Analysis: Democrats Lost Because of a Shift in Voter Registration

In a detailed analysis of the 2024 election, Sam Almy, a data strategist with Uplift Campaigns, provided an insightful breakdown of voter registration shifts and turnout patterns in Pima County and Arizona’s competitive districts during a presentation for Democrats of Greater Tucson.

Almy highlighted a significant shift in voter registration trends, noting that while Democratic registration surged between 2018 and 2020, the momentum has since reversed. “From 2022 to 2024, Democrats lost 205 voters in Pima County while Republicans added 13,000,” Almy revealed, describing the substantial increase in Republican registration as a pivotal factor in the election’s outcome. Independents also grew significantly, adding 24,000 voters in the same period.

Almy suggested that dissatisfaction with the Biden administration was a key factor behind the Republican surge. “We have to acknowledge that while the Biden administration achieved major policy wins like the CHIPS Act, rising inflation fueled dissatisfaction,” he explained. Almy also credited efforts by conservative groups like Turning Point USA, led by Charlie Kirk, for aggressively registering younger Republican voters.

Examining turnout trends, Almy emphasized that Democratic and Republican turnout has remained relatively equal since 2018. However, due to the GOP’s higher registration numbers, Democrats face a growing disadvantage. “Even if turnout rates are equal, the raw numbers favor Republicans due to their registration gains,” he warned.

Single shot method worked

The analysis also focused on Legislative District (LD) 17, one of Arizona’s most competitive areas. Almy described the “single-shot” strategy as an effective approach. The approach is to have a single Democrat running for two open state representative seats in a district. “This shows that the single-shot is effective,” he stated, pointing to LD 17 as one of the few districts where Democratic registration slightly increased.

Despite the overall Republican gains, Almy highlighted anomalies. “Saddlebrook, historically a Republican stronghold, shifted left in both 2022 and 2024,” he noted, underscoring pockets of Democratic resilience.

One of the most striking maps in Almy’s presentation depicted the partisan shift from 2020 to 2024. “Almost every precinct in Pima County shifted red,” he said, pointing out that Democratic strongholds on Tucson’s south and west sides saw notable Republican gains. However, LD 17 remained an exception due to the successful implementation of the single-shot tactic.

Addressing concerns about younger voters, Almy acknowledged that data is still emerging but noted that voters under 35 continue to represent a small portion of the electorate. “Voters under 24 make up less than 5% of all voters in Arizona,” he said, reinforcing the challenge of mobilizing younger demographics.

Digital TV advertising

Looking ahead, Almy stressed the importance of adapting campaign strategies to changing voter behavior. He advocated for increased investment in digital TV advertising, particularly on platforms like YouTube, which are popular among Hispanic and Latino voters. “Investing more in digital TV is the way to go,” he advised, emphasizing the need to cast a wider digital net rather than relying solely on direct voter targeting.

See Democrats try new digital strategy.

Reflecting on Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego’s victory, Almy attributed the win to his opponent’s weaknesses. “Kari Lake was a bad candidate,” he remarked bluntly. He also praised Gallego’s ability to connect with voters through a relatable image. “He’s a guy you want to have a beer with,” Almy said, crediting Gallego’s communication style for resonating with Latino men and rural voters.

As the presentation concluded, Almy urged Democratic organizers to continue refining their strategies. “It is difficult to flip the legislature in one cycle,” he acknowledged, but added that tactics like the single-shot strategy could be expanded to more districts to enhance competitiveness in future elections.