Nobody can honestly tell whether Edwards, Obama, or Clinton will win the Iowa caucuses. All we can be a little bit sure of is that it is very likely to be one of them, and not any of the other candidates. The polling is statistically insignificant: it’s a dead heat going in. The big factors will be how many turn out, who they are, and their preference ranking if they are supporters of candidates pulling under the 15% threshold.
As you know if you read my predictions in the last post, I think the winner will prove to be John Edwards. His strong organization, practical residence in the state for the past 4 years, prior Iowa experience, strong second-choice stats, and most especially his strong and consistent economic populist message are the reasons I think he’ll go over the top. If I am right, much of the final nudge over the tipping point may come from this ad that will be Edwards’ final message going into the caucuses. If it doesn’t put a lump in your throat with its emotional charge and humanity, you are made of stone: