Your October Surprise, Sir…

I was over on the Tucson Drinking Liberally bulletin board, and one of our lushes suggested that Bush was preparing an October surprise in the form of the trial of high-level Al Qaeda members, specifically of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (OBL’s putative No. 2) who is among the 14 high-level
detainees in the war on terror who is being transferred from CIA to
Pentagon custody.

I think that is a losing stetegy. All Democrats need do is point out that terror prosecutions have fallen to pre 9/11 levels, the median sentence for terrorism-related conviction is down to just 20 days, and the US Attorney’s declination rate on terror cases is over 90% because of the sloppy and illegal investigative methods the Cheney Adminstration is using. The only result can be that the GOP’s numbers fall further. No threat of a surprise here, just a gaping political opening even Democrats could hit if the GOP opens this barn door.

Nor will more entrapments (like Miami) or vapor threats (like the British aviation plot and the ensuing War on Moisture) be of any use. There has been no descernable bump from these ‘victories’ in the war on terror.

No, it will have be something more spectacular.

Here are just a few possibilities that occur to me:

• Conquer the Boogeyman. They could reveal that they’ve captured OBL. I still think it’s possible they already have him and this will be the October surprise, as I’ve written previously. Maybe they would pull this even if they haven’t got him. They could just say they have him. Show some doctored footage or a double, and grab the bump. Then after the election they were mistaken, or the guy died, or whatever… they’re good at bullshit excuses their base will believe. So what if the real guy is still out there? According to leading terrorism authority, George W. Bush, he’s not relevant anymore, anyway…

• Wag the Dog/Kabuki Warfare. They start an air war against Iran, or whatever target of convenience you like. Might be safer if they just flattened a few additional Iraqi citites in the name of ‘cleaning out’ the insurgents. Massive military manuever always sets voter’s hearts a flutter. Hell we could really wow them with simultaneous operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Iran, and Boston; everywhere our enemies lurk.

• State-Sponsored Terror without the Terrorism. Just announce on very flimsy evidence (the mutterings of the Greek chorus of unmedicated parnoid delusionals Cheney keeps locked in his bunker as his chief advisors will do nicely) that there is a horrible doomsday plot afoot. Dirty bombs! Nuclear fallout! Bio-contamination! Weaponized super-bugs! We couldn’t keep it from the public due to public safety, yada yada, 9/11, 9/11, swarthy muslms, swarthy muslims! Tape up your windows with plastic sheeting and duct tape (you did lay in a supply when we told you to, didn’t you?)! Stay in your homes! Oh, is it election day? Well, freedom isn’t free! Day after election day: sorry, faulty information, but beter safe than sorry. Only those who believe this show to be the first sign of the rapture will go to the polls, and the GOP will win in a landslide, claiming a thundering mandate despite a 0.2% turnout.

All that said, they probably are trying to get into position to try Khalid Sheikh Mohammed. They brought him to Gitmo, compromised their CIA prisons in doing so (so you know it matters to them), and are pushig hard to get military tribunals passed by Congress. They know their case would never hold up to American evidentiary standards, so they need to create a method of doing a good show trial for the groundlings that results in a morally satisfying conviction.

I suspect this won’t work out for the Cheney Administration. The GOP is now too divided by anti-terror issues to take marching orders from them any longer. It imperils their continued political survival, and they are begining to understand that this Administration is responsible for relegating the GOP back to minority status in Congress.