After Senator Sinema announced on CNN on Dec. 9th saying she was ditching the Democratic party and registering as an Arizona Independent because “I’ve never fit neatly into any party box. I’ve never really tried. I don’t want to,” she added. “Removing myself from the partisan structure not only is it true to who I am and how I operate, but I also think it’ll provide a place of belonging for many folks across the state and the country, who also are tired of the partisanship.”
Since then, there have been numerous articles pros and cons of her leaving the Democratic Party but none that I read took into effect the all-important registration numbers of both Republicans and Democratic and Independents. The bottom line is not why she did it but how is she going to get Independents and Democrats to back her in sufficient numbers to get re-elected. With registered Republicans holding a 34.67% to Democrats’ 30.66% advantage and with Other 33.89% how will running as an Independent against a Republican and Democrat constitute a win for her?
Looking at vote totals for both Sinema and Kelly Senate races shows how close the Democratic wins were. And two of their wins were against the same candidate Martha McSally and one win with Blake Masters. Here’s what the vote totals for both Kelly and Sinema’s run for Senator say.
- Sinema 50.0% McSally 47.6% 2.40% difference
- Kelly 51.2% McSally 48.8% 2.40% difference
- Kelly 51.4% Masters 46.5% 4.90% difference
Sinema’s victory over McSally was at that time the closest U.S. Senate election in Arizona since Barry Goldwater‘s 49.5% win for re-election for his third and final term over Democratic Bill Schulz 48.4%.
Sinema may think that Independents will carry her over the finish line, but Voter Registration Statics tell a different story. With Independents (others) constituting 33.89% of registered voters and Republicans with 34.67%, and the fact that she only beat McSally by 2.40%,she seems to be relying on Republicans mking the same mistake again as the last election by nominating an extremist in the mold of a Finchem, Lake, or Masters. The GOP would almost certainly put up a strong and electable candidate for Senate, especially if Sinema runs presenting the possibility of a three-person race. This time Sinema will likely not be able to count on Independents voting for her, let alone any Democrats. Since Sinema only beat McSally by 2.40% in a three-person race it will be hard for her to even come close to that 2.40% win without the support of nearly all Democrats.
An article in the Hill describes the problem Democrats will have if she doesn’t run as a Democrat. Saying that Sinema’s decision to register as an Independent creates the prospect of a three-way general election race for her seat, which Republicans believe would give them a clear path to picking up the seat. Sinema is ditching the Democratic Party because she either figured she can’t win a primary (highly likely it is this one), or she feels she no longer needs the party’s money and infrastructure fto get re-elected.
If all this doesn’t make Sinema seem like a Diva, the story in the Daily Beast dated Dec. 22 this year will. The story is titled “The Incredible 37 Page Guide for Staffing Sen. Sinema.” The 37-page memo is intended as a guide for aides who set the schedule for and personally staff Sinema during her workdays in Washington and Arizona.
The leaked document is mostly just revealing Sinema’s exceptionally strong preferences about things like air travel: preferably not on Southwest Airlines, never booking her a seat near a bathroom, and never a middle seat, ect. Another section laid out in detail Sinema’s eating schedule: “Due to her very high level of activity, she is always hungry and needs to consume a lot of protein each day, it specifies that she has to eat between 12 and 12:30 p.m., 2 and 2:30 p.m., and 5 and 6:30 p.m. It states Sinema brings her lunch and snack to work, but that she cannot be scheduled beyond 6:30 p.m. without staff “ensuring she has dinner.” Sinema’s commitment to athletic pursuits also extended into regular office hours. The memo explains that Sinema must be scheduled for two 45-minute physical therapy sessions during the week, even specifying that her work calls could be scheduled during those appointments. She also expected to be booked for a weekly hour-long massage, even if it were in the middle of the legislative workday, according to a former Sinema aide who spoke to The Daily Beast and was granted anonymity to describe the workings of the senator’s office.
A different article from Democratic Underground relates polling results showing that Sinema is so unpopular that she might become a virtually irrelevant factor in the ’24 Senate contest. In a hypothetical three-way general election race with Lake and Gallego, Sinema comes in at an anemic 13 percent with Lake (at 41 percent) and Gallego (at 40 percent) in a dead heat. Perhaps more strikingly, Gallego (48 percent) and Lake (47 percent) would also be in a dead heat if Sinema didn’t run at all in the general election, demostrating that she is pretty much drawing equally among Democrats and Independents down in the single digits.
