The IRC is ‘Packing and Cracking’ to Extend Republican Domination

The Independent Redistricting Commission is now in its final decision stage. The last of the 68 statewide meetings was held in Tucson on December 4. Tucson had more than 338 attendees with 132 speakers, where a Massive crowd protested a “safe” Republican district in Pima County.

This is a more extended version of an Op-Ed published on AZCentral.com on December 5.

The voters established the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) in 2000 to take redistricting out of the backrooms of the Legislature and place it in the hands of an independent commission with the direction to create “fair and competitive maps.” The idea was to get away from gerrymandering where the party holding the majority in the Legislature could push its opponents’ voters into a few districts (“packing”) or divide (“crack”) those voters into so many districts that they had no chance to make electoral gains.

Unfortunately, the IRC’s proposed maps pack and crack. Northern Arizona is a case in point.

Redrawing the lines of Congressional and Legislative districts happens every ten years based on new census numbers. The IRC is tasked with creating districts of roughly equal population, geographically compact, respecting communities of interest, geographic features and boundary lines, striving for competitiveness, and complying with the Voting Rights Act. The Arizona Constitution requires the IRC to honor each of these criteria.

The IRC has finished accepting public comment on maps of proposed voting districts that will be in force for the next decade (draft maps). Hearings have taken place throughout the state.

Maps fail to create competitive districts

One of the first tasks of the IRC this year was to define “competitiveness” for this round of redistricting. After receiving expert testimony, the IRC chose two metrics:

• The average vote spread between Democratic and Republican candidates in 9 recent statewide elections in the proposed district and
• Whether a single party would have won all 9 of those elections in the proposed district.

The draft maps fail to create competitive districts in 24 of Arizona’s 30 Legislative districts by the IRC’s own definition of competitiveness. Fully 80% of the state’s residents would be in non-competitive “safe” districts – discouraging participation by Democrats, Republicans, and registered Independents alike.

Why vote if one party is sure to win? Why vote in the General Election if the primary determines the winner? Furthermore, of these “safe” districts, 13 are Republican and 11 Democratic, making Republican control of the Legislature highly likely for ten more years.

The IRC has done a little better with Congressional districts, but fewer than half (only 4 of 9) are competitive districts. Of the five non-competitive districts, 3 are safely Republican and two are safely Democratic. It doesn’t have to be this way.

In Northern Arizona, the relatively sparse population and partisan distribution mean some of the four Legislative districts north of Phoenix must be non-competitive. Nonetheless, the IRC could create one competitive Legislative district and one competitive Congressional district in the north. The competitive Legislative district would look a lot like the present LD6 established by the 2011 commission, which combines the eastern third of Yavapai County (Sedona and the Verde Valley) in a district with southern Coconino County parts of Gila and Navajo counties.

Creating safe Republican districts 

But, instead of using Mingus Mountain as a natural point to divide Yavapai County as in the current maps, the Legislative Draft Map keeps Yavapai County whole in a safe Republican Legislative district. It creates a new safe Republican district to the east. Democrats are packed into a single district, including Flagstaff and several Native American tribal lands.

Predominately Democratic Sedona is split (“cracked”) between two safe Republican districts. This shifts the political landscape in northern Arizona from two Republican Legislative districts, one Democratic district, and one competitive district to three safe Republican districts and one safe Democratic district. As a result, the mandate for competitiveness is lost completely.

Furthermore, while Northern Arizona currently sends a Native American Senator and two Native Representatives to the Legislature, placing Flagstaff with the tribal district as the Legislative Draft Map reduces the chances of that happening in the future because there will be Flagstaff Democrats with legislative ambitions.

This is potentially a Voting Rights Act violation.

Likewise, in the Congressional Draft Map, Yavapai County is made whole, ensuring a safe Republican Congressional district and diluting the voting power of 13 Native American tribes. Previously, the east side of Yavapai County was with the highly competitive Congressional district 1, where Democrats have eked out victories, most recently with Congressman Tom O’Halleran. Western Yavapai was combined with the Colorado River counties making a safe Congressional district for Republicans like white nationalist Paul Gosar.

In the IRC’s proposal for the next round, O’Halleran’s seat is absorbed into a newly drawn non-competitive Republican Congressional district while the Colorado River district expands into Maricopa County to preserve a safe Republican seat.

Keeping Yavapai County whole is key to this scheme. Of course, the county has a cost: The draft maps take away one of its congressional representatives and three of its legislators, reducing its voice in Congress and the Legislature. But Yavapai County’s sacrifice solidifies Republican majorities in the state legislature for the next ten years and unseats a popular, moderate Democratic Congressman. Not surprisingly, at an IRC public hearing in Prescott Valley, Ken Bennett — last seen as a spokesperson for the Fraudit — appeared to support this gerrymander.

Click to see a state map showing more Republican Congressional districts than Democratic districts.

Disinformation campaign

In Prescott Valley and at other hearings in Northern Arizona, Republicans rounded up testimony to make the draft maps based on a disinformation campaign. They asserted that splitting Yavapai County into two districts as it has been for the last ten years is suddenly wrong — because the county provides countywide services like libraries, a community college, a sheriff, and building codes, and everyone pays property taxes in Prescott. Many speakers seemed to think the IRC was redrawing their county boundary instead of Congressional and Legislative districts. Some criticized Coconino County Supervisors for invading Yavapai’s “sovereignty” because Coconino County submitted an alternative map proposal.

What baloney!

Whether or not there are competitive districts in Northern Arizona, Prescott and the Quad Cities of Yavapai County will be in Republican-dominated districts. So why then do four Republican Yavapai County Supervisors support draft maps that reduce their county’s power in Congress and the Legislature by half? The only explanation can be that they have greater loyalty to the new radical Republican Party than they do to Yavapai County, whose interests they have taken an oath to serve. (The 5^th Supervisor, a Democrat, issued a statement saying she urges the commission to create competitive maps.)

Let’s hope the Independent Chair of our Redistricting Commission follows the direction of the voters and the constitutional requirement to create fair and competitive maps. Redrawing the lines in Northern Arizona is a step in that direction.