The CD 8 Gender Gap

Why is it that there is not a single female GOP candidate in CD 8, yet fully half of the Democrats, three out of six – Patty Weiss, Gabby Giffords, and Francine Shacter – are women? Why is the GOP incapable of fielding even one female candidate for one of the most competitive races in the nation?

This isn’t just an issue in CD 8, either. The gender gap between the parties extends nationally. Of all the candidates running for Congress this year, only 163 are women. That in itself is a fairly poor showing, but 113 of those women are Democrats, and only 50 are Republicans. 65 of those women running are incumbents, and 66 are challengers. 32 women are running for open seats like CD 8, meaning that almost 10% of women running for those most contested seats are right here in CD 8.

Not only are Democrats running more than twice the number of women, but at least in CD 8 they are the leading candidates for their party’s nomination. Patty Weiss and Gabby Giffords are for reasons of polling, good will, and fundraising considered the leading contenders in Democratic primary, and very competitive in the general. Francine Shacter may not be a polling powerhouse, but her sharp wit and common sense are recognized and respected even by her opponents, and she is consistently a crowd favorite.

It may be an underestimated factor in the election that a woman is likely to be the Democratic candidate. Women’s voting patterns may change substantially in an election cycle which has seen an increased politicization of women’s reproductive rights and marriage, shocking callousness by this Administration toward military families, and the complete neglect by the ruling party of issues critical to women such as paid family leave, work flexibility, child care, pay inequality, and child healthcare. And polling trends indicate that so called "Security Moms", women with children highly concerned with terrorism, are increasingly disconnecting from the Republican party, which is part of a general trend of the electorate that no longer gives any automatic advantage to Republicans on security issues.

Under these conditions a woman may find significant policy points on which to leverage her gender and appeal strongly to women voters across the ideological spectrum. The Republican candidates, with the possible exceptions of mostly pro-choice Hellon and Huffman, are likely to strongly alienate women voters with their stances on reproductive rights and the government’s role in family life, and their complete lack of empathy or concern for women’s issues.

It’s possible that, at least here in CD 8, with Janet Napolitano leading the Arizona Democratic party, and three capable women to choose from on the ballot, we may see another "year of the woman" in politics. Given that women still constitute a paltry 15% of Congress, it’s well past time.