Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
With 100% of ballots counted (excluding provisional ballots yet to be verified), the Arizona Secretary of State has the unofficial results as of 11:12:59 p.m. on June 12, 2012 AZ – Election Results:
Ron Barber (D) 52.02% 101,559
Jesse Kelly (R) 45.37% 88,569
Charlie Manolakis (GRN) 2.30% 4,482
Total voter turnout in CD 8 was 47.13%, most of which came in record returns of early mail-in ballots before Election Day.
Turnout in the two precincts in Pinal County (Saddlebrooke) was 67.11%, which Jesse Kelly won by only 556 votes, down from his 1,115 vote margin over Gabrielle Giffords in the 2010 general election. This was Saddlebrooke's last Tea Party hurrah — these precincts will not be part of the new CD 2. Buh-Bye.
Turnout in the five precincts in Santa Cruz County was 54.74%, which Ron Barber won with 56.44% of the relatively small vote. These precincts will also not be part of the new CD 2.
Turnout in Cochise County was a surprisingly weak 31.36%, which Jesse Kelly won by 2,057 votes, down from his 3,950 vote margin over Gabrielle Giffords in the 2010 general election. Both political parties have their work cut out for them in Cochise County, but have room to grow voter turnout in November.
Turnout in Pima County was 50.40%, which Ron Barber won by a solid 15,316 votes. More of the liberal blue island of the City of Tucson will be included in the new CD 2. Pima County voter turnout in the 2010 midterm election was 65.54%. Pima County voter turnout in the 2008 presidential election was 79.70%.
The 6% GOP voter edge in CD 8 will be reduced to a negligible 1% in the competitive new CD 2. The percentage of registered Republicans decreases from 37 percent in CD 8 to 34.7 percent in the new CD 2. The number of registered Democrats increases from the current 31.9 percent in CD 8 to 34.1 in the new CD 2.
Jesse Kelly is now twice defeated and faces a less favorable district than he did in 2010. There have been persistent rumors, reflected in the reporting in Southern Arizona newspapers, that Martha McSally may have played a role in undermining Kelly's support among Republicans, particularly in Cochise County. The McSally gambit was "vote for Ron Barber now, elect me in the GOP primary in August."
I question whether Kelly will stay in the GOP primary for CD 2 at this point. The smart GOP money is going to flee to someone less toxic than Jesse Kelly, a fresh face. McSally fits the bill. Should Kelly drop out, it would clear the path for Martha McSally who would then face only a political newcomer in Mark Koskiniemi. I prefer a Kelly-McSally steel cage match to force them to expend their campaign cash in the GOP primary.
I would expect that Dr. Matt Heinz, state representative from LD 29 and the only other Democrat in the CD 2 primary, will withdraw now. He is speaking today at the Northside Democrats Club at Noon.
Some other losers Tuesday night: state senator "Don't make me angry" Frank Antenori, who elected to run for the state senate seat in the new LD 10 rather than run for Congress in the CD 2 GOP primary, claiming that "he's seen polls that show Kelly is well ahead of Barber and likely to win the special election." Right. The only polls Frank saw were the GOP CD 8 special election primary results where he finished a distant third behind Kelly and McSally. Nobody likes likes you, Frank — nobody. The 'dirty effin' hippies' now get to decide your fate, Frank.
Another loser is the Arizona Daily Star's former talentless hack political reporter, Daniel Scarpinato, who somehow fell upwards to land a job with the RNCC after blowing a tailor-made election for Jonathan "Payday" Paton in 2010 by losing to the political neophyte Jesse Kelly in the GOP primary. He had unlimited funds to run Kelly's negative attack campaign from the RNCC, Karl Rove's Americans Crossroads PAC, and Koch brothers front groups American Action Network and FreedomWorks, and still couldn't win in a leans-GOP district.
Scarpinato recently suggested that Ron Barber should refund his district director salary to Southern Arizonans. I think maybe the RNCC should be asking Scarpinato for a refund after all of the money that they have pissed away on this talentless hack.
On second thought, maybe they should keep him around so we can keep winning elections forever.
Finally, RNC Committeeman Bruce Ash, who has been posting nastygrams in the comments to posts on this blog, owes the people whom he has offended an apology. Once again, Ash was proven wrong about everything, keeping his perfect record intact.
