Much has been made this past week about Poland offering its old Mig-29 Russian built aircraft to Ukraine via the U.S. through Germany. The Department of Defense said “thanks, but no thanks,” that’s not a viable option. Republican senators like Mitt Romney started howling “just give them the damn planes,” trying to turn this into a political football rather than consider a sound military strategy.
The Washington Post reports, U.S. all but declines Poland’s offer to give Ukraine its old warplanes:
The United States all but declined an offer from Poland on Tuesday to deliver an unspecified number 28 MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine so that the warplanes could be used against invading Russian forces.
“We do not believe Poland’s proposal is a tenable one,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in a statement.
The unusual public offer, posted on the website of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, blindsided U.S. officials who said they were not consulted by the Polish government ahead of the proposal.
Poland has sought to equip Ukraine with aircraft to fight Russia even as Moscow has warned that any country hosting Ukraine’s military aircraft would be considered a party to the ongoing armed conflict there.
In its statement, Poland said it is “ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MiG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.” Ramstein is an American military facility located in Germany.
Kirby raised the prospect that Poland’s proposal could inflame tensions with Russia, which has depicted the conflict in Ukraine as one against Western aggression. Fighter jets “departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance,” he said, adding, “It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it.”
The move by Poland appeared intended to shift the responsibility for delivering the aircraft — and risking a potential Russian military retaliation — to the United States. It occurred as the No. 3 official at the State Department, Victoria Nuland, testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“To my knowledge, it wasn’t pre-consulted with us that they plan to give these planes to us,” Nuland, the under secretary of state for political affairs, told lawmakers. She characterized it as a “surprise move by the Poles.”
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that while all NATO countries have a “green light” to send fighter planes to Ukraine, the United States seeks to avoid directly confronting Russia. Washington has sent billions of dollars in military equipment to Ukraine in recent years.
The AP adds, Pentagon says Poland’s jet offer for Ukraine ‘not tenable’:
The handover of Poland’s 28 Soviet-made MiG-29s would signal Western resolve to do more for Ukraine. Militarily, however, the number of planes offered would make it unlikely to be a game-changer. And MiG-29s are inferior to more sophisticated Russian aircraft and could be easy prey for Russian pilots and Russian missiles.
A senior U.S. defense official has said Ukrainians are flying relatively few of their existing aircraft, for relatively little time, as it is. The defense official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the U.S. assessment, said it’s possible that Ukraine does not need more planes and would benefit most from more of the weapons it uses effectively every day, including anti-aircraft Stinger and anti-tank Javelin missiles.
The official also said that Russia currently has the capacity to reach almost the entire country of Ukraine with its surface-to-air missiles, including from within Russia and from ships in the Black Sea.
Russia has declared that supporting Ukraine’s air force would be tantamount to joining the war, and could spur retaliation. The U.S. is currently providing millions of dollars worth of Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, and presumably munitions and supplies to Ukraine, and the Russians apparently don’t see being an arms supplier as a red line.
Currently Turkey, a NATO ally, is providing Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 drones (assembled in Turkey, but which rely extensively on electronics made in the United States and Canada). Again, the Russians apparently don’t see this as a red line either.
The New York Times reports, Over Ukraine, Lumbering Turkish-Made Drones Are an Ominous Sign for Russia:
Ukraine’s most sophisticated attack drone is about as stealthy as a crop duster: slow, low-flying and completely defenseless. So when the Russian invasion began, many experts expected the few drones that the Ukrainian forces managed to get off the ground would be shot down in hours.
But more than two weeks into the conflict, Ukraine’s drones — Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 models that buzz along at about half the speed of a Cessna — are not only still flying, they also shoot guided missiles at Russian missile launchers, tanks and supply trains, according to Pentagon officials.
[T]he people of Ukraine are singing songs about the Bayraktar drone and repeatedly posting online footage of destroyed Russian armor. They have given the name Bayraktar to a lemur born last week at the zoo in Kyiv, the capital.
A senior Pentagon official confirmed that Ukrainian forces had successfully used armed Bayraktars to carry out several attacks on the huge Russian military convoy that has been making its way toward Kyiv. The drones have also been used for reconnaissance, hunting for targets for Ukrainian ground troops. The Pentagon official said he could not confirm the authenticity of videos posted online that purported to show Bayraktar airstrikes.
[M]ilitary planners and civilian experts cautioned that the drones — which have no self-defense systems, are easily spotted by radar and cruise at only about 80 miles an hour — would be sitting ducks for Russia’s many-layered air defense system. Russian forces have long-range cruise missiles that can destroy the drones on the ground, short-range missile systems that can easily knock them out of the air, and electronic jammers that can block the drones’ communications, leaving them to drop lifeless from the sky.
