Why Did So Many Democrats Vote for Brown?

By Michael Bryan

Why would Democrats who voted for Obama turn around and vote for a moderate Republican like Brown? I think a post-election poll from Moveon.org does a convincing job of answering the question:

The plurality of Democrats who cast votes for Brown, or who simply stayed home, were prompted to do so by opposition to the health care bills in Congress. But most of those Democratic voters opposed the bill because it became too incremental in hopes of attracting Republican support, not because they think the reforms are too radical. 

Given that Brown says he plans to oppose the Congressional plan, it seems a counter-intuitive choice for any Democrat to vote for him. But Brown thinks the current plan, which is very much like his State's own plan, is actually good policy and articulated that position often on the stump. He says he'll oppose it because it raises taxes and "may hurt Medicare". Those are concerns most people can relate to, even if they support reform. I don't believe that healthcare reforms was, in any case, the main factor in that race.

It's the economy, stupid.

The cross-tabs show the effect of economic frustration even more convincingly. The economy out-stripped every other issue among Democratic voters who voted for Brown by at least 2 to 1. Healthcare came in third after the deficit.

Brown's election is truly a self-inflicted wound. Democrats changed the rules to impose an election rather than a selection by the Governor, then nominated a weak and unappealing campaigner. Democrats have also taken the political hit in national sentiment for following through on a deeply unpopular economic policy that just might have saved the world from another great depression: that's the problem with disasters avoided through difficult choices; voters don't experience the disaster, just the difficult choices. 

Perceptions that the towering heights of the economy have been rescued while the trenches remain mired in misery is exacting a political price. Democrats clearly have to do more to deal with wage stagnation, middle class economic insecurity, and the tremendous loss of jobs that are the Bush legacy. 

There is no doubt that Brown's election is a harbinger, but not of the correctness of GOP opposition to healthcare reform, or really any GOP policies at all, and they treat it as such at their peril. Brown is no tea bagger, he's a younger Mitt Romney.

Democrats are certainly getting push-back from voters on healthcare, both in the base and among new voters attracted into the electorate by Obama, you betcha. But it's because the Congress has been too timid and incremental in its approach to reform, not because voters fear the proposed reforms go too far. The Moveon poll clearly demonstrates that, at least among Democrats, the dissatisfaction is with too much status quo, not too much change we can believe in.

Here in Arizona, GOP Congressional campaigns for the seats Democrats have captured over the past two cycles are ramping up, and almost without exception, strong opposition to healthcare reform is a major contrast point with the incumbent. This is going to backfire wonderfully. The more GOP candidates harp on their opposition to healthcare reform and criticize Democratic incumbents for their support of it, the better it is for Democrats in November. Democrats should seek to have that debate on healthcare at every opportunity.

The political environment is likely to get even more favorable for Democrats on healthcare when a final version passes out of Congress. Up until now, the Republicans have had a free pass at scare-mongering because their was no final bill for the media to actually explain to the public. As the policy firms up the GOP's ability to invent boogeymen will decline and public understanding of the reforms will increase. Voters may still be upset that they are getting the crumbs of reform rather than the whole pie, but perhaps they will also begin to recognize who they should actually blame for that.

If GOP candidates had any sense they would use Bill Clinton's playbook and talk solely about kitchen table economic issues. However, the GOP has never been strong on populist economic appeals. I expect them to grind on about lowering taxes as a stimulus to growth and providing incentives to corporations to create new jobs. Those nostrums are as likely to get traction in this environment as defending TARP bailouts and fat Wall Street bonuses.

If Democrats have any sense they will use the Brown anomaly as a warning to galvanize vulnerable Democrats to settle their differences and set to work on an ambitious and fast-acting jobs program, and work to link healthcare reform to economic recovery in the public's mind.