE MONEY MAKER ;’ is “THE BEST MOVIE” when it may sell tickets but never win an Oscar keep on voting for the MONEY WHORES and not Candidates who represent the actual will of the voters!
Richard,
I don’t disagree with you on Flake at all. What I was trying to say is that this guy is a “Republicans Republican”…the kind that the party used to really love. I haven’t heard much about Pearce challenging him anymore, so it may not be “on”, but I find it significant, very significant, that they would attack one of their own with the stature of Flake. I am not at all saying that Democrats should necessary love his politics at all or that he is without reproach, but Flake is what the GOP used to be all about…and now it seems they are pushing his brand out.
Last, you are very right about the fact that there is not candidate to face whomever wins. It may be that the registration advantage is just too much…or that people think Flake will squash him like a bug. BUT, what I was getting at was “opportunity cost” and “energy”. It is funds and energy wasted on that kinde of fight. It brings a lot of needless attention and draws lines in the sand. It would be one more mess for the GOP.
Re Jeff Flake and CD6:
It is difficult to see anything that “would make the district more vulnerable to a Democratic incursion” when no credible Democratic candidate has expressed any interest in running, let alone raising the money that you rightly say is the crucial component in running for office. And time is running out.
And while many of us may be “rooting for Flake’s one-man crusade against earmarks,” it’s important to remember that all of the projects Flake has made the subject of his weekly pun-filled press releases, if you took the money saved in every one of them and put them together, they would not fund the disastrous, tragic war in Iraq for even part of one day.
No one who has voted for President Bush’s tax cuts can call himself a fiscal watchdog.
And finally, many of those projects would actually help ordinary people, like a swimming pool that could be used for recreation by members of a rural community. The George and Barbara Bush Cultural Center, while giving Flake the opportunity to make a gratuitous punning insult at the expense of a former President, had as the goal of its host institution, the University of New England, of becoming “the epicenter of art, culture and ideas on the Biddeford campus…a place to celebrate the human spirit and cultivate the diversity of ideas that are the hallmark of a liberal arts education.”
It’s always been easy to make political hay out of government support for art and culture, hasn’t it? And many otherwise thoughtful liberals see Flake’s attacks on institutions like this and nod their heads in agreement.
It’s so easy to distract people from the big issues: the war, health care, energy independence and fiscal sanity.
First off, wonderful post. I have been following the reports pretty closely as you might guess…and I agree with your analysis 100%.
Here is a something to think about…why is it that the GOPs money machine seems to be faltering? This is a national issue too. Dems are outraising the GOP everywhere.
I think this is really really significant and that it spells doom for the GOP in 2008. Lack of contributions shows a lack of enthusiasm. In addition, I feel that the GOP strategy of minding their base has finally started to piss off the folks that donate to their campaigns…business interests….the Chamber etc. I really think they are taking a hard look at Democrat candidates for once, I think some are leaving the GOP, and I think others are just plain fed up and don’t want to donate.
Some more analysis. What does this mean in Arizona…and nationally?
First, the GOP has lots of open seats that used to be theirs. Retirees and scandals. Second, they must protect incumbents who are starting to falter. Third, they are left trying to get back seats that they lost last time. With the lack of money that they are raising total…it also means that little money is spread among many many races.
In Arizona, Michael, your post gets at it. First, GOP SHOULD be targeting the open seat in Dist. 1 first, but yet Kirkpatrick is outraising their candidate. Shaddegg, who should be safe under any circumstances, has a challenge and has to work hard this time…and raise money. They need to protect that seat. Last, they seem to be hell bent and embarassed about District 5 and 8 and want them back. A stupid stupid move. The amount of money it will take and effort peels off effort from District 1 and Shaddeggs now vulnerable seat.
Finally, if the crazies get their way, they will also have a primary fight over Flake’s seat with the hot immigration issue at its forefront. That WILL NOT make the business/money interests of the GOP the least bit happy. They like Flake…they should like Flake.
I would bet big money that the Arizona picture is the same nationally. In the Senate, most of the open seats are where Repubs have fled AND most of the seats up for election are Repub seats. They have to protect them…which means more money…etc etc. etc.
In other words, these early numbers are enormously significant.
Thoughts anyone?