Generals are always prepared to fight the last war, as the old proverb goes. A couple of dozen old Soviet Mig-29’s are not going to help Ukraine.
Modern air warfare is conducted with unmanned arial vehicles (UAV), or drones. And this is where the U.S. can provide Ukraine with a modern air force.
LISTEN: Forget #MiG29s from Poland. Want to change the game and make Russia terrified? Give them MQ-9 #REAPERDRONES. https://t.co/twkBhkqCov
— Malcolm Nance (@MalcolmNance) March 11, 2022
Excerpt from a U.S. Air Force Fact Sheet on the MQ-9 Reaper:
Mission
The Reaper is employed primarily as an intelligence-collection asset and secondarily against dynamic execution targets. Given its significant loiter time, wide-range sensors, multi-mode communications suite, and precision weapons, it provides a unique capability to perform strike, coordination, and reconnaissance against high-value, fleeting, and time-sensitive targets.
Reapers can also perform the following missions and tasks: intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, close air support, combat search and rescue, precision strike, buddy-lase, convoy and raid overwatch, route clearance, target development, and terminal air guidance. The MQ-9’s capabilities make it uniquely qualified to conduct irregular warfare operations in support of combatant commander objectives.
Features
The Reaper is part of a remotely piloted aircraft system. A fully operational system consists of sensor/weapon-equipped aircraft, ground control station, Predator Primary Satellite Link, and spare equipment along with operations and maintenance crews for deployed 24-hour missions.
The basic crew consists of a rated pilot to control the aircraft and command the mission, and an enlisted aircrew member to operate sensors and guide weapons. To meet combatant commanders’ requirements, the Reaper delivers tailored capabilities using mission kits containing various weapons and sensor payload combinations.
The MQ-9 baseline system carries the Multi-Spectral Targeting System, which has a robust suite of visual sensors for targeting. The MTS-B integrates an infrared sensor, color, monochrome daylight TV camera, shortwave infrared camera, laser designator, and laser illuminator. The full-motion video from each of the imaging sensors can be viewed as separate video streams or fused.
The unit also incorporates a laser rangefinder/designator, which precisely designates targets for employment of laser-guided munitions, such as the Guided Bomb Unit-12 Paveway II. The Reaper is also equipped with a synthetic aperture radar. The MQ-9 can also employ up to eight laser-guided missiles, Air-to-Ground Missile-114 Hellfire, which possess highly accurate, low-collateral damage, anti-armor and anti-personnel engagement capabilities.
The remotely piloted aircraft can be disassembled and loaded into a single container for deployment worldwide. The entire system can be transported in the C-130 Hercules or larger aircraft. The MQ-9 aircraft operates from standard U.S. airfields with clear line-of-sight to the ground data terminal antenna, which provides line-of-sight communications for takeoff and landing. The PPSL provides over-the-horizon communications for the aircraft and sensors.
The MQ-9 has also been modified for extended range operations through the addition of external fuel tanks capable of holding 1,300 lbs of fuel. This provides for greater on station time and further range. The modification also adds an extra blade to the propeller and an alcohol-water injection system to improve takeoff performance.
The primary concept of operations, remote split operations, employs a launch-and-recovery ground control station for take-off and landing operations at the forward operating location, while the crew based in continental United States executes command and control of the remainder of the mission via beyond-line-of-sight links. Remote split operations result in a smaller number of personnel deployed to a forward location, consolidates control of the different flights to stateside locations, and as such, simplifies command and control functions as well as the logistical supply challenges for the weapons system.
In addition to sophisticated UAVs, Ukraine needs more air defense anti-aircraft systems. The Stinger missiles are a good start, but there are other air defense systems that we could be providing Ukraine.
The Russians haven’t objected to the slow Turkish drones, but I suppose we will find out if they object to this more sophisticated U.S. drone. As long as the drones are not being operated from CENTCOM in Tampa, Florida or from a NATO country, but from within Ukraine, we are not directly confronting Russia. We are just an arms supplier like other nations.
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Following President Biden’s speech today, the White House released this fact sheet. “Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine”, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/16/fact-sheet-on-u-s-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
President Biden today announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total U.S. security assistance committed to Ukraine to $1 billion in just the past week, and a total of $2 billion since the start of the Biden Administration. The assistance will take the form of direct transfers of equipment from the Department of Defense to the Ukrainian military to help them defend their country against Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion.
