By Craig McDermott, cross-posted from Random Musings
A brief post, mostly because there isn't much news yet…
…State Rep. John Kavanagh (R-Fountain Hills) has opened an exploratory committee for a run at the state senate seat in LD23 (North Scottsdale, Fountain Hills). The Yellow Sheet Report (the Arizona Capitol Times' pricey political gossip sheet) reported this development as if it was unexpected news, but…
1. The current state senator from LD23 is Michele Reagan, and she is (unofficially, at this point) running for AZ Secretary of State in 2014, leaving an opening there.
2. Kavanagh is termed out of the House and cannot run for reelection to the House in 2014, which leaves a run for statewide office (probably doesn't have the name rec for such a run and I haven't heard of him expressing any interest in a statewide office), a run for Congress (which would probably mean a primary fight against David Schweikert, the incumbent member of Congress in his area, and Schweikert just beat up on the deep-pocketed Ben Quayle. A Kavanagh challenge to him probably isn't feasible right now…plus I haven't heard of him expressing any interest in this area, either), or a run for state senate.
LD23 is a very Republican district; the winner of the R primary there *will* end up winning the general, and the two people who, in my estimation, could defeat him in the primary aren't interested (current State Sen. Michele Reagan is apparently running for another office, and former State Sen. Carolyn Allen is retired now). Someone may step up and challenge him, but until he is actually defeated, the seat is presumed to be his for the taking.
In short, while this was reported as news, there is nothing unexpected here.
…Former State Sen. Jerry Lewis (R-Mesa) has renewed his committee, possibly in preparation for another run for the LD26 seat. Lewis defeated Russell Pearce in the 2011 Pearce recall election, only to be defeated in his bid for a full term by Representative (soon to be "Senator") Ed Ableser (D-Tempe).