Democrats in Arizona can flip the state legislature blue, elect the Governor and capture all eight statewide offices – if they follow a new strategy that just worked in California.
Republicans have used the strategy for years. But it will work equally well for Democrats and engage independents: capitalize on fear and anger.
By that, I mean:
- Fear: Portray Republicans as local MAGA candidates who are dangerous Trump stooges who will restrict vaccinations, restrict mask mandates, restrict voting, and eliminate abortion. The key is connecting candidates to Trump, who is extremely unpopular with voters. “Trump is a cancer for the country,” said Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzales – a Republican.
- Anger: Capitalize on the voters’ strong motivation to vote against a candidate instead of their milder inclination to vote for a candidate. For example, the majority of people are angry at anti-vaxxers, most of whom are Trump Republicans, and will vote against an anti-vaxxer candidate.
There are two corollaries:
- GOP taunts. Don’t respond to Republican slogans that Democrats represent “socialism,” “woke education,” “stolen 2020 election,” and border “crisis.” These slogans have failed to motivate voters and are ignored by independents.
- Democratic achievements. Don’t spend too much time on Democratic accomplishments. It is a given that Democratic values align perfectly with Arizonans’ 7 shared public values.
Lessons from California recall
During the California recall election, President Biden summed up the strategy: “You either keep Gavin Newsom as your governor, or you’ll get Donald Trump.” Governor Newsom also referred to the Republican front-runner — the anti-mask, anti-vaccine right-wing radio host Larry Elder – as a dangerous proxy for Trump.
Elder was indeed a Trump clone, calling for an end to unemployment benefits, belittling women’s rights, claiming that children don’t get Covid, denying climate change, and claiming that the 2020 election was stolen. He even claimed “election fraud” in the recall election before any votes were counted.
Senator Elizabeth Warren said at a recall rally, “Make no mistake. Larry Elder dreams of being California’s own Donald Trump.”
The strategy worked perfectly. Newsom clobbered Elder with 63% of the vote, while Elder got only 26%. To be sure, 46% of registered voters in California are Democrats. Still, Elder campaigned only to conservative Republicans, who make up only 24% of registered voters, and ignored independents, who make up 23%.
Perfect Strategy for Arizona
Nominees too closely linked to Trump will undermine Republican prospects in Arizona.
“Democrats running in other parts of the country next year would do well to study Newsom’s playbook very carefully,” said Dan Schnur, a politics professor who has advised Republican candidates.
“What we’ve learned from the recall is that Republicans aren’t ready for a post-Trump era. They are doubling down on Trump,” said Schnur added. “That has potential to be a really big problem.”
“Democrats found a way to keep Donald Trump alive and run against him,” said Tony Quinn, a Republican political analyst. “That’s the big story. They warned about ‘Trump taking over.’ And it worked brilliantly. Democrats found a formula here that’s really going to work on the national level.”
“Particularly for blue states and some purple states, Newsom’s strategy has offered a model for Democratic candidates,” said James Lance Taylor, a politics professor in San Francisco.
There are eight state executive offices up for election in Arizona in 2022:
- Governor
- Attorney General
- Secretary of State
- Treasurer
- Superintendent of Public Instruction
- Corporation Commission (2 seats)
- Mine Inspector.
AZGOP is a Trump cult
Republicans will struggle in statewide races in Arizona as far-right candidates prevail in primaries, thanks to Trump’s blessing. Then, in the general election, they will repel independents and conservative Republicans.
The Arizona GOP has turned into a Trump fringe cult under Chair Kelli Ward. She and Senate Leader Karen Fann have become obsessed with the Republican election audit of Maricopa County. The “Fraudit” has been widely denounced as a sham, a grift, and “insane.” Even Michelle Ugenti-Rita, a GOP candidate for Secretary of State, called it “botched.”
The audit is a turnoff to centrist Republicans and independents. “It’s a misunderstanding of what the Arizona electorate is like, and it’s almost malpractice to assume that what works in hard-core Republican primaries will also work in a statewide general election,” said Kirk Adams, the ex-chief of staff for Gov. Doug Ducey.
