Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
It is long past time that we amend the United States Constitution to end the antiquated system of the Electoral College and to elect our presidents by direct popular vote. Have we learned nothing since the 2000 election?
Mother Jones has the latest scheming by the GOP to steal the 2012 election. The GOP's Genius Plan to Beat Obama in 2012:
Republican state legislators in Pennsylvania are pushing a scheme that, if GOPers in other states follow their lead, could cause President Barack Obama to lose the 2012 election—not because of the vote count, but because of new rules. That's not all: There's no legal way for Democrats to stop them.
The problem for Obama, and the opportunity for Republicans, is the electoral college. Every political junkie knows that the presidential election isn't a truly national contest; it's a state-by-state fight, and each state is worth a number of electoral votes equal to the size of the state's congressional delegation. (The District of Columbia also gets three votes.) There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs; win 270, and you're the president.
Here's the rub, though: Each state gets to determine how its electoral votes are allocated. Currently, 48 states and DC use a winner-take-all system in which the candidate who wins the popular vote in the state gets all of its electoral votes. Under the Republican plan—which has been endorsed by top GOPers in both houses of the state Legislature, as well as the governor, Tom Corbett—Pennsylvania would change from this system to one where each congressional district gets its own electoral vote. (Two electoral votes—one for each of the state's two senators—would go to the statewide winner.)
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Under the Republican plan, if the GOP presidential nominee carries the GOP-leaning districts but Obama carries the state, the GOP nominee would get 12 electoral votes out of Pennsylvania, but Obama would only get eight—six for winning the blue districts, and two (representing the state's two senators) for winning the state. Since Obama would lose 12 electoral votes relative to the winner-take-all baseline, this would have an effect equivalent to flipping a medium-size winner-take-all state—say, Washington, which has 12 electoral votes—from blue to red.* And Republicans wouldn't even have to do any extra campaigning or spend any extra advertising dollars to do it.
Nebraska and Maine already have the system the Pennsylvania GOP is pushing. But the two states' small electoral vote values mean it's actually mathematically impossible for a candidate to win the popular vote there but lose the electoral vote, says Akhil Reed Amar, a constitutional law professor at Yale University.
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If Obama has another landslide win, the GOP rule-tinkering might not change the outcome. But given the state of the economy and Obama's low approval ratings, the election is likely to be close. If the president wins the states John Kerry won in 2004 plus Ohio—otherwise enough to give him a narrow win—changing the electoral vote rules in Pennsylvania alone would swing the election to the Republican nominee.
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Nor is there anything obviously illegal or unconstitutional about the GOP plan. "The Constitution is pretty silent on how the electors are chosen in each state," says Karl Manheim, a law professor at Loyola University in Los Angeles. The GOP plan "would certainly increase the political advantage of politically gerrymandering your districts," he adds.
Says Fiddler, the DLCC spokeswoman: "This would effectively extend the effect of gerrymandering beyond Congress and to the Electoral College. State legislatures could gerrymander the Electoral College."
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For now, the Democrats'—and Obama's—only real way of fighting back is political. "The political solution, if there is one, is going to have to come from getting people outraged about this," Amar says. "This is not American fair play; it's a partisan steamroller changing the fundamental rules of the small-d democratic game for purely party advantage. Trying to structure the world so that even the person who wins the state loses the state's electoral vote: That is new under the sun." He adds, "This is big."
More at the Daily Intel (h/t map) The GOP Could Guarantee Obama’s Defeat Just by Fiddling With the Electoral College [Updated]:
As something of an aside, the congressional-district apportionment system, even if it was enacted nationwide, is inherently biased toward Republicans. To see why, let's look at the last two presidential elections. (WARNING: MATH)
According to our calculations, in 2008, President Obama won 52.7 percent of the national vote, but with his 365 electoral votes, he won 67.8 percent of the electoral college. But if every state in the country had used the congressional-district apportionment system in 2008, Obama would have won 301 electoral votes (242 districts, plus 56 for winning 28 states, plus 3 for D.C.), which is 55.4 percent of the electoral college. So in 2008, the congressional-district apportionment system would have more accurately reflected the popular vote, and it would have helped John McCain.
In 2004, President Bush won 50.7 percent of the popular vote, and his 286 electoral votes represented 53.15 percent of the electoral college. Had every state in the country used the congressional-district apportionment system in 2004, Bush would have won 317 electoral votes (255 districts, plus 62 for winning 31 states), or 58.9 percent of the electoral college. So in 2004, the congressional-district apportionment system would have less accurately reflected the popular vote, and it would have helped … George W. Bush.
Either way, splitting up electoral votes by congressional district helps the Republican. That's because Democratic districts are more Democratic than Republican districts are Republican.
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The only way for the electoral college to accurately reflect the national popular vote is if the electoral college is directly tied to the popular vote.
But that's all kind of a hypothetical argument right now. The congressional-apportionment system isn't being implemented in every state. It's happening, maybe, in Pennsylvania, and three other states if the GOP feels like embracing a golden opportunity to rig the election in its favor.
I do not consider the The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact a serious solution. Amend the Constitution. Until then, work to make sure 2012 not a close election.
UPDATE: It appears not all Pennsylvania Republicans are on board with this scheme. Political Animal – PA electoral scheme runs into GOP opposition.
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