The MAGA/QAnon Republicans have put forward the worst selection of Senate candidates since the Tea Party in 2010. This “island of misfit toys” gives Democrats an opportunity to not only hold the Senate, but to expand their majority (which would render Sens. “Manchinema” Mr. & Mrs. Irrlevant on their way out the door in 2024).
Kerry Eleveld wrote at Daily Kos, GOP’s ‘island of misfit toys’ candidates a gift to Senate Democrats looking to expand majority:
After months of assuming Democrats would suffer epic losses at the polls this November, journalists are now catching on to the idea that candidates actually matter. That is particularly true in a handful of critical Senate races, where Republicans have nominated what one Democratic strategist described as an “island of misfit toys.”
The New York Times has a roundup of recent missteps by GOP Senate candidates, who have been readily gifting Democrats ammunition for the fall.
Arizona Republican Blake Masters, leading the GOP Senate primary, blamed “Black people, frankly,” for most of America’s gun violence.
UPDATE: Neo-Nazi publisher Andrew Anglin gives ‘forceful endorsement’ of Blake Masters’ Senate bid. (Masters says he rejects the endorsement.) As if, he is a Peter Thiel puppet of the New Right.
Georgia Republican and former football star Herschel Walker, who revels in railing against absentee fathers, recently admitted to fathering three children he had never publicly acknowledged before.
UPDATE: Herschel Walker Lied About His Secret Kids to His Own Campaign:
The communications reveal a campaign and a candidate in chaos.
Emails and texts show advisers discussing how they don’t trust Walker—both to tell the truth to them and to handle campaign events properly—and harboring concerns that he isn’t mentally fit for the job.
He spouts falsehoods “like he’s breathing,” this adviser said—so much so that his own campaign stopped believing him long ago.
“He’s lied so much that we don’t know what’s true,” the person said, adding that aides have “zero” trust in the candidate. Three people interviewed for this article independently called him a “pathological liar.”
Pennsylvania Republican and TV huckster Mehmet Oz, a carpetbagger from New Jersey, recently misspelled the name of his new home away from home on an official campaign form.
UPDATE: This carpetbagger Dr. Oz was Trolled for Shooting Pennsylvania Senate Campaign Ad in His Mansion … in New Jersey.
Nevada Republican Adam Laxalt, the state’s former attorney general, derided the landmark Roe v. Wade decision as “always a joke” while attending a pancake breakfast in June. A survey last year found that 65% of Nevadans identify as pro-choice, including 66% of independents. Laxalt even lamented during his remarks, “We’re not a pro-life state. We all have to be honest about that. It’s sad, it doesn’t make me happy.
Reminder: Adam Laxalt, an ally of former President Donald Trump filed lawsuits to overturn 2020 election results in Nevada.”He became Donald Trump’s main lackey in Nevada by orchestrating bogus lawsuits to prop up the Big Lie and overturn the 2020 election,” said Andy Orellana, a spokesperson for the Nevada Democratic Victory group.
Wisconsin GOP Sen. Ron Johnson‘s attempt to deliver two slates of fake electors on Jan. 6 to Vice President Mike Pence was recently revealed during House a select committee hearing. Oops. Johnson’s alibi has been a work in progress ever since.
So Johnson aided and abetted a seditious conspiracy for a coup d’etat. He has a date with the DOJ.
Johnson also has a serious Putin problem. How Sen. Ron Johnson’s Investigation Became an Enabler of Russian Disinformation: Part I; Manafort’s Reward: Sen. Ron Johnson and the Ukraine Conspiracy Investigation: Part II; Is Senator Johnson Acting as Putin’s Useful Idiot?
Note: I would also add Ohio as a potential pickup for Democrats where Rep. Tim Ryan is taking on Peter Thiel puppet on the New Right J.D. Vance, one of the phoniest, least authentic candidates I have ever witnessed. Innovation Ohio’s poll in June POLL: Tim Ryan maintains lead over GOP extremist J.D. Vance, 44-41 with 15% undecided. A poll commissioned by Democrat Tim Ryan’s U.S. Senate campaign shows a statistical dead heat for the seat with Republican J.D. Vance. Ryan, Vance in dead heat for Senate seat, poll shows.
At this point in time, with the election still four months away, Senate Democrat incumbents stand a legitimate chance of holding the line in November. That includes the three most endangered incumbents, Sens. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Raphael Warnock of Georgia, and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.
At the same time, Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman, current lieutenant governor, appears decently positioned to capture the state’s open Senate seat (a flip for Democrats), while GOP Sen. Johnson could be vulnerable to attacks waged by his eventual Democratic challenger (primary on Aug. 9).
The Democratic-aligned political group Future Majority PAC recently released polling showing improving prospects for Democrats following the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe.
As Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg noted regarding Democratic incumbents:
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- AZ – Mark Kelly leads Republicans Blake Masters, 48-39, and Jim Lamon 47-41. He trailed a generic Republican 43-45 in March.
- GA – Raphael Warnock leads Herschel Walker 48-44. He trailed 48-49 in March.
- NH – Maggie Hassan leads Republican Don Bolduc 49-40. They didn’t poll NH in March.
- NV – Catherine Cortez Masto leads Adam Laxalt 46-43. She trailed Laxalt 43-45 in March.
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As Rosenberg also writes, GOP incumbents are looking weak.
Fetterman has meaningful leads in several recent polls, and now has to be considered a favorite in that race. Ron Johnson trailed 3 of his 4 opponents in a new Marquette University poll, a poll that suggests that Johnson – even before Roe and his admitted involvement in Trump’s effort to overturn the election – is in serious trouble. …
Bottom line – Dems are in our book now favorites to keep the Senate, and have a shot at picking up 1-2 seats.
Far from Senate Republicans being on a glide path to victory in November, they are instead more likely to lose seats than gain them. Mainstream media is starting to catch up.
The Washington Post adds today, Candidate challenges, primary scars have GOP worried about Senate chances (excerpt):
[B]ehind the scenes, Republicans operatives are more and more nervous. One GOP strategist watching the Senate races intently, who like others interviewed for this report requested anonymity to talk about inside deliberations, mentioned that “there are large issues on the candidate front.” The Republican likened the state of affairs to 2010 and 2012, when the Senate majority due to undisciplined and polarizing candidates corresponding to Sharron Angle in Nevada, Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana.
It’s not simply political novices who’re struggling. In Wisconsin, GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is roughly even with three of his 4 potential Democratic rivals in a Marquette College ballot final month, taken earlier than new disclosures that his workplace had tried to play a job in pushing an alternate slate of electors for the 2020 election. Johnson was considered favorably by 37% of the state’s registered voters in that ballot and unfavorably by 46%.
Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania, is polling barely behind his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, following a brutal Republican primary that flooded the state’s airwaves with assault advertisements towards the retired surgeon and tv character.
Democrats have also been pointing to recent reporting on J.D. Vance, the GOP senate nominee in Ohio, comparing abortion and slavery in an interview last year with a Catholic podcast. In Arizona, where the primary is next month, they have gone after Blake Masters, a candidate backed by former president Donald Trump for the Republican Senate nomination who has promoted the false claim that the former president won the 2020 election and has espoused hard-line immigration views.
For now, there is limited independent polling, but at least for the moment, Democrats in these key statewide contests appear to be outpacing the historical norms.
Democrats are also ahead in gubernatorial polling averages for Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Democratic candidates have also posted strong fundraising numbers in recent days, with Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democrat running against Vance, raising $9.1 million in the second quarter of the year and Stacey Abrams, who is making her second run for governor in Georgia, announcing massive fundraising totals between two campaign accounts.
These misfits have no business being candidates for office, let alone actually being elected to office. They are unqualified and unfit to serve in office. They should be banished to a deserted island, never to be heard from again.
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Politico reports, “Senate Dems, from Bennet to Warnock, post ‘blockbuster’ money ahead of midterms”, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/14/against-dire-headwinds-senate-dems-from-bennet-to-warnock-post-blockbuster-money-00045840
Candidates are posting “blockbuster fundraising numbers,” as Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson David Bergstein put it — though, in some cases, they are spending cash just as fast as they take it in. Nonetheless, Democrats see it as a sign of momentum after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade last month and an uptick in their chances of keeping the Senate.
“It says enthusiasm, I think it says that people understand it’s the United States Senate that confirms judges, particularly in light of what’s happened,” said Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), the No. 4 party leader.
In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock raised $17.2 million in the second quarter, spending big on TV ads but ending with $22 million on hand and blunting Republican Herschel Walker’s $6.2 million raised and $7 million cash on hand. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) announced $13.6 million in second-quarter fundraising and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) raised more than $5 million as their opponents compete in late GOP primaries. Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) raised $7.5 million in the second quarter, her campaign announced Thursday morning.
JB Poersch, president of Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC, chalked up those numbers to “a better message, better campaign operations, and better candidates who are laser-focused on the needs of their states.”
Democratic Senate candidates are putting up big numbers in states they are not favored to win at the moment. In Ohio, Rep. Tim Ryan raised $9.1 million over the past three months, Florida Rep. Val Demings raised $12.2 million and in North Carolina Cheri Beasley raised $7.4 million. In 2020, Democratic candidates also put up huge fundraising numbers in places like South Carolina, Maine and Alaska only to lose badly in the general election.