An OH Predictive Insights poll found that 39% of Arizona GOP voters, 85% of Democrats, and 76% of independents believe there is no evidence of widespread fraud in last year’s election. “That shows risks for Republicans in making the 2020 election results part of their midterm message in a year that should otherwise be favorable to Republicans,” said Mike Noble, chief of research.
Krazy Kari would be a Trump Governor
Ex-Fox newscaster Kari Lake is the front-runner among 19 Republicans who have filed a Statement of Interest to run for Governor. She’s the prime example of an extreme candidate who frightens independents and centrist voters.
Of the five leading Republicans running for Governor, not even one will acknowledge that Joe Biden won Arizona last year. “Republicans appear dead set on losing the governor’s race next year if they can’t even acknowledge the reality that Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020,” said the Arizona Republic.
“We’re going to find out President Trump was the real winner of Arizona,” Lake said.
Lake is not sure about her public values. She left the Republican Party in 2006, registered as a Democrat in 2008, and returned to the GOP in 2012. Thus, she has never been elected to public office.
She also supports the Maricopa audit. Lake is a strident opponent of masks and vaccine mandates and attacks mainstream media as “fake news.” She is a regular on right-wing outlets, like Steve Bannon’s podcast and Newsmax.
Lake said the teachers’ Red for Ed movement was actually a front for legalizing marijuana. Her source: a photo of a green T-shirt with the hashtag #GreenForEd.
Who is most MAGA for Attorney General
There is no clear front runner among the three Republicans in the Attorney General race, but firearms instructor Tiffany Shedd of Eloy is the Trumpiest. Trump said in 2020, “She never lets people down, and she’s got the right values. She’s got the values of Arizona.”
Shedd said, “We need a conservative Attorney General who will hold the line and protect the people of Arizona against Washington’s dangerous socialist policies.” She vilifies “Democrats in Congress [who] pass laws that trample on our Constitutional rights, while their woke allies in Big Tech use their monopolies to try to bully and cancel us.”
She has no public service record either. Earlier, Shedd ran for Congress In 2020 in the 1st Congressional District but lost to Democratic incumbent Tom O’Halleran. But she did raise nearly $1.7 million for her campaign.
Superintendent of Public Education
The five GOP candidates for Superintendent are undistinguished, except for Shiry Sapir, a Scottsdale real estate agent with no public service record. Her Trumpiness is confirmed by her anxiety about Critical Race Theory, saying, “Follow me to end woke education in AZ!”
She defends right-wing agitators who have disrupted Scottsdale school board meetings. She wrote, “Do we really live in a world where school boards consult with police departments to keep “angry parents” away? These “angry” parents are you and I. Yes, that’s US! 🚩ARE YOU ALARMED YET?!?
Facebook has deleted her post that included false information about Covid. Sapir is against masks in schools, and she opposes equality for gay and trans students.
Sapir supports school choice and vouchers, which benefit private schools. She is anti-union, saying, “Unions constantly challenge parental rights and now AZ law! The time to push back is NOW!
Sapir is a Kari Lake groupie, calling her “an icon.”
Capitol rioter Mark Finchem
In the race for Secretary of State, the state’s top election official, Republican Mark Finchem stands out. Trump has endorsed him. Finchem of Oro Valley claims the 2020 election was rigged and organized a meeting where Trump allies spewed false conspiracy theories about the election. He supports the Maricopa audit.
Finchem was at the Jan. 6 riot at the US Capitol, where a video shows him walking in front of the east steps of the building. He’s a member of the Oath Keepers, an anti-government militia that organized the insurrection.
He’s a frequent guest of Steve Bannon and touts QAnon theories, claiming that election officials run a pedophile network and the distribution of children.
“If he wins the primary, we’re done,” one conservative Arizona GOP strategist said, warning that Democrats and the media would make Finchem the “gross uncle” of the GOP.
Once in office, Finchem will likely ban mail-in voting, seek to give the legislature power to overturn the will of the voters, and reverse the 2020 election results.
Are you frightened yet?
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Larry, you really should read the article by Howie Klein that Wileybud linked.
The Democrats have some major problems right now with DINOs in the Senate and House. Hopefully, Democratic representatives such as yourself are not in denial. I don’t see how you could be, with their willingness to derail Biden’s agenda becoming so clear.
