Will the GOP’s ‘new math’ lead to a brokered convention?

Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Something new I learned while researching the GOP primary rules: the GOP has adopted "new math" for the 2012 primary election which could result in a brokered GOP convention for the first time in decades. Howard Megdal writing at Salon explains, The GOP needs a brokered convention:

[A]ll of the polls and pronouncements have overlooked the most popular choice for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination: no one. As Republicans make their way toward their quadrennial meeting in Tampa, Fla., which opens on Aug. 27, 2012, the lack of consensus may be building toward a historical surprise: a brokered convention.

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[A] combination of the lack of strength within the current field, the inclinations of current GOP primary voters, the recently changed 2012 GOP rules, and even the best interests of the party itself all point to a strong possibility that there will be no presumptive nominee ahead of the convention.

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Romney remains stuck at about 25 percent in the polls, meaning three out of four Republicans reject him. With six weeks to go, Romney is running out of time to convince the voters to fall for him, and not for lack of trying.

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Less noticed, but no less important, is the new GOP voting system, which is set up for early primary and caucus states to vote first, followed by all other proportionally allocated delegate states next. From April 1 on, the winner-take-all primary and caucus states will vote. That means a weak front-runner can earn victories in early states without taking a commanding share of that state’s delegates, while several challengers can lose, but still rack up a decent delegate total.

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For the very earliest states, this was true in 2008 too. The early primaries and caucuses allocated delegates proportionally, so winning them meant less in terms of amassing convention delegates, and more in terms of building a sense of momentum for the next round of voting in states that were nearly all winner-take-all. For example, McCain’s 5-point win over Romney in New Hampshire on Jan. 8, 2008, yielded only a 7-4 delegate edge. But his victories later that month in South Carolina by 3 points and Florida by 5 points captured 75 of the two states’ combined 81 delegates.

No such mechanism exists for any candidate in the 2012 race. Thanks to the new GOP rule, any primary or caucus held before April 1 must allocate delegates proportionally. So when McCain won nine of 21 states on Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), with more than 50 percent of the vote in just three of them, the winner-take-all system gave him 608 of the 1,081 delegates at stake on the day. That meant total delegate haul — more than 56 percent of those available — was greater than his share of the vote in any single state that day. It also meant he received more than 57 percent of the delegates he’d need to be nominated in a single day. The result? Mitt Romney quickly called it quits, while Mike Huckabee continued on, but without any real attacks on McCain. The GOP race was over on Feb. 5.

This year will be different. The first winner-take-all primaries are Maryland, Wisconsin and Washington, D.C., on April 3. That means 1,163 of 2,380 delegates will be selected before a single winner-take-all primary is held.

The mathematical implications are stark. Take Missouri, for example, which votes on March 17, 2012, meaning its delegate will be allocated proportionally.  Back in 2008, Missouri was winner-take-all. On the GOP side, John McCain edged Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney in a tight three-way contest, 33 percent to 32 percent to 29 percent. Despite the narrow win, McCain took all 58 of Missouri’s delegates.

Fast forward to 2012. If Mitt Romney performs as well in Missouri as McCain did in 2008, a big if, he would gain fewer than 20 delegates from the state. More to the point, the candidates collectively known as “Not Mitt Romney” would gain 38, making Not Mitt Romney the big winner.

But Not Mitt Romney won’t be on the ballot, right? Well, yes and no. Several candidates who aren’t Mitt Romney are likely to be on the ballot in all 50 states. If a majority of the party agrees on nothing more than Not Mitt Romney, the real Mitt Romey cannot enter April with a majority of delegates. If Romney is able to climb to even 30 percent nationally in the pre-April states — something he hasn’t done in a single national poll — and wins a corresponding percentage of the vote, he would still have only 349 delegates. That means he would need to capture 868 of the 1,217 winner-take-all delegates to capture the nomination through the primary process. His only hope is that the other candidates have dropped out.

But why should they? The Not Mitt Romney candidates would need to win just 350 delegates after April 1 to deny him a majority of delegates. How Romney avoids that fate is even less clear. Even he wins every state in the Northeast and the West where he is strongest, he still has a big challenge.

Romney is a tough sell in the South and the Midwest. [West Virginia (31 delegates, May 8); North Carolina (66 delegates, May 8); Nebraska (35 delegates, May 15); and Ohio (66 delegates, June 12)] alone represent 187 of the 350 the Stop Romney forces will need — again, assuming Romney can even manage 30 percent of the vote through March 31.

There will be another 386 delegates chosen by voters in seven states: Wisconsin (42 delegates, April 3), Indiana (46 delegates, May 8), Arkansas (36 delegates, May 22), Kentucky (36 delegates, May 22), South Dakota (28 delegates, June 5) and Montana (26 delegates, June 5), and California (172 delegates, on June 5) where he trails Gingrich. The Not Mitt Romney forces would only need to win 163 (42 percent) to deny Romney a first ballot victory.

And, if they do, why exactly would the party leaders step in to save Romney’s nomination? Rather than settle for a nominee incapable of generating enthusiasm, they could use the convention to find a candidate more in tune with the Republican voters.

The GOP leadership and the rank and file would have the opportunity to nominate a compromise candidate who hasn’t been in the race at all.

Megdal's conclusions:

– The Republicans would go into the general election with a sense of dynamism, not disappointment.

– Democrats would face a fresh conservative face who would receive just two months of scrutiny before Election Day.

– A brokered convention in Tampa is shaping up to be the GOP’s best-case scenario.