If these sorts of numbers persist in future polls, any greymail effort by Sinema to threaten to throw the Senate seat to the Republicans if Democrats don’t back her would not get any traction. Sinema’s real constituency is no longer in Arizona at all – it’s on Wall Street and K Street, whose deep pockets could help finance an independent reelection bid. It is, therefore, more likely the senior senator from Arizona will be looking for employment from her wealthy friends in New York and Washington, D.C., in January 2025 rather than preparing to serve a second term.
Come Nov. 2024 Sinema is looking at three possible outcomes, none of them good:
- run again in the Democratic Primary and be utterly humiliated by any one of several possible nominees;
- run as an Independent, hoping the Democrats won’t run a candidate (fat chance!), and if (and only if…) Democrats blink, have a fighting chance at re-election; or,
- run in a three-way race, and become an embarrassing afterthought in a distant 3rd place, and a possible spoiler for the GOP.
The best outcome for Sinema is #2, but it is a vain hope that Democrats will fold for her greymail threat. So, if Sinema insists on running for a re-elect in ’24, #3 is the nearly certain outcome for her, definitively ending her political career with an humiliating ::SPLAT!::
Sinema has no political future in Arizona. She should RESIGN now and get out of the way of real public servants. Look for her to wind up on the deck of an investment banker’s yacht sipping a drink in a bikini.
If Lady Kyrsten thinks she can win an election in Arizona then she has underestimated the wrath of the electorate.
Wake up, Kyrsten, the voters that you betrayed hate your guts. They won’t vote for you again.
Sinema’s donors with all the money, the ones who bought her vote, might bankroll TV ads that hawk her “accomplishments” but they can’t make people stop hating her. Voters have very long memories which is why political comebacks are so rare.
If Sinema were smart she would walk away with however many millions of dollars she can stockpile in the remainder of her term. But she might actually think she can win given how out of touch she is with the constituents.
Another possibility is she might intentionally throw the election to benefit the GOP because that’s who she’s been representing.
As for her future, who cares? I hate to see a bad faith actor rewarded, but apparently she hasn’t done anything illegal.
Nothing for the Democrats to do but move on and think of Kyrsten Sinema as a lesson learned, or should be.
More importantly, to think of her as a Republican In All But Name… a RIABN? Nah, DINO is better, but she’s no longer a Democrat… Posing As Independent But Is Republican? PAIBIS? Not very word-like… Supposedly Indedpendent Really Only Selfish? SIROS? Not easily made into an editorial cartoon… Just Another Greedy Asshole… JAGA? Getting close… Just Another Greedhead Out For Funds… JAGOFF! Yep. That’ll do. I can see the editorial cartoons now… and they are somewhat racy :O
“Sinema’s real constituency is no longer in Arizona at all – it’s on Wall Street and K Street…”
It always has been. In congress she always voted for banks and crooks. We all said this for years.
It’s why I never voted for her until it was about TFG in one election, and my shame for that vote is boundless.
Now she’s no longer required to raise money for Dems. Raising money for your party is half the job, and she can raise money for herself and keep it all, then take the job on Wall Street, where someone from HR will no doubt give her some discreet advice on dressing for the office.
When you wonder about her motives stop. It’s always about money.
She’s enriching herself at the expense of Americans.
I’m not going to say “told you so”, that would be tacky.
Nope, I’m going out and across the street, climb to the top of South Mountain, and scream it from there.
BTW, as Wileybud often reminds us, she was Schumer’s pick, and he represents….Wall Street.
“It’s why I never voted for her until it was about TFG in one election, and my shame for that vote is boundless.”
Nothing to be ashamed of Sharpie. My primary vote went for Deedra Abboud and when Chuck’s pick prevailed there was really no other option. As terrible as Chuck’s pick has been, for what it’s worth at least we got a Senate majority. Very marginally better than Martha McSally.
I’m re-posting this comment as it seems relevant:
“I’m reminded of the conclusion of Fargo’s Season Two. On behalf of his corporate crime organization bosses Mike Milligan (played by Bokeem Woodbine) is finishing eliminating the last of the local crime family (violence alert):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2H7T2tggXU
And reaps his corporate reward:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2H7T2tggXU
May her corporate reward for murdering the Biden agenda be the same.
Many words can be used to describe her, but “dumb” isn’t one of them (not at all). My guess is that she realizes that she most likely toast in any kind of a contested election (though she might work to give the seat to an R) and has already lined up her next gig as a lobbyist.
Thank you for the interesting analysis.