At some point the AZ Democrats are going to have to face up to the catastrophic mistake that goes by the name of Kyrsten Sinema and assure voters that she will be PRIMARIED and the AZ Democrats will do nothing to help her win her primary (assuming she runs again).
I don’t know how others feel, but I wouldn’t vote for her to catch dogs. I can’t be shamed into voting for her again (assuming I’m still here).
You need to know this. The righteous contempt that many feel for her is becoming visceral. I know that you and other Democratic cheerleaders can’t speak to this, but you surely need to be thinking about it and what needs to happen, and most importantly, how to keep people like her out of Congress.
I agree the Democrats have some good candidates for 2022. Everyone loves Katie Hobbs. So, yes, promote those candidates but don’t forget about the ones that need to be flushed out.
What Liza said x 100,000,000
After five years of the “good people on both sides” horror show and 500,000 people dead because Don the Con thought masks made him look week we get to January 20th and some light at the end of the tunnel.
It was such a huge relief, I don’t have words to describe it.
But nope, Sinema wants fame and money or she’s just mentally unwell and Mitch is given power he has not earned nor deserves.
#primarysinema
We agree with you about Sinema. Take a look at the Blue Meanie’s story calling on her to resign at https://blogforarizona.net/kyrsten-sinema-is-obstructing-the-democratic-agenda-resign/
Not sure how to reply to the original post. But I am delighted to see your article about dealing with winning. Because that is what we absolutely MUST HAVE. I am sick of belonging to a party that is so weak and spineless. I have read, and re-read, Dr. George Lakoff’s books on framing, and how we must get out our message; what words we should use, how we should never use their frames and then try to argue facts and reason; we must clearly state what are values are, and not respond to their ‘what abouts’ that they always throw. Until the party leadership understands this, we are doomed to be a toothless, frustrated, and ultimately, defeated minority of sounds blowing in the wind. We need some brass knuckle fighting. And Sinema? What would the REPUBLICANS do to one of their own???? We must do the same thing. We need to get rid of her, and pronto. We must make LOUD NOISE about dissatisfaction with her, from the Dem leadership on down. I am terribly worried about the Republicans smash and grab efforts with the manipulation of the entire voting process, not to mention purging voters, making it hard to vote, and then maybe just outright overturning the will of the people. We are headed for a dictatorship in this country if we don’t get on the ball, pull off the boxing gloves, and give them a bunch right where it hurts. And YES. Fear, and ANGER, and there is plenty of that. We are afraid; afraid for our economic futures, afraid for our children’s futures and their health; afraid of bankruptcy if we get ill; afraid we don’t find a decent job; afraid our children won’t be able to get the education they need, and afraid they will have to (with a bit of humor!) live with us the rest of their lives! <okay, maybe not>
reformedrepubblog, I agree. A recent Gallup Poll https://bit.ly/3iR32FY found that the vast majority of Arizona voters have 7 shared public values:
1. Education
2.Health and Wellbeing
3. Jobs and Economic Opportunity
4. Environment and Sustainable Future
5. Civic Engagement and Leadership
6. Fair, Just and Equitable Systems
7. Immigration Reform
These 7 values align with the positions of every Democrat I know. I think things look VERY BRIGHT for the Dems in 2022.
There is no “total breakdown of control at the border” now anymore than ever before.
Phony John Kavanagh acts like the border issues just started and not like there was an actor from a reality TV game show and his nude model wife running things for the previous four years.
On the other hand, they’re mostly Haitians, and it was Bill Clinton who screwed over Haiti years ago with some weird rice deal that decimated their ag-economy, so lots of blame to throw around.
But on the other other hand, it was the actor guy with the nude model wife who let Stephen “Santa Monica Goebbles” Miller destroy most of the infrastructure for dealing with immigrants.
Gonna’ take awhile to build that back up.
BTW, I have no problem with nude models, just weird to have nekkid pics of Melania on the interwebs where children doing book reports on first lady’s can find them. I can’t find any of Mary Todd and they had camera’s in her time.
But on the other other other hand, Biden is sending most of them back to Haiti on planes, something that Phony John is probably pretty happy about, because he is a sad little bigot, who I hear has no Republican friends to he spends all his time posting on liberal blogs instead of looking up what words mean in the dictionary.
