Trump’s approval rating has cratered to a net approval of -21.4—a historic low. Trump is in the darkest chapters of modern presidencies—like Watergate-era Richard Nixon and post-Katrina George W. Bush.
But this collapse is different: There’s no single scandal to blame. Instead, it is a slow, grinding drumbeat of revulsion, according to a new analysis from Strength In Numbers, a site covering U.S. politics, elections, and public opinion, written by G. Elliott Morris.
Six blows that sent Trump into the dumper
Using a statistical model to identify key turning points in Trump’s approval ratings, Morris pinpoints six major events that drove sharp declines. Each one added weight. None provided relief.
- 36 Vicious Executive Orders in Trump’s First Month in Office. Trump’s second term began with a rapid drop in approval as voters reacted negatively to a flood of damaging executive orders. Instead of momentum, he triggered backlash.
- Appalling Tariffs and Murderous Deportation. The “Liberation Day” tariffs—combined with horrific deportation cases—sparked another sharp decline. Economic pressure caused political outrage.
- National Guard Invasion of Los Angeles. Sending 5,000 total National Guard and Marines into a major U.S. city may have energized Trump’s base, but it sparked broader dread about executive overreach. And the polling reflected it.
- The 2025 Government Shutdown. The shutdown lasted 43 days (Oct. 1 – Nov. 12, 2025), surpassing Trump’s 2018–2019 shutdown. More than 670,000 federal employees were furloughed, and roughly 730,000 continued to work without pay. Services such as food aid (WIC/SNAP) experienced disruptions. Trump’s approval took another hit.
- Epstein Files Fallout. There are 38,000 references to Trump, exposing him as a pedophile child molester. The release of Epstein-related documents from December 2025 to March 2026 dragged Trump back into scandal headlines, cutting off any chance of a rebound.
- Pointless Iran Conflict and Rising Gas Prices. The Vietnam-style war created a humanitarian crisis, with more than 1,500 civilians, including children in schools, killed by strikes and with more than 3.2 million people displaced. The war has spread to 10 Middle Eastern Countries and jacked up gas prices in Arizona to $4.68 to $4.70. When prices spike, presidents pay.
Trump’s steady decline.
From tariffs to shutdowns to war-driven price spikes, the biggest declines in Trump’s approval came when Americans felt financial strain.
- Trump’s rating on handling the cost of living has plunged to -37.6
- 53% of Americans say he is responsible for rising prices.
- Peter Hamby reports, “The very fact that Trump decided to deliver a rare address on April Fool’s Day was an admission of his diminished political stature. He is not playing offense anymore. Americans, including core elements of Trump’s 2024 coalition, no longer believe the president will follow through on his promises.”
- It’s hard to overstate how dramatically the political landscape has shifted, according to the Associated Press. At this time last year, many Republican leaders believed there was a path to preserve their narrow House majority and easily hold the Senate. Now they privately concede that the House is all but lost and Democrats have a realistic shot at taking the Senate.
What’s most alarming for Trump—and Republicans—is what hasn’t happened: There has been no recovery. No rally effect from international conflict. No bounce from legislative victories. No sustained improvement at all.
Where most presidents see ups and downs, Trump’s trend line is brutally consistent: downward. Heading into the 2026 midterms, this data paints a grim picture for Republicans nationwide.
Voters appear increasingly ready to punish the party in power when economic conditions worsen—a dynamic that helped Trump win in 2024, but is now working against him.
Trump’s political decline isn’t about one bad moment. It’s about a ruinous presidency that keeps delivering instability, higher costs, and controversy—over and over again.
This isn’t a temporary slump. It’s a presidency defined by collapse.
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