Update On Russo-Ukraine War: Moving Closer To World War III Today

I keep warning you that we are in the early stages of World War III. It’s coming folks.

Putin has set a deadline for his war in Ukraine to succeed – May 9, Victory Day (over Nazi Germany) – and if he is not victorious by this historical date, then all bets are off as to what he does next.

Donald Trump’s Russian minders keep threatening the U.S. and NATO with World War III. The latest such threat, Russian foreign minister: Threat of World War III is a ‘real’ danger:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday his country has “a feeling that the West wants Ukraine to continue to fight” in order to “wear out, exhaust the Russian army and the Russian military industrial war complex. This is an illusion.”

He is not wrong: U.S. wants Russian military ‘weakened’ from Ukraine invasion, Austin says: “The United States hopes the war in Ukraine will result in a “weakened” Russia that no longer has the capacity to invade its neighbors, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Monday — a sharpening of rhetoric toward Moscow as the conflict stretches into its third month.” “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine,” Austin said.

Lavrov made his remarks during an interview that aired on Russian state television. He appeared to be responding to comments made by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin after he traveled to Kyiv to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend. Austin said the U.S. wants Ukraine to stay a sovereign country and “to see Russia weakened to the point where it can’t do things like invade Ukraine.”

Any weapons and supplies sent to Ukraine from Western countries, including armored vehicles and Javelin anti-tank missiles, are “legitimate” targets for the Russian military, Lavrov said, and he accused NATO of being “in essence … engaged in a war with Russia through a proxy and arming that proxy. War means war.”

He also said Russia’s “key position” is to prevent nuclear war, and the “danger is serious, real … we must not underestimate it.” At the same time “everyone is reciting incantations that in no case can we allow World War III,” but NATO forces are “pouring oil on the fire” by giving Ukraine weapons, Lavrov declared.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted that everything Lavrov said should actually encourage allies to provide more weapons. “Russia loses last hope to scare the world off supporting Ukraine,” he said. “Thus the talk of a ‘real’ danger of World War III. This only means Moscow senses defeat in Ukraine. Therefore, the world must double down on supporting Ukraine so that we prevail and safeguard European and global security.“

Kuleba is correct. Russia has been exposed as a third-rate military by Ukraine’s forces, and has suffered a staggering rate of attrition:

According to Ukraine’s typically optimistic figures, Russia has lost around 3,600 armored vehicles and over 22,000 personnel to date. U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace gave a more conservative estimate Monday of “more than 2,000 armored vehicles knocked out, including at least 530 tanks” and about 15,000 personnel.

The most reliable source in the conflict so far has been the outstanding open-source intelligence site Oryx run by analyst Stijn Mitzer, which has gained wide recognition for producing objective numbers based on uniquely identifying every single photograph of a destroyed, abandoned or captured vehicle. Oryx’s current count stands at 562 tanks and 1,200 other armored vehicles for a total of 1,762 Russian losses [does not include personnel casualties].

Total losses are therefore likely to be somewhere between 2,000 and 3,000 vehicles, or 20% to 25% of the entire attacking force.

[A]nother issue it that the casualties appear to have been heaviest in elite units such as the VDV Airborne troops who failed to take Hostomel, leaving less capable units in the front line. The loss of a large number of generals – ten at the current count — may also leave less-capable commanders in charge.

[A]t the same time, Ukrainian forces are getting stronger. Thanks to captured Russian vehicles, they now have more tanks than before the invasion; according to the Pentagon, Ukraine now has more tanks on the ground than Russia. Allies are finally sending heavy weapons, including armored vehicles; the Ukrainian air force is being replenished; and air defenses are being bolstered with more S-300 missiles. And while Russian morale has slumped, Ukraine has grown increasingly confident. 

More: Russia warns of WWIII ahead of Western summit on arms to Ukraine:

Russia has warned of the “real” threat of World War III breaking out, ahead of a Tuesday meeting between the United States and allies over sending further arms to war-torn Ukraine.

Moscow’s invasion of its neighbour has triggered an outburst of support from Western nations that has seen weapons pour into the country to help it wage war against Russian troops.

But Western powers have been reluctant to deepen their involvement, for fear of sparking a conflict against nuclear-armed Russia.

Speaking to Russian news agencies, Moscow’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the risk of a World War III “is serious” and criticised Kyiv’s approach to floundering peace talks.

