NAU’s Social Research Laboratory apparently having nothing better to do with its funding decided to run a Presidential poll.Download srl_release_2008_election_matchups.pdf
The poll was conducted April 13-19, 2007 among 493 randomly selected, registered Arizona voters. Survey results are valid at a +/- 4.5 percent margin of error, at a 95% confidence level. Unfortunately, I don’t know what ratios of party registration of participants was used for the survey. I’ll assume that they were fairly representative of the current statewide ratios for party preference in the state, but the choice of that ratio makes a huge difference in this sort of head-to-head polling.
I think name recognition, a wider field of candidates, positive and negative views, and likelihood of voting for a candidate in the preference election, not head-to-heads would have been more interesting and productive. This sort of poll really sheds very little light on how Arizonans are feeling; as you will see, there is surprising little useful information to be had. Our esteemed opposites over at Arizona 8th have taken their cut on the numbers and drawn their own conclusions, most of which I disagree with, of course.
The biggest noise will probably come from the Edwards camp. The polling shows Edwards as the strongest nominee among the top 3 in the survey. (please ignore the spelling error of Giuliani in the charts – I’ve beaten my personal assistant for the error already; commenting on his error will just humiliate him further)
Clearly, getting your ass handed to you by 2 out of 3 likely nominees is hardly much to brag about. But Edwards does perform slightly stronger than either Clinton or Obama overall, and beats Romney handily (though not outside the MoE, as Arizona 8th mistakenly states).
In contrast to Edwards, Clinton does a clean sweep, getting demolished by all 3 potential nominees.
This result may be indicative of a great deal of animosity and/or apprehension by independent voters regarding Senator Clinton. That they would vote for a relative unknown like Romney over the well-known Senator indicates a problem when contrasted with the results of the other two Democrats.
Obama’s numbers are very similar to Edwards’, but insignificantly lower (0-3%, and no difference when facing John McCain).
In gross terms (the only ones that arguably could matter this far out), Obama and Edwards are the same: both beat the money leader, Romney, and are beaten by the heir apparent, McCain, and the likely beneficiary of McCain’s on-going flame-out, Giuliani.
I think McCain’s campaign is on life support. His thorough thrashing on the Daily Show yesterday and his fund raising problems indicate he’s hit a terminal phase. His message on Iraq is a rotting albatross around his neck. I feel pretty strongly that he’s not going to make it to an Arizona preference primary to benefit of the favorite son effect. Hence, I don’t think it matters all that much how McCain did in this poll, except that he did not significantly outperform Giuliani. What would have been much more illuminating is a Giuliani-McCain head-to-head; I suspect that such a poll would be much closer than it should be considering this is McCain’s home state.
This poll does show that Giuliani can win in Arizona just as strongly as McCain. That gives Giuliani some substantial rhetorical armament: he performs as strongly as McCain in the Senator’s own state. That’s a good argument for McCain’s irrelevance.
As for Romney’s showing, I put it down to the fact that voters just don’t know him. With a substantial and politically powerful Mormon population in Arizona, I fully expect him to be more than competitive in Arizona. I don’t think he’d be a push-over for any Democrat.
So how to read this poll for the Democrats? Well, it doesn’t have much to read. It is missing Richardson, who I think would do well in Arizona, being Governor next door and very much a Democrat in the mold of Napolitano. It also doesn’t account for the looming presence just off stage left of Vice President Al Gore. If he were to enter the race, CW changes instantly. Not including him in these head to heads was a mistake, in my view, even though he’s not announced.
There are only two strong and sure facts to carry away from this poll: Democrats are going to have to work very hard to take Arizona in 2008, even with the Iraq war and all the other baggage of the GOP, no matter who their nominee is; and, McCain’s weakness is made glaringly clear by his results in comparison to Giuliani.
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Francine,
I’d vote for them tomorrow.
As Tenet says in his book soon to be published, “Reality is more complex than convenient.”
