Credit: Al Habtoor Research Centre
The state of the US economy is hard to get a grip on these days , even with the statistics often pondered over by economists and journalists. The stock market is way up (although it’s mostly powered by a few large corporations), and unemployment is holding steady (although that may be because the labor force has shrunk due to retirements and the deportation of thousands of willing workers). Retail sales are increasing, but not by a lot. Even so, that should be a recipe for fairly contented consumers.
But it’s not. There are two widely accepted measures of American consumer confidence. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to an all-time low in March. The Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board, a business think tank, showed a confidence level barely better than during the COVID Pandemic years.
While pundits and academics try to corral the disparate economic statistics, some of them see the problem. As pollster and poll analyst G. Elliot Morris headlined his blog article on the issue recently, “It’s the Prices, Stupid.” He added “Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because prices are at an all-time high. The UMich index isn’t broken; popular government data just offers an incomplete picture of what people care about.”
Inflation was stubbornly refusing to drop before President Trump started the Iran War (which our congressman, Juan Ciscomani, supports wholeheartedly). Now it has started to rise (and is predicted by just about every economist to keep going up, maybe for a long time). As a result, Morris writes, “the percent of Americans who say high prices are hurting their personal finances is at an all-time high.”
Paul Krugman, the Nobel Prize winning economist and author, agrees with that argument, but sees more: “it has a lot to do with the fabulist promises Trump made during the 2024 campaign, when he asserted that grocery prices would come down ‘on Day One’ and that he would cut energy prices in half…this explains why Americans are so intensely angry and pessimistic above the economy now.”
And, man, are they mad. A poll by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) for the Associated Press, released on the 21st, shows that 70 percent of adult Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. Why should they think otherwise? For example:
- The closing of the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of Trump’s war with Iran drove gasoline prices at the pump up spectacularly in March, and they pretty much have stayed there. The regular gas price in Pima County has increased 50 percent since before the war. Diesel is up 68 percent. Prices have begun to inch down, but the saying among economists is that such prices go up like a rocket, but only drift down slowly like feathers. It will be a long time before that now-longed-for $2.95 price is seen again around here. The prices may even rise again if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
- Natural gas, which, as is the case with crude oil, is produced in the Middle East, and is also pent up in the Persian Gulf by the Strait’s closure, is a key component of fertilizer. While the resulting fertilizer shortage is likely to be felt more severely in other parts of the world, the American Farm Bureau surveyed farmers here: 70 percent reported they could not afford all the fertilizer they need. A lack of fertilizer means fewer crops, which means higher food prices.
- And then, there’s the coming effect of the oil blockade on worldwide plastic production. Plastic, as you likely have heard, is used in almost every type of production.
Trump, who ordered up this war, seems to have no idea how to stop it. There’s a cease-fire in effect right now, but if this were a poker game, Iran, as a Saturday Night Live comedian said a few weeks ago, has a great hand—it holds a Strait.
The President is incredibly unpopular with the American people. This does not bode well for Juan Ciscomani, whose two wins for Congress have been by razor-thin margins. Hot on the heels of the AP/NORC poll came one from the Cook Political Report, a highly reputable political newsletter. Cook found that in 36 congressional districts seen as being “toss ups” (Ciscomani’s Sixth District is one) or where Republicans or Democrats are only slightly favored, Democrats held a six-point advantage. Cook characterized that as a “flashing red light” for Republicans.
Ciscomani, as he nearly always does, jumped right into formation behind Trump when he sent bombers to Iran. But the congressman has had nothing to add about the ensuing strategic and economic disaster. What does he really think? He’s not saying, but as the Tucson Agenda surmised when Juan was recently publicly criticized about something else, he is probably wishing “he hadn’t hitched his wagon to a megalomaniac.”
Sources:
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-04-14-economy-sentiment-its-the-prices-stupid
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bad-vibes-and-broken-promises
https://apnews.com/article/trump-approval-iran-economy-cost-of-living-poll
https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=AZ
https://www.fb.org/news-release/nationwide-survey-most-farmers-cant-afford-fertilizer
https://www.tucsonagenda.com/p/one-beautiful-city-budget
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