“It is real, you can’t underestimate it,” Lavrov said.

For months, President Volodymyr Zelensky has been asking Ukraine’s Western allies for heavy weapons — including artillery and fighter jets — vowing his forces could turn the tide of the war with more firepower.

The calls appear to be resonating now, with a host of NATO countries pledging to provide a range of heavy weapons and equipment, despite protests from Moscow.

In a landmark trip to Kyiv over the weekend, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Zelensky and promised $700 million in new aid to Ukraine.

“The first step in winning is believing that you can win,” Austin told a group of journalists after meeting the Ukrainian leader.

“We believe that we can win — they can win — if they have the right equipment, the right support.”

And on the invitation of the United States, 40 countries will also hold a security summit in Germany on Tuesday to discuss further arms to Ukraine — as well as to ensure the country’s longer-term security once the war is over.

Among the invited countries are European allies of the United States, but also Australia and Japan — who fear that a Russian victory in Ukraine will set a precedent and encourage the territorial ambitions of China.

Finland and Sweden — traditionally neutral countries that have been considering NATO membership since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — are also on the guestlist.

And on the Russian side, President Vladimir Putin is due to hold talks with Turkish autocrat Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday, his spokesman told RIA Novosti. [Turkey is still a member of NATO.]

A Russian commander said last Friday that Moscow wants to take “full control” of eastern and southern Ukraine, in part so it could have a path to neighboring Moldova — raising fears that the nearly two-month war could spill outside of Ukrainian borders. Commander hints at Russian ambitions beyond Ukraine:

The comments from Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District, seemed to hint that the Kremlin — which has been stymied in its bid to take over the Ukrainian capital — still wants to conquer wide swaths of its neighbor’s land, and potentially threaten the nations that lie beyond. They drew swift condemnation from Moldova, where residents have worried since the beginning of the war they could be next in the Kremlin’s crosshairs.

Minnekayev said capturing Ukraine’s east and south would create a “land corridor” to the Crimean Peninsula — which the Kremlin annexed in 2014 — and give Moscow influence over “vital objects of the Ukrainian economy,” according to the Russia state media outlet Tass. It would also provide “another way out to Transnistria,” Minnekayev said, referring to a thin strip of land that runs along Moldova’s border with Ukraine that functions as a separate nation, though it is not recognized as such, even by Russia.

Minnekayev’s comments came at the end of another grim week in Ukraine — particularly in the eastern Donbas region, where Kremlin forces have refocused their fire in recent days. The devastated southern port city of Mariupol remained under siege, with Russia vowing to trap remaining Ukrainian forces that have been holed up in a steel plant there.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously said the invasion will continue until “full completion,” without detailing what that means, and it was not clear whether Minnekayev’s comments describe official, high-level thinking in Russia. But they give fresh insight into the broader ambitions of those fighting for the Kremlin, including plans for a Russian-controlled passage to Transnistria, the breakaway enclave in Moldova that is held by pro-Russian separatists and hosts roughly 1,500 Russian troops.

Moldova is not a member of NATO, though an incursion on its borders would be an alarming expansion of Russia’s war effort. The remarks were the first time a senior Russian military official has hinted at Russia expanding its offensive beyond Ukraine.

Breaking News: Ruters reports, Tensions surge after breakaway Moldovan region reports attacks:

Ukraine accused Moscow on Tuesday of trying to drag Moldova’s breakaway region of Transdniestria into its war on Kyiv after authorities in the Moscow-backed region said they had been targeted by a series of attacks.

Authorities in Transdniestria, an unrecognised sliver of land bordering southwestern Ukraine, said that explosions had damaged two radio masts that broadcast in Russian and that one of its military units had been attacked.

History does not repeat, but it does rhyme. World War II began with the Gleiwitz incident, a false flag attack on the radio station Sender Gleiwitz in Gleiwitz (then Germany and today Gliwice in Poland) staged by Nazi Germany on the night of 31 August 1939. Along with some two dozen similar incidents, the attack was manufactured by Germany as a casus belli to justify the invasion of Poland.

It provided few details, but blamed Ukraine, raising its “terrorist” threat level to red and introducing checkpoints around its towns.

“The traces of these attacks lead to Ukraine”, Russian news agency TASS quoted Vadim Krasnoselsky, the self-styled president of Transdniestria, as saying. “I assume that those who organised this attack have the purpose of dragging Transdniestria into the conflict.”