I was tempted to comment again. However, I do not wish to interrupt your eating your own.
Hey! That’s pretty good Johnny. Is your comment original or did you make it up?
We’re not a cult John, we don’t fall in line, we think for ourselves.
For a dude who claims not to be sheeple you sure are a flocker.
Liza, you’re most welcome!
Yeah, Sharpie, I guess that Charlotte is kind of amusing. In all honesty, I didn’t see all of that. After 4+ years of reading inane comments about Trump, I can no longer decipher the content.
Wileybud, Howie Klein is going to be my new “go to” guy for speaking about Sinema and Manchin and other corrupt DINOs. Thanks for that.
Rep John K, I agree with one thing you said in your comment. I’m not going to tell you what it is because it scares me when I agree with you.
Oh, I forgot. Let’s not forget that Biden was supposed to restore the dignity of America diplomatically in Europe. So why is France withdrawing it’s ambassador?
John Kavanagh, France is mad because Australia is buying American submarines, which are better, instead of France’s submarines.
Which means American jobs, dumba$$.
I really, really wish you would just try to think things through.
Unless you want France to get the contract?
Krusty the Sinema or Sinema the Clown. Either one is quite apt. Former Reprise Records president, Howie Klein has some words about her:
“They’re all so profoundly wretched– and so dedicated to maintaining a corrupt status quo– that it barely matters if one is slightly better or worse than the other. The Democratic Party would– in every way– be better off without the 5 of them. But since the only one I know personally is Sinema– and because she’s the only one of the 5 who is certifiably insane and incapable of thinking beyond herself, let me continue making a case I started making a decade ago– that Kyrsten Sinema is the worst Democratic elected official in America.”
https://www.downwithtyranny.com/post/who-is-america-s-worst-democrat-manchin-gottheimer-schrader-cuellar-sinema
Based upon the botched exit from Afghanistan, the public relations motivated drone bombing of a non-terrorist and his kids, the total breakdown of control at our border and Biden’s domestic policy bills floundering, I would suggest that you also try to convince voters that Biden is actually a Republican.
Oh, Kavanagh, you are such a sad figure – you have no Republican friends so you spend all your time commenting on a liberal blog.
Also, the Democratic statewide candidates are SO much better than the Republican ones. At today’s Democrats of Greater Tucson meeting, we had Rep. Reginald Bolding, who is a real dynamo. https://youtu.be/6OotaKdkMB8 He’ll certainly be elected AZ Secretary of State. Who do you have Kavanagh? Mark Finchem — hahahahaha — a QAnon loon.
Democrat Katie Hobbs will certainly be elected Governor. And who do you have? Krazy Kari Lake — hahahahaha — someone who’s never been elected to anything. As for Superintendent, Kathy Hoffman will be easily re-elected. And who do you have? A bunch of nobodies and frontrunner Shiry Sapir, a mommy blogger who has never been elected to anything — hahahahaha.
I could go on but I can’t stop laughing.
Come on, Liza, “I’m a 100% Trump supporter because he’s honest”.
Starts out with a zinger!
…our election was “highjackered”!
…””your” “jet” as big”!
“democraps” ROTFLMAO
A few more grammar and spelling errors, but then she ends it with “Period”, but forgets to put in a period after Period!
Genius! All that was missing was the caps lock!
I get that these folks are a little sketchy, but this one’s so over the top that I think Charlotte Cunningham is actually Krusty Sinema pranking us. 🙂
Charlotte, you didn’t make me laugh but thanks for trying.
Charlotte, I must say that’s some excellent snark! On the other hand if you’re serious, what remaining brain cells you have that have not succumbed to Right Wing Media Brain Rot may want to hold an elaborate funeral for the desiccated corpses of the rest.
Charlotte Cunningham is workshopping a tight five for open mic night.
I think Larry is a moron. I’m a 100% Trump supporter because he’s honest. Look how the country is today. We are finished and everyone knows it thanks to the horrible job Biden and his buddies are doing. I’m not in a cult with Trump. The cult are the democraps that are destroying our country from within. If you think for one minute that Biden is doing a great job then you need serious help.