Wouldn’t it be great to be led by great leaders? I wonder what that feels like. I have never had the experience.
Jon Stewart for president – Keith Olbermann for veep – now, there’s a ticket I could go for. And no, I am not drunk – just doing a bit of dreaming. Imagine having a bright, witty pair running for office! OK, time to go back to sleep – dreaming beats reality anytime!
McCain is done, stick a fork in him. Once Guiliani implodes (and he will) watch Romney but don’t count out that old standby, Newt. He’s waiting to ride in on a right wing wave of support.
Jon Stewart is the best. He shows mainstream journalists as being the gutless group of sycophants that they actually are.
Richardson Leads Romney in 2008 U.S. Race
April 25, 2007
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Bill Richardson could defeat a
prospective Republican presidential nominee in the United States,
according to a poll by Rasmussen Reports. 42 per cent of respondents
would support the New Mexico governor in 2008, while 34 per cent would
vote for former Massachusetts senator Mitt Romney.
Polling Data
Romney v. Richardson
Bill Richardson (D)
42%
Mitt Romney (R)
34%
Source: Rasmussen Reports
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/15517
I thought this was very interesting.
Can’t resist making the brief remark that McCain is flaming out, and in my opinion it is just going to keep getting worse until someone enlightens him to just stop.
I have already posted my projection that Giuliani will prevail here for the GOP, not Romney, and Mormonism is far more problematic on a national scale than the Catholicism Kennedy faced in 1960.
I will also go out on a little bit of a limb and project an even stronger “blue surge” in 2008 not just due to Iraq, but due to the continuing escalation and unraveling of the level of corruption and lying running rampant. I think this will hurt the GOP candidate.
According to Tedski, word on the street is that Renzi throws in the towel tomorrow.
I wanted to say more about McCain. I think his overwhelming support of the surge is what is going to kill him with his strength among independents…any he ever had…and there are more independents now then ever in American recorded history. So Michael and Francine…you are just right as rain!
Next, I still don’t count him out. I said on a few conservate blogs that I like to read that McCain SHOULD be their candidate of choice. He is the most socially conservative and supportive of the war of any of the candidates. Period. Romney is constantly sucking up and changing positions. His record in Mass. as Governor, when dug into, will reveal a LOT of positions that conservatives will not find palatable. Giuliani is a Rockefeller Republican…nuff said.
Lets just say this…Im pretty liberal and I would vote for almost anyone on the left over McCain, among Republicans I would support Romney over McCain, I would support Giuliani in a second over McCain. His stance on abortion, gay rights, and a host of other social issues just plain freaks me out.
Finally, what really suprises me when I read conservative blogs is just how angry conservatives are at McCain. The biggest issue that comes up over and over again is McCain-Feingold, which made it difficult for corporations and candidates to fill the coffers of conservative grassroots organizations with money.
It aint about ideology folks, a lot of times it is about the green.
I think that this poll is quite quite early for a good read on McCain. Remember also that the man is our Senator and some might argue (me) that he should be polling in the 60s, not the 50s. The only person that I can remember in recent years that didn’t win their homestate was Al Gore (good lord and some want him back).
I don’t see how this is bad for McCain in any way. A blow out is a blowout is a blowout. Just because Giuliani also blows away the Democratic competition is no slight to McCain. In fact, it shows that the anti-McCain movement on the right is not taking a toll (at least in a general election matchup) and that he is not being punished for his pro-war stance with independents and cross-over democrats, at least in Arizona.
I actually agree about Romney, his future is ahead.
Electability is a big question mark for him, and this does little to help him overcome that.
I agree that RIchardson should be included, and after the debate tonight, I suspect that he will be. Look for Edwards to get a boost as well. A little of Obama’s shine will come off as he demonstrates his debating skills to be overrated.
“His [MCain] message on Iraq is a rotting albatross around his neck.” Great line, Michael! I saw that program and I can tell you – it was amazing!!! Jon Stewart and the audience handed McCain his head on a platter!