Who Will Replace McCain?

Now that our McCain is the acknowledged front-runner and almost certain nominee of the Republican Party for President, what will happen to his Senate seat?

If McCain follows the example of others in the race, such as Obama and Clinton, and nominees of the recent past, such as Kerry and Lieberman, nothing will happen to his seat unless he’s elected President. Should he resign in order to signal his intent to win, or to mute criticism of his neglect of his Senatorial duties while on the campaign trail, however, then there may be a more immediate effect on his Arizona Senate seat.

The mechanism for replacement of a Senator in Arizona is for the Governor to issue a writ of election to authorize a special election to replace the Senator, and to appoint a member of the former Senator’s party to serve in an interim capacity until the special election is held on a date determined by the Arizona legislature.

Thus, the question is three-fold: who might the Governor appoint to the interim term, who would likely run in a special election, and, keeping in mind the compressed electioneering period a special election often entails, who might win such a race?

I don’t have any pat answers, so I am asking for your ideas and advice on this one – especially that of my friends on the red end of the spectrum.

I don’t think McCain is likely to resign his Senate seat, but he’s a surprising old bird – one never quite knows what he’s up to. I don’t think he’ll win the Presidency, either, but if he were to do so, then his seat goes up for grabs via interim appointment and special election in November 2008 at the earliest, January 2009 at the latest. If he were to resign for the campaign, it could all begin tomorrow.

The first question is who would Napolitano appoint to an interim term? I don’t think she’s timid enough to just roll over and appoint some presumptive Republican pretender, giving a Republican a clear advantage in the special election. More likely, it seems to me, she would appoint a Republican she is close to, and wants to see get more of a political profile, but not someone who is established enough to seek the Senate seat for his or herself.

One person who comes to mind as fitting that bill is Kris Mayes. The big draw-back of appointing someone like Mayes, is what she might do with the profile an interim U.S. Senate seat would give her. There has been rumblings about her challenging for the CD 1 Congressional nomination, so her appointment might backfire by creating a strong Republican challenger where there is currently little real energy, and possibly handing CD 1 to the GOP.

A second option is an appointment that, while no one could question the legitimacy and appropriateness of the appointment, the GOP would likely come to rue it none-the-less. An inspired move, in my opinion, would be for the Governor to appoint state GOP Chairman Randy Pullen. It’s an inspired move in my view: you get to bring Pullen’s trademark nuttiness to a national audience, embarrassing the national party (who hates Pullen’s guts so much they’ve choked off the state party’s funding), and likely setting off another internecine struggle between the alienated factions of the AZ GOP.

Either way, the Governor has lots of latitude to really cause some mischief with the appointment or to help a moderate Republican she favors. The possible interim appointees are a good source of speculation, and I encourge you to share your thoughts, especially the naughty ones.

Who might run in a special election to replace McCain? One obvious Democratic contender is Jim Pederson, who tried to bring down Senator Jon Kyl last cycle. He’s got the name recognition, experience, and, most importantly in a short campaign, the money to bring off a credible short-notice compressed campaign. Other notable Democrats with a state-wide profile without other pressing engagements in 2009 are rather sparse on the ground.

The most chilling prospect is if Janet Napolitano herself decides to put her hat in the ring. She would, of course, likely have to resign to run (she would have a hard time taking a play from Tim Bee’s book "How to be a Schrödinger’s Candidate" as her term expires all the way out in 2010) so that would mean SoS Jan Brewer would become our Governor. Perish the thought.

Surely, we have a deeper bench than this? Isn’t there an Obama cooling his heels in the State legislature just waiting to burst upon the national stage? There are many who have the potential for a greater leadership role in the state, but none with the sort of burning ambition and talent it would take to prevail in the hyper-compressed schedule of a special election. Even Obama might not have broken out in such circumstances. I like my State Rep., Steve Farley; I think he would make a fine U.S. Senator, but I don’t see him raising the millions a U.S. Senate campaign would require. Who do you see as a possible break-out contender?

On the Republican side, there are a number of pretenders waiting in the wings, if only because they’ve lost more state-wide races lately. Matt Salmon seems like a possible contender, having both the connections and name-recognition to gear up quickly for a state-wide special election. Despite having about zero chance of prevailing, Len Munsil and Don Goldwater would likely have to make some noises about running, if only to save face.

An intriguing possible contender would be J.D. Hayworth, who might be interested in trying to erase the stain of his loss to Harry Mitchell with a stretch at the big brass ring. And who knows? Maybe he’d be more palatable to a state-wide constituency that he was to the increasingly moderate voters of CD 5.

In the "slightly batty possibilities" category is disgraced former Governor Fife Symington who keeps threatening to put down his pastry bag long enough to run for something again. In the "certainly not lacking self-importance despite all evidence to the contrary" category is Arizona Speaker of the House Jim Weiers. Despite his tenuous hold on power, not to mention his own House seat, he might get a signal from god that he’s to be the next Senator from Arizona.

Of course, the best is saved for last. What if Senate President Tim Bee decides that he has a better shot at retaining a Republican Senate seat than displacing Gabby Giffords’ hold on a now-Democratic House seat? Would he abandon his bid against Gabby to go for a seat in the 100 Club? Better yet, since he seems to have so much time on his hands to run the Senate, and run for Congress, why couldn’t he just ALSO run for U.S. Senate in the special election should McCain resign soon? That way, he can have his cake, eat it too, and still have seconds.

Who else, on either side of the aisle, do you think might decide to take a run at the Senate if McCain were to resign, or win the Presidency?