As election results are being certified, pundits everywhere are providing their diagnosis of Democratic losses: the party was too progressive; the party wasn’t progressive enough; candidates depended on abortion too much (or too little); candidates’ arguments on immigration were too weak; or their responses on the border actually reinforced an overamped image of immigrant hordes taking jobs and killing us (simultaneously). I’ve even read arguments that the election was hacked, and that Trump won by fraud, to which I thought, “man, I thought we’d had enough of that from the other side.”
I’m not a pundit; I’m just an Arizona Democratic volunteer who tries to help candidates that I think are doing their best to help us all. But I’ve always liked Occam’s Razor, which tells us that if there are multiple models to explain something, we should prefer the simplest. I’d only add this: once we choose that simple model, we need to be open to modest additions to improve it.
So, here’s a “first order” (Occam’s Razor) model for what happened: the economic turmoil following the pandemic (surge in demand while supply chains were disrupted) led to what Jonathan Swan et al referred to as the “sour mood” of the electorate. Voters weren’t happy, so they generally voted to “throw the bums out” at the top level of the ballot. This happened for governments all over the world, whether they were liberal or conservative.
OK, I know it’s not that simple
Below the Presidential level, and for Arizona in particular, of course it gets more complicated. But the shift away from the incumbent party was felt all the way down the ballot, with few exceptions.
I understand that attributing the Democratic losses to a broad economic cause is equivalent to “stuff happens” (or something other than “stuff” that I can’t say in a family newspaper). So, do I think that there is nothing to be done (to improve Democrats’ chances here) other than to wait for more favorable conditions? No.
While these broad effects are critical, political campaigns can certainly be improved. While we bemoan how long they go on (apparently the 2026 Governor’s race has already started), it is true that community-building needs to be a permanent function of anyone who wants to have impact. If Democratic priorities are policies that improve people’s lives, the community needs to feel them long before any election.
And for those who feel that they simply can’t face the trials ahead, this video has a helpful suggestion.
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I’m a lifelong Democrat going as far back as voting for George McGovern in 1972.
The number one reason the Democrats lost is the party leadership allowed Joe Biden to run for a second term. By the time they understood that he couldn’t win and finally forced him out, there was no time to do anything except move Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket. We can speculate as to why she lost, racism, sexism, misogyny, failure to distinguish herself from Biden, too progressive, whatever.
Maybe Democrats will someday learn to let the voters choose the candidate. Remember Barack Obama?
Anyhow, back to me. I voted for Kamala Harris and prayed she would win. I would have voted for Joe Biden and prayed for forgiveness. Why? Gaza.
Biden sent 17.9 billion in military aid to Israel in the past year enabling Netanyahu’s horrific war that now has a death toll of 45K Palestinians. Biden also begged for humanitarian aid and a ceasefire apparently unaware that the hypocrisy would be noticed.
In my humble opinion, Biden deserved to lose because of Gaza. And it’s actually a moot point because he was too old and in no condition to be seeking a second term.
So blather on Democrats about the working class and meeting voters where they are and whatever else you’ve got that circumvents the real problem.
It’s your candidates. Let the voters decide next time and see if you do better. Why did so many Democratic voters stay home in 2024? The election was yours to lose, and you did.
I do not think that Harris‘s problem was not having enough time to campaign because of Biden. If you look at the polls, the more people were exposed to Harris the lower her poll numbers went. She was a terrible campaigner who tried to hide her left wing views, and the voters saw that.
Well, if you’re looking for the root cause, Joe Biden’s big fat ego lost the election for the Democrats. Biden was a go-along-get-along unremarkable career politician who copped a break when the Obamas picked him for VP. He had a good run with Obama. He stepped aside in 2016 so Hillary it’s-my-turn Clinton could win the Democratic presidential nomination. He copped another break in 2020 when Rep Clyburn handed him South Carolina, Biden’s first win in the primaries, and the Democrats fell in line behind him as most of the competition quit. It’s worth noting that Kamala Harris had already quit because she had no support.
