Why did we lose?

As election results are being certified, pundits everywhere are providing their diagnosis of Democratic losses: the party was too progressive; the party wasn’t progressive enough; candidates depended on abortion too much (or too little); candidates’ arguments on immigration were too weak; or their responses on the border actually reinforced an overamped image of immigrant hordes taking jobs and killing us (simultaneously). I’ve even read arguments that the election was hacked, and that Trump won by fraud, to which I thought, “man, I thought we’d had enough of that from the other side.”

I’m not a pundit; I’m just an Arizona Democratic volunteer who tries to help candidates that I think are doing their best to help us all. But I’ve always liked Occam’s Razor, which tells us that if there are multiple models to explain something, we should prefer the simplest. I’d only add this: once we choose that simple model, we need to be open to modest additions to improve it.

So, here’s a “first order” (Occam’s Razor) model for what happened: the economic turmoil following the pandemic (surge in demand while supply chains were disrupted) led to what Jonathan Swan et al referred to as the “sour mood” of the electorate. Voters weren’t happy, so they generally voted to “throw the bums out” at the top level of the ballot. This happened for governments all over the world, whether they were liberal or conservative.

OK, I know it’s not that simple

Below the Presidential level, and for Arizona in particular, of course it gets more complicated. But the shift away from the incumbent party was felt all the way down the ballot, with few exceptions.

I understand that attributing the Democratic losses to a broad economic cause is equivalent to “stuff happens” (or something other than “stuff” that I can’t say in a family newspaper). So, do I think that there is nothing to be done (to improve Democrats’ chances here) other than to wait for more favorable conditions? No.

While these broad effects are critical, political campaigns can certainly be improved. While we bemoan how long they go on (apparently the 2026 Governor’s race has already started), it is true that community-building needs to be a permanent function of anyone who wants to have impact. If Democratic priorities are policies that improve people’s lives, the community needs to feel them long before any election. 

And for those who feel that they simply can’t face the trials ahead, this video has a helpful suggestion.