The new $800 million assistance package includes:
800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
2,000 Javelin, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons, and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems;
100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
100 grenade launchers, 5,000 rifles, 1,000 pistols, 400 machine guns, and 400 shotguns;
Over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds;
25,000 sets of body armor; and
25,000 helmets.
In addition to the weapons listed above, previous United States assistance committed to Ukraine includes:
Over 600 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
Approximately 2,600 Javelin anti-armor systems;
Five Mi-17 helicopters;
Three patrol boats;
Four counter-artillery and counter-unmanned aerial system tracking radars;
Four counter-mortar radar systems;
200 grenade launchers and ammunition;
200 shotguns and 200 machine guns;
Nearly 40 million rounds of small arms ammunition and over 1 million grenade, mortar, and artillery rounds;
70 High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs) and other vehicles;
Secure communications, electronic warfare detection systems, body armor, helmets, and other tactical gear;
Military medical equipment to support treatment and combat evacuation;
Explosive ordnance disposal and demining equipment; and
Satellite imagery and analysis capability.
In addition to the U.S.-produced short-range air defense systems the Ukrainians have been using to great effect, the United States has also identified and is helping the Ukrainians acquire additional, longer-range systems on which Ukraine’s forces are already trained, as well as additional munitions for those systems.
The United States continues to expedite the authorization and facilitation of additional assistance to Ukraine from our Allies. At least 30 countries have provided security assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began. In 2022, the Department of State authorized third-party transfers of defensive equipment from more than 14 countries, a number that continues to grow as Allies and Partners increase support to Ukraine.
The White House is going a cheaper route than Reaper Drones with Hellfire missiles. NBC Des reports, “Biden admin weighs providing Ukraine with killer drones called Switchblades”, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-asks-biden-admin-armed-drones-jamming-gear-surface-air-missile-rcna20197
No decisions have been made, but the officials said the White House is mulling whether to equip Ukraine with explosives-laden “loitering missiles,” called Switchblades, as part of a new package of military aid President Joe Biden is expected to discuss Wednesday.
There are two variants of the weapon, the Switchblade 300 and the 600, that have been sold to U.S. Special Operations Command by manufacturer AeroVironment, based in the suburbs of Washington, D.C. The 300 is designed for pinpoint strikes on personnel, and the larger 600 is meant to destroy tanks and other armored vehicles.
NBC News reported on an exclusive demonstration of the Switchblade 300 in December. AeroVironment officials said at the time that the government forbade them from demonstrating the 600.
[T]he Switchblades are essentially robotic smart bombs, equipped with cameras, guidance systems and explosives. They can be programmed to automatically strike targets miles away, and they can be steered around objectives until the time is right to strike. The company says the 600 can fly for 40 minutes and up to 50 miles.
They are single-use weapons, which is why they have been dubbed “kamikaze drones.” But they are orders of magnitude cheaper than the Hellfire missiles fired by U.S. Reaper drones. The 300 can cost as little as $6,000, by some estimates.
Both weapons can be set up in minutes and launched from tubes. They fly much faster than the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones that Ukraine has been using to inflict damage on Russia, and presumably they would be able to penetrate the spotty air defenses Russia is maintaining over its forces.
If the Switchblade were given to Ukraine, it could result in the most significant use of the weapon in combat to date. The U.S. military used the Switchblade in combat under limited circumstances in Afghanistan and elsewhere but has not publicized that fact, sources familiar with the matter have said.
[T]he United Kingdom is the only foreign country that so far has been authorized to purchase the Switchblade.
Sources with knowledge of the matter said Ukraine is asking the Biden administration for armed drones, anti-ship missiles, “off-the-shelf” electronic jamming equipment and surface-to-air missiles that can strike aircraft at higher altitudes.
The wish list recently submitted to Washington by Ukraine also includes a request for more portable Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and Javelin anti-tank weapons, which have already proved crucial in the government’s fight against a larger, better-armed Russian force, said the sources, including two European diplomats familiar with Kyiv’s requirements.
Ukraine wanted help to bolster its electronic warfare efforts against Russia with “off-the-shelf” gear, including satellite navigation and communications-jamming equipment and ground-based communications to oversee drones, the sources said.
[T]he administration previously has sought to avoid delivering weapons that feature sensitive technology, because it could either fall into the hands of Russian troops or prove impractical when Ukrainian forces need equipment that can quickly be placed into action with a minimum of training.