So Biden wins and passed some good legislation even though the most progressive parts of his agenda were stopped in the Senate by traitors Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin. Never forget those two.
Age alone was reason enough for Joe to pass the torch and allow the voters to choose a candidate for 2024. But his ego got in the way, and he couldn’t let go of the power. So he holds on until he had to be forced out and it is too late for the voters to choose.
Biden’s favorability consistently polled low for years, he was in his 80s, he was not sharp as a tack, and then there’s Gaza.
But he saw only greatness.
Kamala Harris was not chosen by the voters and that alone may go a long way toward explaining her loss. She may have been perceived as an extension of Biden and lacking authenticity.
As long as you’re blaming Biden don’t forget to include James Clyburn who single handedly resurrected Biden’s (at the time) failing campaign.
I did mention Rep. Clyburn handing SC to Joe in 2020.
I might add that it was also Rep. Clyburn who thought that a black woman VP was good payback. I guess he was a helluva lot more optimistic than I was that sexism, misogyny, and racism could be overcome it the black woman ran for president.
It was more than handing over SC, Clyburn’s endorsement galvanized nationwide support for Biden.
Trump will impose very few tariffs. Trump is a shrewd negotiator and tariffs are a bargaining chip that he will use to get concessions from our foreign competitor countries.
Sure. Keep saying that John and you may eventually believe it. Take care.
Like Trump is a facsist who will never win?
Trump is a Fascist/White Nationalist/Authoritarian who should not have won.
Most shrewd negotiators I know don’t have a long string of bankrupt casino’s and businesses on their resume. LOL.
Kavanagh must have gotten his degree from Trump University. 🙂
The ghost writer he hired for “The Art of the Deal” loves to tell the story of how he charged Don-old twice the going rate to do the work, and Don-old never blinked.
What Don-old is doing with tariff’s is what he did during his first term. Using them to extract money/favors from American businesses to enrich himself.
He made over 5 million in his first term from China alone. As a lame duck this time he won’t even need to pretend he’s not a crook.
His tariff’s will have many, many carveouts for anyone telling him how he’s even smarter than he is good looking and oh by the way we put a few million in the Mar a Lago tip jar….
It’s very concerning that this government check loving Kavanagh blog troll is unaware of how the real world actually works.
If you can’t spot the con-artist, Johnny, you’re the mark.
I’m sure in a couple of years when Don-old’s policies results come in, Mr. Doctor Senator John Government Checks Kavanagh will be here, hat in hand, admitting how wrong he was.
I’m sure of it. Totally.
I don’t know about that, John. It’s looking like Donald will spend his working hours plotting revenge for his many enemies while Elon Musk runs the Executive Branch (into the ground). Or maybe all EM cares about are his government contracts. We’ll see.
That’s correct. It wasn’t your wild spending that fueled inflation, your disastrous open border policy, your senile candidate that you dumped as a candidate but kept as our president, your wacky transgender policies, your weak foreign policy, or your candidate of change who, when asked, could not disagree with any of Biden’s policies . No. It was things not related to you or within your control.
So please continue along your current path.
John, like Mr. Trump, you are highly skilled in transmitting misinformation talking points. We on the other hand are highly skilled in continually pointing out your errors. Before I forget, would you be receptive to proposing legislation that mandates children study current events reported by credible news organizations in schools? Please advise and take care. Have a nice Thanksgiving.
That should be integrated into appropriate classes except for a general course in critical thinking. But I would expose students to a wide array of news sources, even off the wall ones, such as BfA.
I
The problem is defining credible. About the only unbiased national news source I can think of is the Wall Street Journal. Can you tell me which ones you believe to be credible?
WSJ unbiased? Not hardly – it’s still owned by the Murdochs.
It may have once been a source of credible journalism, but now it’s just a print version of Fox News.
That should be integrated into appropriate classes except for a general course in critical thinking. But I would expose students to a wide array of news sources, even off the wall ones, such as BfA.
I
The problem is defining credible. About the only unbiased national news source I can think of is the Wall Street Journal. Can you tell me which ones you believe to be credible?