Axios reports a “Senate GOP fundraising flop”, https://www.axios.com/2022/07/16/senate-gop-fundraising-flop
Top Senate Republican candidates turned in poor fundraising numbers in key races from Arizona to New Hampshire.
In Arizona, the leading Republican candidate, Blake Masters, raised just $827,000 in the quarter ($1.58 million cash on hand) to $13.6 million ($24.9 million cash on hand) for Sen. Mark Kelly, the Democratic incumbent.
Another GOP candidate, Jim Lamon, brought in $1.2 million ($1 million of his own money).
In Pennsylvania, another underwhelming fundraising tally from a big-time GOP Senate candidate: Dr. Oz raised $1.6 million in the latest fundraising report, and put in $2.2 million of his own money — ending June with $1.1 million cash on hand. Democrat John Fetterman, despite his absence from the trail following a stroke, raised $10 million ($5.5 million on hand).
In New Hampshire, Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) raised $5.07 million, to just $538,000 for her leading GOP challenger, state Senate President Chuck Morse.
Two [of the worst] Senate Republican candidates had strong quarters: Herschel Walker in Georgia ($6.2 million) and Adam Laxalt in Nevada ($2.8 million).
The Daily Beast adds that Peter Thiel’s “New Right” puppet J.D. Vance’s campaign is broke. “J.D. Vance’s Campaign Fundraising Is Down to Its Bootstraps”, https://www.thedailybeast.com/jd-vances-campaign-fundraising-is-down-to-its-bootstraps
The key takeaway from Federal Election Commission filings this week, which show that between mid-April and the end of June, the Vance team raised a million dollars, spent more than that, and is a quarter of a million dollars in the hole with just four months until election day.
The Vance campaign has never been a major money draw.
Over the first three months of the year, the campaign directly raised $38,000 in total and got so close to bottoming out its cash reserves that in late March Vance personally floated himself a $600,000 bridge loan.
Eight weeks [after the primary], the campaign was in the red, reporting about $628,000 in the bank and $883,000 in debt—a deficit of more than $250,000.
His Democratic opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan, raised $9.1 million over the same period. The Ryan campaign told NBC News that in that time it added nearly 90,000 new donors and that most of the donations were in amounts of $100 or less.
It’s not the full picture for Vance, whose fundraising operation includes a leadership PAC and joint fundraising committees. But even that isn’t much better.
Most of the campaign’s haul last quarter came in transfers from the “Ohioans for JD” joint fundraising committee, which split about a million dollars between the campaign and Vance’s leadership PAC. The joint committee is still sitting on about $300,000 but owes about $200,000.
Another joint committee—“Vance Victory”—pulled in around $725,000. But the campaign has to share that with the leadership PAC and the Ohio Republican Party.
Vance’s leadership PAC, called “Working for Ohio,” is faring the best. The PAC added $108,000 to its stash last quarter, for a total of $461,000 on hand. And unlike the campaign and Ohioans for JD, this committee doesn’t have any debt.
But that won’t help the Vance campaign. Candidates can use leadership PAC money for a lot of things—some critics call the accounts “personal slush funds”—but they can’t spend those funds on their own campaigns. They can, however, transfer it to their allies, as Vance has, passing thousands of dollars to GOP candidates including his friend Blake Masters in Arizona and former Trump aide Max “Music Man” Miller, who is running for Congress in Ohio.
Most of his support comes from outside his own campaign, in the form of a super PAC called “Protect Ohio Values.”
The group, which has been accused by campaign watchdog groups of unlawful coordination with the Vance campaign, has only a handful of donors. But those donors have put millions of dollars behind the Ohio author—a total $17.4 million, with about $7 million of that coming after April 14.
But as the picture gets bigger, Vance’s circle of support actually looks smaller.
The handful of wealthy super PAC donors have outraised the Vance campaign nearly six to one. And the vast majority of the super PAC’s cash has come from just one person, Republican megadonor and Vance business partner Peter Thiel.
Since March 2021, Thiel has given the super PAC $15 million. That’s almost five times as much as the Vance campaign has raised altogether.
Aaron Blake writes, “Evidence grows of GOP’s potential 2022 candidate problem”, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/07/15/fix-gop-candidate-polls/
In several races that Republicans probably should win in a good year for them, their candidates are also lagging that national environment. The “generic ballot” hasn’t shifted as much toward Republicans as one might expect, and Republicans are also underperforming that generic ballot in swing states that should be at the top of the GOP’s takeover list. Polls suggest that could even imperil some states that should be sure things for the GOP.
Many of these states have frequently been spotlighted for their baggage-laden and extreme GOP candidates.
AARP is out with a pair of new, bipartisan polls in the crucial states of Georgia and Pennsylvania. Both went narrowly for Biden in 2020 and would be the kind of states Republicans should win in a good year. But their Senate nominees — Herschel Walker and Mehmet Oz — aren’t winning.
