Was The Surge® a Success? GAO Says Not So Much

Posted by AZBlueMeanie:

John McCain has opted to become a Johnny-one-note candidate, asserting that he alone is qualified to be president because he alone had the knowledge, experience and foresight to insist upon The Surge® when all others about him were losing their heads. Only McCain in his superior wisdom knows what is best both for the American people and the Iraqis, despite what the people of these countries may think best.  Sounds like a man with a Napoleon complex, doesn’t it?

McCain and his loyal allies in the McMedia have been baiting Barack Obama for weeks, demanding Obama should admit that McCain was right and he was wrong about the success of The Surge®. Said McCain, "I hope he will have a chance to admit that he badly misjudged the situation, and that he was wrong when he said the surge wouldn’t work, and admit that the surge has succeeded and that we are winning the war."

This is the real McCain, the school yard bully who no doubt earned his childhood nickname "McNasty."  He is still the same schoolyard bully who wants to get the new kid in school down on the ground in a headlock and give him noogies demanding that he say "you’re the best."  Well, Barack Obama has withstood this childish assault from McCain and his McMedia allies, giving a nuanced and correct answer that The Surge® was among several elements to come together in a complex Iraq society which reduced the level of violence. Obama has consistently praised our troops for their sacrifice and service.

Of course, McNasty insists that it was his insistence upon the tactical maneuver of adding more troops which alone reduced the level of violence, and if Obama will not concede to him that "you’re the best" for insisting that the tactical maneuver of adding more troops alone was the reason for reducing the level of violence, then McNasty will say Obama is dishonoring the service of our troops.  Even though Obama praises the service of our troops. This guy is just a dick.

There is also a very real danger in a simple mind like his that believes military power alone is the solution to every problem.  He is more inclined to resort to military power to solve problems.  A vote for McCain is a vote for more war.

Even McCain in his rare lucid moments has stated that The Surge® was not just the tactical military maneuver of adding an additional 30,000 troops in Iraq to quell the violence, but was one element of a strategic plan called "The New Way Forward," which was intended to quell the violence to allow for ethnic and sectarian reconciliation that would then lead to a government capable of governing, defending and sustaining itself.  With a functioning government, reconstruction of the infrastructure and economy of Iraq could begin to return life in Iraq to normal.

So how successful was The Surge® in achieving its broader strategic goals?  The Government Accounting Office (GAO) has just released its report "Securing, Stabilizing, and Rebuilding Iraq: Progress Report: Some Gains Made, Updated Strategy Needed" (July 23, 2008).  You didn’t know?  Of course you didn’t because the McMedia never reported it.  They are too busy parroting McCain’s favorite attack lines against Obama because politics is just fun and games to them, to be reported like a sporting event, who scored, who is ahead, and who is behind.  Their simple minds would explode if they ever exerted themselves with actual fact checking and political analysis.

So let’s take a look at the highlights of the report summary. U.S. GAO – Summary (links to highlights, full report and accessible text).

"In the security area, violence–as measured by the number of enemy-initiated attacks–decreased about 80 percent from June 2007 to June 2008, trained Iraqi security forces have increased substantially, and many units are leading counterinsurgency operations. However, as of July 2008, 8 of 18 provincial governments do not yet have lead responsibility for security in their provinces, and DOD reported that, in June 2008, less than 10 percent of Iraqi security forces were at the highest readiness level and therefore considered capable of performing operations without coalition support. The security environment remains volatile and dangerous."

"In the legislative area, Iraq has enacted key legislation to return some Ba’athists to government, grant amnesty to detained Iraqis, and define provincial powers. The unfinished Iraqi legislative agenda includes enacting laws that will provide the legal framework for sharing oil revenues, disarming militias, and holding provincial elections."  (The act for provincial elections was recently threatened with a veto by the President of Iraq, and provincial elections intended to occur in October are now indefinitely postponed into 2009, due to opposition from the Kurds).

"On economic and infrastructure issues, Iraq spent only 24 percent of the $27 billion it budgeted for its reconstruction efforts between 2005 and 2007. Although crude oil production improved for short periods, the early July 2008 average production capacity of about 2.5 million barrels per day was below the U.S. goal of 3 million barrels per day. In addition, while State reports that U.S. goals for Iraq’s water sector are close to being reached, the daily supply of electricity in Iraq met only slightly more than half of demand in early July 2008."

"The New Way Forward" strategy and the military surge that was central to it end in July 2008, and many agree that the situation remains fragile. GAO recommends an updated strategy for Iraq for several reasons. First, much has changed in Iraq since The New Way Forward began in January 2007. Violence is down, U.S. surge forces are leaving, and the United States is negotiating a security agreement with Iraq to replace the expiring UN mandate. Second, The New Way Forward only articulates U.S. goals and objectives for the phase that ends in July 2008. Third, the goals and objectives of The New Way Forward are contained in disparate documents rather than a single strategic plan. Furthermore, the classified MNF-I/U.S. Embassy Joint Campaign Plan is not a strategic plan; it is an operational plan…"

So while John McCain goes about the country trumpeting the success of The Surge® (which ended last week), the GAO is warning that the U.S. is currently without any strategic plan forward and recommends a comprehensive strategic plan for the next phase.  In other words, the Bush administration has once again failed to plan strategically for what to do next.  Lessons decidedly not learned.

John McCain does not discuss his strategic plan for the next phase.  He doesn’t have one. He is satisfied with thumping his chest and proclaiming "victory" for the qualified success of the security element of The Way Forward, which remains fragile due to the lack of political reconciliation between ethnic and sectarian groups.  McCain simply ignores altogether the failure of The Way Forward to achieve its legislative, infrastructure and economic goals. 

Overall, The Surge® was not the smashing success McCain claims.