And the Winner in Iowa Is…


Nobody can honestly tell whether Edwards, Obama, or Clinton will win the Iowa caucuses. All we can be a little bit sure of is that it is very likely to be one of them, and not any of the other candidates. The polling is statistically insignificant: it’s a dead heat going in. The big factors will be how many turn out, who they are, and their preference ranking if they are supporters of candidates pulling under the 15% threshold.

As you know if you read my predictions in the last post, I think the winner will prove to be John Edwards. His strong organization, practical residence in the state for the past 4 years, prior Iowa experience, strong second-choice stats, and most especially his strong and consistent economic populist message are the reasons I think he’ll go over the top. If I am right, much of the final nudge over the tipping point may come from this ad that will be Edwards’ final message going into the caucuses. If it doesn’t put a lump in your throat with its emotional charge and humanity, you are made of stone:

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Michael founded BlogForArizona as the Howard Dean campaign blog for Arizona in 2003, and has been blogging ever since. Michael is an attorney living in Tucson with his wife Lauren Murata. In 2008, following some health issues and new time constraints, Michael stepped back from regular blogging and began remaking BlogForArizona into a collaborative project. Michael now contributes occasionally to the blog and provides editorial and publishing direction. Also if you want to keep up with the latest Arizona and National political news that Mike finds important, check out the BlogForArizona twitter feed, which he curates.


  1. Gee, the prediction was just a little bit off. Obama a disappointing third? I was surprised and elated to see that John Edwards beat Hillary. On to New Hampshire! I expect the Obamans will really blow in there with full sails!

  2. Bill Clinton signed NAFTA into law!
    My warnings have come under attack on this blog by Mike as being a racist because of the very things I have said that are exactly what this man said tonight about his job and the future of America; now under attack by The U.S. Chamber of Commerce; The AFL-CIO and the Catholic Church selling your and my jobs;Culture;Border and Language to Mexico City and our Banks and currency to China and Dubia!

    Giffords The MILLION DOLLAR BABY wants MILLION DOLLAR BILLS sent to her campaign ASAP!

    Leister just wants your VOTE!

  3. I like Edwards, and I sorta-kinda like this ad.

    The “standing up for the little guy” message is excellent, and it’s strong.

    But candidates get elected on hope, not gloom. Edwards needs to keep fighting for blue-collar guys like this, but he needs to package his message in hope.

    As for tonight, I’m afraid Edwards will finish third. That’s probably not how I’d vote if I were in Iowa, but Obama wins tonight by a larger-than-expected margin.

    Let’s see how stupid I look tomorrow morning.