Thoughts on the Republican Field

Now that I have watched the first GOP debate, I think it is a good time to discuss the contenders. Of course, I have no interest in a GOP President being elected, and given what I saw in the debate, and what I know of the candidates, a GOP President in 2008 would be an unmitigated disaster. There are candidates which are better than others, however, and in furtherance of the national interest and the prospect for productive partisan dialog, it behooves Democrats to encourage the GOP to return to sanity by backing a reality-based candidate.

Senator McCain is perhaps the saddest of the whole crew. There were bright spots in his record and character that we all mourn for the loss of; the man was once someone we could admire, even if we didn’t always agree with him. I can’t recall such a self-inflicted melt-down of a public figure since maybe Muskie. McCain has lent his prestige, and pinned his Presidential hopes, on the hopeless prospect of Bush’s ‘surge’ having a measurable effect on the situation in Iraq. By adopting Bush’s ‘surge’ as his own ‘new strategy’ in Iraq, McCain has tied a lead weight to his own campaign. Most other candidates have taken a much more politically viable stance of wait-and-see and gradual withdrawal, while simultaneously sniping at the Democratic position as cut-and-run or timetables. Essentially most of the GOP has opted for the ‘Peace with Honor’ dog and pony show, while McCain is fully invested in wringing some sort of victory from staying the course.

McCain has also moved fully into pandering to the religious right as a major strategy. No longer the Goldwater-like straight talk about religious extremists, McCain now takes every chance to offer himself as champion of almost any pet issue of the Christian authoritarians. I say almost, because even as he struggles to fit in, telling flashes of honesty continue to bedevil his attempt to be the Right’s David: in this debate, his true colors peeked out when he admitted to believing in evolution. That is simply not acceptable and such gaffes will stymie his support from fundamentalists, even as his attempts to suck up to the fundies alienate real Republicans and conservatives in his party.

So, in addition to the fundies, the moderates, who have suffered much marginalization in their own party, are dropping away from McCain, as demonstrated in his deflating polls – where are they going to go? They might gravitate toward other front-runners; the charismatic and financially viable but disturbingly heterodox (read Mormon) Romney, or the decidedly secular but valiantly hypocritical Giuliani. But with disaffection with the leadership of the GOP at fever pitch, they just might go to the darkest horse of all, and most genuinely traditional conservative Republican in the field: Ron Paul.

Paul was a breath of fresh air in the debate. With a plurality of Republicans now convinced that Iraq was a mistake, a genuine skeptic and critic like Paul might start to gain some grassroots traction. While I certainly don’t agree with much that Dr. Paul says, his positions are mostly the sort of level-headed small government conservativism that Democrats can compromise with and negotiate from to create decent policy, instead of the seditious nonsense of the Dominionists or the childish magical realism of the Neo-Cons, which all the other candidates seem to embrace. Paul also has the possibility to appealing to the all-important Libertarian vote: we know how influential they are 🙂

UPDATE 5/5: A humorous update on Paul, apparently ABC webnews removed Ron Paul from their unscientific debate victory poll, and caught holy hell for it from readers. He was put back in, and is winning in a landslide.

Romney has potential to be a very useful, if risky, bet for Democrats. He’s a walking disaster, of course. A decent resume, and a more expensive haircut and suit than Edwards, with nearly as much charisma, he is the GOP’s suicide bomber candidate: he waltzes into the General Election and detonates into a full-scale melt-down. He carries so many contradictions and that bomb vest of Mormonism, not to mention his absolute lack of any real bottom on national security. Of course, my private nightmare is that Romney grabs the nomination and the Democratic candidate implodes. Then we have another Bush-league idiot in the White House, but with far more charisma and articulation. His political instincts would probably prevent him from accomplishing much and soon bring his own party down on his head for a feeding frenzy, but he could go along with some really air-headed right-wing shit in the meantime. So Romney is a risk. We can beat him like a red-headed step-child, but the safeties are off.

Giuliani is probably a stronger general-election candidate than Romney. The Democratic party will have to dive fully into the Swift Boat sewer to defeat him, but there are plenty of turds in that pool. He would go down to a good negative campaign by exposing his authoritarianism, blowing up the myth of his 9/11 competence and heroism, entangling him with his scummy associations and financial dealings, and driving the far Right away from the polls with his personal foibles.

The problem is if the Democrats are unable to get down in the muck without much of it sticking to our candidate, Rudy could be the next President. His belligerence, intolerance, pig-headedness, and utter ruthlessness would make for a very divisive and embattled Presidency, one that almost certainly would land us in further wars. While Romney is inclined to bi-partisanship and adopting the most politically convenient position (which would make him mostly ineffectual), Rudy is unfortunately very politically competent and quite cunning. He would be an effective chief executive, a disaster for America, and a total pain in the ass.

Giuliani as President would be the worst possible outcome in 2008 because he may, by the simple expedient on having no soul and no convictions, be able to hold together the Republican coalition that is currently dissolving, and enable the GOP to continue on it’s current self and nationally destructive course. Thus Giuliani as the nominee is, like Romney, a double-edged sword, but one that would require skill and daring to disarm. Lord knows that the Democratic party doesn’t have great excesses of those just laying about…

Representative Tom Tancredo seems likely to run a one issue campaign and stick into the convention to get a strong immigration plank, but to have little effect on the race otherwise. Representative Duncan Hunter seems like a combination of Tancredo’s immigration obsession, with better national security cred, but the ego of a Gingrich: he’ll be out in the first round (Representatives don’t become President too frequently). Governor Tommy Thompson is just a cold fish. He looks good on paper, between the governorship and his key geographic base, but I look at him and I just see a VP. Governor Mike Huckabee is interesting. Between the anti-Clinton thing and his surprisingly strong appeal to evangelicals (he even believes in creationism), he’s just mainstream enough that the Right might decide he’s a better bet than their made guy, the absolutely unelectable Senator Sam Brownback, and less repellent to them than the Mormon, the Mamon, or McCain. Hackabee could conceivably make a mark as the religious right’s standard bearer.

I wouldn’t bet much on any of them breaking out of the field or taking down one of the Triumvirate. The only guy with serious breakout potential is Governor Jim Gilmore. He’s a former Governor of Virginia, has strong conservative cred (especially on taxes, terror, and abortion), has enough enthusiasm around him to draw a draft movement, and he seems quite solid and sensible – a real Daddy figure. If Republicans get fed up with the Triumvirate – and given their quality, who could blame them? – they might rush into the arms of a very safe-seeming choice. That choice, I predict could be Gilmore. Watch that man like a hawk, people. If there is justice and right in the universe, the Triumvirate are going to implode, and the GOP might just turn then to a white knight who offends no one, and even excites those who want to see a real adult back in the White House: that man could be Jim Gilmore.