Pederson Closing on Kyl

The WSJ.com reports that Pederson (44.2%) is now well within margin of error (+/- 3.7% at 95% confidence) of Kyl (48.3%) and the trend of polling is clearly continuing to close the gap. That result means that Pederson could well be in the lead, though it is certainly more likely that Kyl retains a few percentage point edge. Kyl remains under 50% and very vulnerable, as demonstrated by the AZGOP’s devotion of their front page to the Pederson/Kyl race, completely ignoring Janet. Part of their obsessive focus is that there is still a Gubernatorial primary, and they don’t wish to appear to be partial to any primary candidate, but it’s also
because they know they haven’t a prayer of defeating Janet, and that
Pederson is a mortal threat to Kyl’s political life.

It’s unclear how early voting turnout will affect the campaign. If turnout continues lower in Maricopa county than elsewhere in the state, depressed turnout could favor Pederson. It is clear that early voting is down across the board, but I don’t know whether the trend is uniform. Nor is it clear whether voters may be reluctant to vote early in some areas because they don’t wish to vote too soon on some contentious primary contests. In fact, it’s not clear that low primary turnout heralds lower turnout in the general elections. I suspect that those variables are at least mostly independent. Strong interest in several ballot measures and in closely contested races such as the Pederson-Kyl race, the Mitchell-Hayworth race in CD 5, and the open seat in CD 8, could inspire higher turnout in richly Democratic districts.

Both Senatorial campaigns are closing to grappling range with attack ads that will likely prove the deciding factor in the campaign. Pederson today started running an new ad highlighting Kyl’s close connection with the Bush Administration and his support for Big Oil. Kyl has been consistently hammering on Pederson’s use of his personal fortune to fund his campaign, and suggesting that Pederson is a ‘Massachusetts liberal’ in the vein of Kennedy. Kyl’s tone has been nasty and dismissive for some time now, a clear indication of a campaign that is afraid and/or desperate.

I’m glad that Pederson has finally moved into the contrast phase of its messaging plan. Kyl is still doing much better among Democrats and Independents than the Senator with the second most conservative voting record has any right to do. Pederson should slip that fact into some his ads; Kyl remains a cypher who is largely able to define himself to Arizona voters. Unless Pederson drives Kyl’s extremism home to the voters, he’ll have a hard time beating Kyl. Kyl’s seat remains a strong potential pick-up for the Democrats, but Pederson is going to have to clearly define Kyl to centrist voters.

Oh yeah. And Pederson also needs to be careful to never, ever use the adjective "Democrat" when he means "Democratic" ever again (Windows Media). It gives cover to those GOP assholes who want to play the game of re-naming our party. We are the Democratic Party, damn it. I don’t know what the Democrat Party is. Grrrrr…