The ‘Rising American Electorate’ – a tale of two polls

Democrats are trying to solve their midterm election drop-off problem by increasing the voter participation of The Rising American Electorate. In the last midterm election:

In 2010, more than 71 million unmarried women, people of color and people under thirty—the groups that make up the Rising American Electorate and the majority of voting eligible members in America’s democracy—did not vote. Nearly two thirds of them, 46 million, were not registered to vote; 25 million were registered but did not vote. In 2008, the last presidential election year, more than 46 million Rising American Electorate members failed to vote. Of those non-voters, 37 million were not registered compared to 9 million who were.

Clearly, too many people are still standing on the sidelines of our democracy.

Democrats are investing $60 million this year to overcome their midterm election drop-off problem.

Greg Sargent of the Washington Post reported on Tuesday GOP in doghouse among women, nonwhites, young:

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll that finds a record high number of Americans disapprove of their own Member of Congress — reflecting, once again, just how poorly this Congress is viewed.

But the relative ratings of the Republican and Democratic parties are also noteworthy, particularly among key voter groups that GOP leaders have been hoping to improve their appeal among ever since the 2012 loss produced a round of soul searching about the party’s future. The toplines are that among registered voters, 38 percent view the GOP favorably, versus 60 percent who view it unfavorably; among Dems those numbers are 51-46.

Here’s a rundown among subgroups:

– Among women, the favorable/unfavorable numbers for the GOP are 33-62. For the Democratic Party they are flipped around, at 54-40.

– Among nonwhites, those numbers for the GOP are 25-70. For the Democratic Party they are flipped around at 68-26.

– Among Latinos, those numbers for the GOP are 29-65. For the Democratic Party they are flipped around at 61-33.

– Among adults aged 18-29, those numbers for the GOP are 31-61. For the Democratic Party they are flipped around at 51-35.

– Among moderates, those numbers for the GOP are 32-66. For the Democratic Party they are flipped around at 52-45.

The “Rising American Electorate” strongly disapproves of the GOP and strongly approves of the Democratic Party. So we should be looking at a Democratic “wave” election, right? Wrong!

Greg Sargent reports today on another poll and the Democratic midterm drop-off problem. Big problem for Dems — their voters have the blahs:

A new CBS News poll finds that Democrats are leading in the generic ballot matchup by four points, 41-37. The polling average finds the generic matchup virtually tied. Taken together as indicators of the overall political environment, these suggest there are still no signs of that GOP wave we keep hearing about.

However, these numbers aren’t necessarily good for Democrats, because they don’t take into account that midterm voter drop-off problem Dems face. Indeed, as Aaron Blake notices, the poll also finds that among those who say they are “more enthusiastic” about voting, Republicans lead by seven points, 47-40.

It turns out this is being driven by the fact that big numbers of core Dem groups are not enthusiastic about voting. I asked CBS’s polling team for a breakdown:

– Among unmarried women, only 29 percent are more enthusiastic about voting, while 57 percent are less enthusiastic. By contrast, married women (who are more likely to vote Republican) are more enthusiastic by 45-42.

– Among nonwhites, only 31 percent are more enthusiastic about voting, while 56 percent are less enthusiastic.

– Among voters aged 18-29, only 35 percent are more enthusiastic about voting, while 45 percent are less enthusiastic.

It’s still too early to read too much into these numbers. But findings like these bear watching to see if we will again see those core Democratic groups drop off in a midterm year. Those groups are key pillars of the emerging Democratic coalition that appears increasingly formidable in national elections, but their tendency not to show up in midterms is also central to continued Republican dominance in Congressional races despite the GOP’s national demographic challenges.

The enthusiasm numbers among unmarried women are particularly noteworthy. Single women have become one of the most reliable Democratic voting groups, and turnout among them is pivotal to the outcome of multiple Senate races, and by extension, control of the Senate. They also tend to drop off steeply in midterms, because of various lifestyle factors, a leading reason midterm electorates tend to be more GOP-friendly. That’s why Dems are making pay equity, the minimum wage (as a women’s economic issue), universal pre-K, college affordability, and women’s health and reproductive issues so central to their campaigns this year.

Meanwhile, the numbers among nonwhites are also potentially important, because black Southern voters could represent more than half of all Democratic voters in multiple Senate races, making them pivotal to Senate control, too. And young voters could prove significant in races like the ones in North Carolina and Michigan.

Dems are well aware of these difficulties, which is why they are spending $60 million on turnout efforts designed to make the 2014 electorate look as much like a presidential year electorate as they possibly can. They have their work cut out for them.

Look, this is simple folks. When Democrats turn out to vote we win. The only way Republicans win is when Democrats find lame-ass excuses not to vote, and concede the election to the wild-eyed crazies of the radical right — and then spend the next two years bitching and moaning about the lousy government that they elected because they did not vote. That’s right, it’s your fault.

It’s time to kwitcherbitchin and to stand up and be counted by voting. No more lame-ass excuses! If you have not already voted in the primary, do it today!