Oz trails Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) by six. A big reason appears to be Oz’s image rating, with is 2-to-1 negative: 30 percent favorable vs. 63 percent unfavorable.
Oz also trailed by nine points in a poll last month. In both polls, he even lagged behind GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, whose extremeness has led Republicans to suggest that they might not support him in the fall.
In red-trending Ohio, there are few high-quality polls. But almost every poll shows a surprisingly tight Senate race between Democratic congressman Tim Ryan and GOP nominee J.D. Vance. That’s despite the fact that Ohio is the kind of state that should be a slam dunk for the GOP in a good year. As in Georgia, a poll last month showed the GOP Senate nominee badly underperforming the top of the ticket.
One place Trump hasn’t yet made an endorsement is Missouri, another potential minefield for the GOP. The Senate primary races aren’t settled there, but the limited — and admittedly somewhat old — polling we have shows former governor Eric Greitens faring significantly worse in the general election than his top GOP opponents, state Attorney General Eric Schmitt and Rep. Vicky Hartzler.(Trump last week attacked Hartzler and had words of praise for Greitens, suggesting that he could still get involved.)
Two other swing states out West are worth keeping an eye on: Arizona and Nevada.
In Arizona, the GOP primary, as it is in Missouri, is very much up in the air — both for governor and Senate. Trump has endorsed Kari Lake in the governor’s race and Blake Masters in the Senate race. But the limited polling we have suggests that both are faring slightly — albeit very slightly — worse in the general election.
And in Nevada, former state attorney general Adam Laxalt (R) is trailing incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) by three points. Laxalt has been among the biggest promoters of Trump’s bogus stolen-election claims.
In virtually all of these states, Biden is way underwater, but that hasn’t yet translated into these Republicans performing like they might be expected to — or even showing a lead. Once we get more and better data and as we get closer to November, we’ll see if that holds.
But there’s a recent history of extreme Republicans jeopardizing winnable races, especially for Senate.
Democratic strategist Joe Trippi sounded pretty upbeat in a conversation with Bill Kristol on his party’s chances in the midterm elections. https://conversationswithbillkristol.org/video/joe-trippi-iv/
His observations at this point:
Democrats stand to increase their margin in the Senate because Republicans have nominated such bad candidates.
The election is moving away from being a pure referendum on Biden.
The repeal of Roe v. Wade has energized Democratic voters.
The House has become less swingy because of prior redistricting, so Republican gains there may be muted.
h/t Taegan Goddard
Ty Cobb, the lawyer who he led the White House response to special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation, has issued a blistering statement about Donald Trump, https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meetthepressblog/former-white-house-attorney-ty-cobb-big-lie-good-only-trump-rcna38318
NBC News on Thursday asked Cobb about the prospect of another Trump presidential campaign bid. The timing is uncertain, but Trump may announce that he’s running before the midterm elections in November.
In response, Cobb gave the following comment:
“One thing the Democrats know for certain is that Trump’s uncontrolled ego is his own worst enemy. They are praying they are able to goad him into an announcement for a 2024 presidential run.
“A 2024 declaration of his candidacy serves no interest but his self-defeating and overwhelming need for relevance, attention and money. Such an announcement also does not inoculate him from criminal investigation.
“He is a disaster for the Republican Party for which he prevented a Senate majority in 2020 and, as time will demonstrate, has already done the same for 2022 with his endorsements of unelectable candidates all based on their loyalty or his own driving desire for revenge.
“The Big Lie has been good only for Trump and has brought him millions in donations, which some evidence suggests may have been mishandled. The Big Lie, and the related violence, election interference and other perceived misconduct, was and is an affront to this nation and its first principles. It has permanently soiled the history pages and deepened the abyss that divides our country and continues to expand due to the delusions and lack of accountability of politicians in both parties.
“It should be disqualifying for Trump and his political acolytes, and would have been at any other time in our history. To modify a well known Seinfeld quote—SANITY NOW!
“The country needs desperately to move on with new and actual leadership from a younger generation. New leadership must return to serving and championing our Constitutional form of government and its three essential pillars and accompanying checks and balances.
“Because of the grand design of that Constitution and the courage of those who preceded us, the United States has led the world, fought tyranny, and promoted peace and freedom in our two and a half centuries. Now we must unite and save our own country—right now, while there is time.”
Hope that you’re right, but until it happens….
Karl Rove recently admitted in a hate-filled op-ed in Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal that “It’ll help Democrats if their Republican opponents say intemperate-to-insane things ill-suited for a general election. The other possible aid for Democratic candidates is Mr. Trump. If he announces a 2024 presidential bid before November—as is rumored—it’ll make the midterms a referendum on the former president[.]”
That was the only thing you got right Karl.