The Santorum Surge… Ewww.

Posted by Michael Bryan

Some folks are concerned about the sudden appeal of Rick Santorum (and his sweater vests) in the GOP primaries and what that might say about the direction of his Party.

The latest Gallup tracking polls indicate that Santorum is in third place tie with Gingrich in NH, sitting at just under 10% (after Romney and Huntsman). He is also in a strong 3rd in South Carolina at almost 20%. Is there a path to nomination for the Catholic Taliban from Pennsylvania?

In short, no way.

Santorum is having a few good weeks as a result of his 'surprising' statistical tie with Romney in the Iowa Caucus, but it won't translate into any sustainable momentum or further wins.

What really happened in Iowa? Santorum 'won' in Iowa in the same fashion that a cockroach will 'win' a nuclear war.

All the fire was focused on Gingrich, and he withered and died under it as evangelicals were reintroduced to a man who only claimed to share their values.

With evangelical-based candidates Perry and Bachman already having discredited themselves during their 15 minutes of front-runner fame, the relatively obscure Santorum was the only man left standing for disspirited evangelical voters to support. Given that some 2/3rds of Iowa caucus attendees self-identify with the evangelical right, it's only surprising that Santorum didn't win out-right against the Mormon Mitt Romney.

Iowa was Santorum's high-water mark. He will remain a viable protest vote of evangelical voters confronted with the choice between a 'non-Christian' Romney, the 'values-challenged' Gingrich, and the 'libertard' Paul, but he hasn't the money or organization to continue his campaign past South Carolina without another win.

What might the future hold for Santorum?

Gov. Gary Johnson (yes, he actually was running for the GOP nomination), having found it impossible to find any traction in his own party's nomination race, recently defected the GOP primary to seek the nomination of the Libertarian Party.

The Donald (yes, he actually thought he could get nominated) continues to make occassional noises about an independent campaign, having been soundly rejected by GOP primary voters (er… actually, poll answerers, would be more accurate) (once they stopped being amused by the idea of his candidacy).

And one certainly wonders if Gov. Buddy Roemer (yes, he actually was running for the GOP nomination) might take an independent course, having been essentially shut out of the GOP race because of his anti-special interest money campaign.

Given the deep dissatisfactions of significant factions within the GOP with the primary field, and the apparent inevitibility of a Romney nomination, it seems possible that Santorum might actually decide to launch an independent campaign under the banner of a third party, such as the Christian identity-centered Constitution Party.

From a Democratic perspective, such a splintering of the GOP coalition would be a perfect assist to the reelection of Obama.

Santorum's campaign might be a useful bellweather for how the GOP coalition fares. If he eventually resigns himself to the nomination of Romney (or the very unlikely Gingrich) and endorses his Party's candidate, the coalition might make it through 2012 intact. If he jumps ship for an indendent or third-party bid, it could be the beginning of the end of the red-headed step-child role of evangelical voters in the GOP coalition.

That might be the best thing that Santorum could ever do for America. Besides lending his name to a previously unnamed substance, of course.