Will 2026 Finally Be the Year Arizona Democrats Capture Control of the State Legislature

Arizona Democrats thought it would happen in 2020. 

They thought that it could happen in 2022 and 2024.

Will 2026 finally be the year when Arizona Democrats finally grab control of both houses of the State Legislature for the first time in half a century?

Scott McNeil, the new Executive Director of the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, thinks so.

With strong candidates up and down the ballot and messaging that will mainly focus on the issue of affordability and investing in public education, McNeil feels now, thanks to a Republican brand that is rotting more and more with each passing day, now is the time when all the political stars should be aligned for Democrats to finally go over the top and become the majority party in both the State House and Senate. 

Mr. McNeil graciously took the time to interview with Blog for Arizona to discuss the Democrats’ 2026 quest to take control of the State Legislature in 2027. 

The questions and his responses are below. 

What are the names of the legislative districts the ADLCC has targeted as battleground seats headed to the 2026 elections?

“We have a core group of districts that we are targeting, and these are based on essentially how competitive they are in terms of their Democratic to Republican numbers based on previous statewide races in those districts, as well as the legislative campaigns themselves. It’s very similar to the districts we played in 2022 and 2024, because we want to ensure that, with our resources, we are putting in as much as we can in the most competitive seats to make the biggest difference.”

“The districts are in LD Two, which is North Phoenix; LD Four which is in North Phoenix, Scottsdale, and Paradise Valley; LD Nine, which is Mesa;  LD 13, which is Chandler and Gilbert, LD 16, which essentially goes from Pinal County down to outskirts of Tucson;  LD 17, which is the Tucson suburbs of Marana and Oro Valley;  and then LD 23, which is South Tucson up to Goodyear back down to Yuma in a very rural and Latino heavy district. So those are the core seven districts that we’re following and that we expect to play in.”

To what extent has candidate recruitment for those battleground seats fulfilled expectations? Please explain.

“When we’re recruiting candidates, we’re really looking for three big things. Do they have the connections and relationships in their community so that you know, one day they announce that they’re planning to run. They already have that relationship with voters in their district. The second thing is, do they have the capacity to raise money? Arizona is a swing state. Even though we won’t have a major Presidential and Senate race this year, we still have competitive Statewide, Congressional, and a top-tier Gubernatorial race. They’ll bring in a lot of money, so having the capacity to raise money to break through that noise is really important. The third thing is, are they willing to work hard? Are they willing to knock on doors in 120-degree heat? Are they willing to knock doors from January to election day because the one advantage a legislative candidate has that a Statewide candidate or Congressional candidate does not have is the ability to talk to a swing voter face-to-face and ask for their vote and answer their questions directly. So those are the three things we’re looking for.”

“We’re excited about the candidates that we have recruited. For example, Raquel Rockee Armstrong in LD 13 for the State House, is a candidate we’re excited about. Aaron Lieberman in LD Four for the State Senate is another one. We’re excited with some of the candidates.”

“Some of the challenges that we face are that this is a job that takes up four to five months of some four and a half to five and a half months of somebody’s life for $24,000 a year, and that doesn’t include what’s done during the interim between the legislative sessions. So, it’s a big ask for a tough job with not a lot of pay, but at the same time, once we saw what happened in Virginia and New Jersey earlier this year, I think people are starting to believe that this is going to be a good year for Democrats, and I think the thing is, if not now, when. Timing is very important in politics, and people want to take advantage of the blowback from the Trump Administration and Republicans, nationwide.”

Are there any other candidates you would like to cite besides Dr. Armstrong and Mr. Lieberman?

“We also have a good defense. A good offense comes from a good defense, and we have strong candidates running as incumbents as well. Kevin Volk in LD 17 puts a Republican leaning district on the board for us, and he’s a strong candidate. Stephanie Simacek in LD Two and Lorena Austin in LD Nine. These are really strong incumbents, and we see at all levels, whether via the U.S Senate, Congress, Governor, all the way down to the State Legislature, a good defense is a good offense, and having those strong incumbents with ties to their community, proven winners in their districts, allows us to be more aggressive with the map.”

Going into 2026, what are at least three issues LD Democrats will run on? Please explain.

