Posted by Bob Lord
On "Real Time" last night, Bill Maher made a comment that went to something I've been ruminating about since Romney's 47% remarks went viral, something I've given a lot of thought to over the last five years. The focus of our discussion should be why the income of 47% of Americans is so low that they pay no income tax.
Essentially, we are experiencing what I'll refer to as bracket creep upside down. Up until the '80s, Americans faced a phenomenon known as bracket creep. Although their incomes in real dollars were not increasing, but merely keeping pace with inflation, they'd feel as if their taxes were increased, because they would "creep" into higher tax brackets, because the brackets were defined in nominal dollars, not real dollars. For the most part, bracket creep was eliminated by the indexing of tax brackets to changes in the consumer price index. So, if your income simply kept pace with inflation and nothing more, your marginal tax bracket would stay the same.
Since 1980, however, and especially since 2000, the incomes of most Americans have not kept pace with inflation (while the income of those at or near the top has skyrocketed). As a result, we're experiencing the opposite of bracket creep or "bracket creep upside down." As the tax brackets adjust to account for changes in the cost of living, the income of most Americans is not keeping pace with inflation. Thus, most Americans are creeping down the tax brackets over the years. Prior to 1980, nominal incomes increased due to inflation, while tax brackets remained constant, resulting in bracket creep. Since 1980, tax bracket inflection points have increased due to inflation, while incomes have not kept pace with inflation, resulting in bracket creep upside down. And, by the way, the stated level of inflation we've experienced, based on the consumer price index, almost undoubtedly is less than real inflation. For a discussion of this, read "Bad Money," by Kevin Phillips. If tax brackets had kept pace with the real level of inflation, over 50% of Americans would be paying no income tax.