Administration officials also worry about taking action that could raise the risk of a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. When the administration ruled out a proposal to help Poland send Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine, the Defense Department cited an intelligence assessment that concluded such a move could escalate tensions with Russia.
Politico confirms, “U.S. sending Switchblade drones to Ukraine in $800 million package”, https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/16/us-sends-switchblade-drones-to-ukraine-00017836
The U.S. will send 100 Switchblade drones to Ukraine as part of the Biden administration’s new $800 million weapons package, Texas Rep. Mike McCaul, the top Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told POLITICO.
The inclusion of the “tactical” drones, which crash into their targets, represents a new phase of weaponry being sent to Ukraine by the U.S., which so far has shipped mostly anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. An administration official confirmed McCaul’s account that the U.S. is sending the Switchblade.
The Switchblade is a small, light drone that can loiter in the air for up to 30 minutes before being directed to its target by an operator on the ground, dozens of miles away. The drone is launched from a tube, like a mortar shell. Its real-time GPS guidance allows a service member in the field to fly it until the moment it crashes and explodes into whatever the target might be.
[McCaul] also said that the U.S. was “working with allies” to send more S-300 surface-to-air missile systems to Ukraine. The country has had the S-300 for years, so troops should require little-to-no training on how to operate the Soviet-era anti-aircraft equipment. CNN reported that Slovakia had preliminarily agreed to transfer their S-300s to Ukraine.
The revelations come shortly after President Joe Biden announced the new $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, which also includes 800 more Stinger anti-aircraft systems, 2,000 anti-armor Javelins, 1,000 light anti-armor weapons and 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems. The AT-4 is a lightweight recoilless rifle already used by American special operations forces.
[To] further help, there is a push to get Eastern European allies to send new air defense systems to Ukraine that the U.S. doesn’t have. At the top of the list are mobile, Russian-made missile systems such as the SA-8 and S-300. Like the S-300, Ukraine also possesses SA-8s.
The SA-8 is a mobile, short-range air defense system still in the warehouses of Romania, Bulgaria and Poland. The larger, long-range S-300 is still in use by Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s trip to Europe this week will include not only NATO headquarters in Brussels, but also stops in Bulgaria and Slovakia — countries that own S-300s and SA-8s — before heading back to Washington, D.C.
“The White House has approved an additional $200 million in arms and equipment for Ukraine, administration officials said on Saturday, responding to urgent requests from President Volodymyr Zelensky for more aid to stave off the Russian invasion,” the New York Times reports.
“The latest arms package, which officials say includes Javelin antitank missiles and Stinger antiaircraft missiles, follows a $350 million arms package the Biden administration approved last month.”
Tbe Washington Post adds: “The Biden administration, under pressure to expand the arsenal of weapons that Ukraine has in its conflict with Russia, is working with European allies to expedite more sophisticated air-defense systems and other armaments into the war zone.”
“Discussions were ongoing ahead of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s planned trip [this] week to meet with NATO allies in Brussels and Slovakia, which along with Poland and Romania has indicated a willingness to transfer military aid to its embattled neighbor. Slovakia also possesses the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which is used to shoot down enemy aircraft and is familiar to the Ukrainians.”
We are one errant Russian missile strike on NATO territory away from entering this war. The Guardian reports, “Russia targets Ukrainian military base near Polish border in escalation”, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/13/russia-widens-attacks-on-ukraine-with-missile-strike-on-base-close-to-polish-border
The airstrikes [the Yavoriv International Centre for Peacekeeping and Security] in Yavorivin in the far-west of Ukraine came hours after the Kremlin, which said western military equipment destined for Ukrainian forces was being stored at the facility, had described western supply lines into Ukraine as “legitimate targets”.
A Russian military spokesperson claimed that up to 180 “foreign mercenaries and a large consignment of foreign weapons” were destroyed in the attack.
Russia drew warnings from Nato on Sunday after it escalated its war in Ukraine with strikes on a major military base close to the alliance’s border, killing at least 35 people and injuring 134 more.
Britain said the incident marked a “significant escalation” of the conflict and the proximity of the attack to Poland’s border, less than 10 miles away, prompted the US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to warn that any fire, even accidental, on a neighbouring Nato country would trigger a full-force Nato response.
The attack prompted the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to repeat his pleas for Nato to impose a no-fly zone, and he warned the alliance that it was at risk. “If you don’t close our sky, it is only a matter of time before Russian rockets fall on your territory, on Nato territory,” he said in a video address late last night.
-Zelenskiy is correct. Too many wars throughout history have begun by miscalculation or mistake.