“Affordability, affordability, affordability, and to elaborate on that, Donald Trump won in 2024 because he promised he was going to make the cost of living cheaper. He was going to make housing cheaper. He was going to make groceries cheaper. He said he was going to do it on day one. Instead, we have seen him get distracted by the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of America. He’s clearly slept through Econ 101, where his tariffs have made the cost of living more expensive. We are focused on making costs cheaper and more affordable for Arizonans and laser-focused on that. That includes lowering the cost of utilities, working to lower the cost of groceries, and working to cut taxes for middle-class individuals and families. We will also try to reduce housing bills and rent. We are going to be laser-focused on those, and it’s also important to recruit those candidates who can speak authentically and with energy, dealing with those things themselves, because we want to have a legislature that represents Arizonans and the issues and challenges that they face daily.”

What about speaking to the people’s aspirations or dreams to get ahead? 

“We believe strongly during this campaign in promoting the American Dream, which is when you have when you play by the rules, when you work hard, play by the rules, you should get ahead, And that involves, talking about our ideas to invest and improve our education system, making it easier to buy a home, and acquire that generational wealth, making sure that people have good paying jobs available to folks throughout Arizona. We want to talk about folks’ immediate needs, but also their long-term aspirations, too.”

Please describe how the ADLCC will improve its messaging and outreach efforts to turn out the vote for these down-ballot contests. Please explain. 

“The most important thing that we are doing right now is candidate recruitment. We can have the best message humanly possible. We could have it poll-tested, focus-grouped, put it through all the data and all the science, and create the perfect message. I think this is an issue that you know, the Democratic Party has learned. We don’t necessarily have a message problem. We have a messenger problem. We cannot have good messages unless we have good messengers, and that comes down to candidate recruitment. Having those candidates who can speak authentically to that and who can relate and have ties and trust in their districts and in their communities. I think that’s one thing is really emphasizing the importance of candidate recruitment and the messengers who are doing the outreach for these down-ballot contests. At the end of the day, a lot of these races can get swamped by national races, statewide races, and having those candidates who can break through is really important, and that’s one way, I think we’re improving our messaging.”

“I think the other thing is we’re listening to voters. We’re listening to people, and we’re hearing them. We’ve invested in research and polling and focus groups to really hear what they’re saying. And, like, we have heard loud and clear. The biggest issue that they care about is the immediate cost of living and affordability needs. A family of four spending a thousand dollars a month on groceries is not sustainable. It’s not just messaging, but it’s also listening, and I think over the past 11 months, Legislative Democrats have done a good job with listening. In the House, for example, they have traveled across the state meeting with folks, community members, and local groups to hear what’s happening on the ground, and that is absolutely informing what our messaging is going to be for the election.”

Is there anything not covered in the first four questions that you would like the readers to know about the ADLCC efforts in 2026? Please explain.

“Right now, ADLCC is laser-focused on getting 16 in the Senate and 31 in the House. We have a great governor with Governor Hobbs who has done a lot of stuff in terms of working to make Arizona a place that folks can live and work and raise a family, but she’s been stymied by a Republican legislature. She has to play a lot of defense and has to veto a lot of damaging bills in a lot of damaging legislation. That’s holding the state back. 

We need a Democratic majority in the House and the Senate to work with a newly re-elected Governor Hobbs to do a lot of things that are going to move the state forward. That’s going to invest in education. That’s going to invest in good quality jobs. That’s going to lower the costs of living and invest in housing and invest in those things that can help Arizona get ahead. There’s a lot of attention on the top of the ticket, but the down-ballot races are where it really happens. We’ve got a Republican legislature that’s holding us back. ADLCC has hired staff to work with our candidates to help fund their campaigns, develop messaging, and do media outreach because I think, we’ve got a lot of voters who aren’t paying as much attention to this as we are. I think Democrats have learned the hard way that we haven’t done a good job reaching out to voters. We have done a good job reaching out to those who attend meetings and protests and are actively engaged. But for those folks who are just busy with their lives, we have not done as good a job with them, and we are putting in the resources in terms of staff support and media to make sure that we do outreach to them. That we are messaging them, and that we are persuading them. Those votes are gettable, but we need to re-earn their trust, and that takes time, and that involves recruiting kid candidates who have that trust, and that takes resources.”

For those who want to support our efforts, please go to adlcc.com and please chip in a few bucks. $5, $10, and $ 25 can go a long way and help us flip the Arizona State Legislature.