Reuters could not independently verify the accounts of the attacks.

Russia has long used false flag operations for its dezinformatsiya war propaganda.

And what is NATO’s response to a second country invaded by Russia? What is the trip-line for war?

Also today, Bloomberg reports, Russia to Halt Gas to Poland on Wednesday in Major Escalation:

Russia will cut off the gas to Poland on Wednesday in a major escalation in the standoff between Moscow and Europe over energy supplies and the war in Ukraine.

Moscow appears to be making good on a threat to halt gas supplies to countries that refuse President Vladimir Putin’s new demand to pay for the crucial fuel in rubles. Europe has said that doing so would breach sanctions and strengthen Russia’s hand. Poland has been particularly vociferous in its criticism of Russia and has refused to comply with the new terms.

Poland’s main gas supplier PGNiG said it’s been told that all flows will stop from Wednesday. Minutes earlier, Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC issued a warning that Poland must pay up for its gas supplies — on Tuesday and in the Russian currency.

“I can confirm we’ve received such threats from Gazprom which are linked among other things to the means of payment,” Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters in Berlin. “Poland is sticking to the arrangements and maybe Russia will try to punish Poland” by cutting deliveries.

European gas prices surged as much as 17% as traders calculated the risk of other European countries being hit next. The threat of cutoffs has been looming for weeks, but there was an indication last week that the European Union was suggesting a potential way out of the standoff.

Late April and May is when the first payments in rubles fall due — and European governments and energy company executives are in many cases still trying to figure out how best to respond. Europe is hugely dependent on Russian gas, and has so far mostly shielded energy from sanctions.

“The possible cut may set a precedent for additional curtailments following Russia’s request for payment in rubles,” Patricio Alvarez, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence said.

The focus now turns to other European capitals, particularly Germany, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas.

In Rome, the government is monitoring the situation, and the concern is that what is happening to Poland could now occur elsewhere, according to a person familiar with the situation. But for now the assessment is that there is no immediate risks to cut off gas to Italy, the person said.

Poland says it’s fully prepared for a cutoff of all energy supplies and has been outlining plans to live without Russian gas even before the war. The country’s long-term gas contract with Russia expires at the end of this year and the government had repeatedly said it didn’t plan to extend it. It has lined up LNG supplies and plans to start a pipeline from Norway in October.

The government said on Tuesday it has enough fuel in storage. Customers won’t be affected, and the government plans to keep filling storage up to 90%.

“This is a turning point that has been accelerated by Russia today,” Piotr Naimski, the country’s official in charge of strategic energy infrastructure, told reporters.

The European Union’s response to Russia should be “I’ll see your cutoff of Russian gas and raise you an embargo of Russian gas and oil. Fuck off!” The EU was not there yet on Monday, but its position may have changed as of today. Borrell says no EU agreement on Russian energy embargo:

There was insufficient support from European Union member states for a complete embargo or punitive tariff on Russian oil and gas imports, the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell was quoted as saying by German newspaper Die Welt on Monday.

“At the moment, we in the EU do not have a unified position on this question,” Borrell told the newspaper.

Oil exports are the Kremlin’s main source of foreign currency and many within the EU have called for an end to oil payments because they effectively finance the war in Ukraine, which Russia calls a “special military operation”.

Some EU countries are pushing for a sixth sanctions package on Russia and Brussels is preparing a full impact assessment of an oil ban as part of possible further measures.

Borrell said the topic will be discussed at the next EU summit due at the end of next month and that he did not expect any decision on the matter before then.

“A final proposal for an embargo on oil and gas is not yet on the table,” he said.

Time’s up, Dude. Call a virtual online emergency meeting. The embargo of Russian gas and oil has to happen now. Show some damn leadership!

The EU Commission will probably make proposals for a sixth package of sanctions to the member states this week, Die Welt said, without citing sources.

All EU states are working to cut their dependency on Russian oil and gas, Borrell said, adding that he believed the bloc will be able to reduce its dependency eventually.

“At some point it will happen and then Russia will feel painfully that the revenues from the oil and gas business are being lost,” he added.

Mañana is not good enough, Dude, the EU has to act this week.  As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “War means war.” This is where we are, Europe needs to step up and act now.