Look, we all know Trump won and our election was highjackered. Biden sold his soul to China and the devil over 40 some years ago. He puts Americans last. We, the Americans are sick of it and in 2022, over my dead body will another democrap win. We will take back our country come hell or high water and if the dirty democrats should happen to win then you can just start kissing your once beautiful country goodbye.
From a Trump supporter to you! You might want to pay attention people. Our country is being destroyed from within. If you can’t see this then your jet as big of an idiot as this Larry guy is! Period
It’s cute to hear from the trump minority. Biden got 81,268,924 votes — 7 million more than trump. Trump is a loser, and a boat anchor for the GOP. The stronger that Republicans cling to this loser, the better for the Democrats.
To charlotte: It is really sad to read your post. What is sad is that I am sure you actually believe the stuff you post. Sad, because you have left the world of reality to live in a totally created, virtual headscape designed to keep you fearful, hateful, and unable to critically evaluate what is sense and nonsense. I say to you, you had better get outside right now and shovel off all the ice and snow on your driveway, before some (probably progressive) slips and falls and sues you. And, don’t forget to protest the abuse of elf labor instead of using American workers during the Xmas season. That is an issue you should be able to jump on.
Larry,
Voting rights legislation is EVERYTHING. How does your winning strategy address voter suppression? Perhaps you can get more people to agree with you, I don’t know. I’m not one to be moved by tactics that are based on fear, anger, etc…But getting everyone’s vote counted is what matters.
What about this?
https://fairfight.com/why-we-fight
There’s some flawed idea floating around out there that we’ll just outvote the opposition at such an extreme level they can’t win despite their voter restriction laws, etc…
Your time would be better spent putting pressure on Kyrsten Sinema to eliminate the filibuster and get those voting rights bills passed before it’s too late.
“Another winning strategy would be for national establishment Democrats to stay out of primaries…”
Yeah, Wileybud, I was going to mention that but I was tired of writing. We’ve had too many candidates rammed down our throats with disastrous results. Hillary Clinton is at the top of the list and now Kyrsten Sinema is a close second who will move into first place if she derails the Biden agenda and the reconciliation bill fails to pass or is severely cut.
Another winning strategy would be for national establishment Democrats to stay out of primaries and then give unencumbered support for the winners of those primaries. It’s the Democratic Party and voters at the local levels who best know the candidates.
Best example of why interfering in primaries is bad strategy is Kyrsten Sinema being hand picked by Chuck Schumer (who cleared the primary for her) and look at the unnecessary burdens she’s caused since. Arizona Democratic voters, especially those in her old Congressional District, knew how terrible she was, yet really had no choice but to vote for her in the general.
“Fear: Portray Republicans as local MAGA candidates who are dangerous Trump stooges…”
“Anger: Capitalize on the voters’ strong motivation to vote against a candidate… ”
And, “Don’t respond to Republican slogans….”, “Don’t spend too much time on Democratic accomplishments…”
This is a winning strategy for Democrats in Arizona? Seriously?
Based on a special election in the bright blue state of California?
All that happened in CA is that the electorate needed to wake up and realize that their complacency about a special election could have an undesirable outcome. So, yeah, scaring the snot out of them worked very well. But I just don’t see the correlation between that and the elections in Arizona.
I’ll agree on one point. When the AZ Democrats run candidates like Kyrsten Sinema then perhaps it is best the best strategy to demonize the challenger and leave it at that.
However, in most cases, when there are good candidates the best strategy is still to register new voters, fight voter suppression, give the voters positive reasons to vote for Democratic candidates, and focus on voter turnout.
When you play someone else’s game, a game they have perfected, you almost always lose.
Liza, I agree it’s worth it for Dems to list accomplishments to contrast with GOP candidates. Most Arizonans agree with Democrats about public values — see https://bit.ly/39gWsDI
• Fund public education
• Access to affordable healthcare
• Jobs that pay well, and job training.
• Sustainable practices that protect air, water and land
• Civic engagement that solves problems
• Fair, just and equitable systems
• Immigration reforms that include a pathway to citizenship.
You won’t find any of these public values on Republican platforms.
I agree Larry’s story is superbly reported and written.
Excellent article, Larry.