NPR, Reuters, and Associated Press.
I do not believe that I have ever heard any conservative program on NPR. No balance there.
I have a better idea. Have them read the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. I read both.
NPR is not conservative or liberal. It is objective.That you can not find support for some of your party’s goals there should tell you something.
I think I was trying to say that the first order phenomenon I was pointing to, which was worldwide, was important but not the only factor leading to the losses on “our” side. I was trying not to get into the debate about other factors. I’d probably disagree with you on at least some of them, but that was not the point of the article.
Fair enough
Hey lil’ Johnny, instead of spending your time trolling the internet like some 300 pound mom’s basement dwelling incel, maybe you should be fixing the huge state deficit you created with your taxpayer funded giveaway to rich people, aka school vouchers.
With all due respect, and I do mean all of it, maybe we’ll look to others for advice on money stuff, Johnny, your policies are the usual GQP scams.
I wish Arizona had more serious minded politicians instead of these chemtrail flat earth weirdos.
BTW, John Who Dines on the Taxpayer Dime, you keep bringing up trans policies. What is your plan for trans men using their biological bathroom?
And are gonna’ do the crotch canvassing yourself?
I know, as usual, you haven’t thought things through.
Nelson – Here’s my take. Upbeat comments. Some overlap.
“Please don’t agonize over every new development. You will only ruin yourself and your state of mind.
“Know in advance it’s going to be bad and prepare yourself accordingly.
This dark drama has to play itself out. There was never any way around it regardless of our hopes and fears. The forces at play have morphed and raged into an inevitable outcome.
“It is all coming to a head, and that is good news (of a sort) for the sooner and bolder it starts, the sooner It will burn itself out in the flames of its own scurrilousness. We will need to bear this assault on our senses and human decency without despair or hopelessness, while holding close our tender selves and each other.
“The end is inherent in the beginning and the beginning has already begun. There are far greater and more beneficent powers at play in this dear world than we can possibly imagine.
“Have faith in spite of everything. Stay firm, protect yourself and others and never forget your North Star: truth and courage and decency and love. “— Anne Sweet
= = = =
“When a complex system is far from equilibrium, small islands of coherence in a sea of chaos have the capacity to shift the entire system to a higher order.” Illya Prigogini, Nobel-Prize winning chemist.
= = =
As best as I recall reading: A rural Penn. factory owner called a meeting of his Trump-ite workers some two days after the election and said there would be no Xmas bonus. He needed the money to immediately order to build up foreign raw material essential for production and remain competitive before the tariffs went up. The workers asked how could this be when Trump assured foreign companies, not Americans, would pay for the increase. The owner, in effect, said, Trump lied. Consider if buyers’ remorse will significantly set in not later than the end of 2025.
A shift of 288,000 votes in close state returns and Harris would have won. Consider, vote-wise not candidates-elected-wise, the MAGA landslide is a Red Myth, not Red Wave. Consider if this shift-able, critically important winning-determining small chunk of throw-the-bums-out voters with blatant short-sighted misperceptions*** could shift and result in a ’26 small Blue Wave throwing out the true-bums.
***Not voting for Harris because Biden didn’t cut arms to Israel when Trump announced his policy is to support whatever anti-Palestinian, etc., policy Netanyahu wants. Voting for Trump because Biden inflation was BAD — now low for months beginning with dropping gasoline prices, expecting Trump to reduce high grocery prices when he’s for raising tariffs, making no war on supermarket, etc., monopolies, raising debt as before by renewing/increasing tax cuts for the rich…
Senate R’s 3, Trump 0. They turned down Trump’s Scott as majority leader and Gaetz as AJ, and ignore his request to show up and make it harder to stop approval of Biden’s fed judge nominees. Consider placing the Senate R’s arrow in the Dem’s quiver and taking the victories that come, but just not bet your house on the reliability of that arrow.
Consider decapitalizing the G in “Gloom and Doom,” reaching out to Community, donating to the ACLU or other progressive/competent law entities, and selectively choosing your battles and news sources. Consider if it’s too early to decapitalize the D.
Tom