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That had to be one of the funniest Colbert’s yet 🙂
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/06/arizona_republican_shane_wikfors_bitch_session.php?ref=fpnewsfeed Just for context
Saw it yesterday. Hilarious.
OH NO!! A typo! “The” reason he may look liberal to some….. sorry, didn’t proof:)
Richard, I don’t live in Tucson and haven’t followed this race as closely as I would have had I lived there, and please correct me if I’m wrong.I take issue with you saying that Barber did the right thing by distancing himself from the President. As we saw from 2010, the Dems that DID do that, got clobbered. The fact is, that this President isn’t exactly a hair on fire flaming liberal. he is pragmatic in his handling of the issues that face this country. He REASON he may look liberal to some, is that the Republican party has completely embraced the lunatic fringe of their party to appease them. The lunatics are now running the asylum! When moderate Republicans are being literally run out of their party because they aren’t extreme ENOUGH, there is a huge problem in their party…and thus, the President, by those standards, looks liberal.
Barber follows in the footsteps of Gabby, who to my way of thinking was a conservative Dem. I didn’t always agree with her positions, but she represented AZ very well. She worked with others to get the job done, for AZ, for her constituents, and for the country at large. She has much to be proud of.
What positions of the President did he run away from? What WERE those “liberal” positions? I’m asking because I don’t know. As far as I can tell, the President has worked very hard, extraordinarily hard, to reach bipartisan agreement on many, many issues….in spite of Republicans squashing every idea and using the filibuster as a matter of course NOT to move this country forward.
Unfortunately for Mr. Barber, he will go to Washington after having won this election, and collect a paycheck only to sit on his hands until it’s time for him to run again.Republicans have made sure of that. Case in point:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDAjpVmic8o&feature=player_embedded Included in that meeting to plot against the President and America, was our very own, Jon Kyl.
SO rather than distancing himself from the President and his “liberal positions” I suggest he better learn real quickly who is a friend and who is a foe. Big clue…President Obama is on HIS side.
“I’ll just say his 2.3% was a good showing for a Green Party candidate and that part of the beauty of our system is that a regular guy like Charlie can get on the ballot and have his voice heard.”
Manolakis only marginally participated in this campaign; he participated in the debates only because he was qualified for the ballot (with a ridiculously low number of signatures required for Greens) and the media was compelled to include him. He went on vacation the weekend before the election. This man is not a serious candidate. Green Party candidates are making a mockery of our political system with their vanity campaigns “to have their voices heard.” When the Greens stop running fringe candidates for office, maybe I will take them serious.
Oops, I meant Jesse Kelly got 47.2% in 2010, not 4.7%. Subconsciously I must have been imagining a perfect world.
I guess I was wrong about Ron Barber’s distancing himself from President Obama and liberal positions. It’s hard to argue with success.
Your paragraph on Santa Cruz County misspelled “precincts” the second time as “precicnts.” If you are going to criticize precincts, at least spell their name right.
I thought you might say something about Charlie Manolakis, since previous posts on Blog for Arizona mentioned him. I’ll just say his 2.3% was a good showing for a Green Party candidate and that part of the beauty of our system is that a regular guy like Charlie can get on the ballot and have his voice heard. The Green Party did not support him, just as they opposed most of the candidates running on their party line in 2010. Where the party ran four congressional candidates in 2010 (all but me were endorsed), they have none now, unless someone runs as a write-in candidate. Only two Green Party candidates filed for state representative, so at this point it’s mostly a placeholder for their presidential candidate.
As your own 2010 analysis mentioned, the Libertarian candidate got 3.9% of the vote in an election in which Gabby Giffords won by 48.7% to Jesse Kelly’s 4.7%, so it appears that in that election a third-party candidate may have mattered. My own feeling is that the data are all over the place as to whether elections can be “spoiled” (probably primaries are easier to “spoil”) by third-party candidates, and my gut tells me that liberals are smart enough to know how a winner-take-all system works. In any case, if we get “top two,” it’s the end of third parties, as the June 5 California primary showed.
No, ma’am it is not.
Yes, sir.
We have a Winner!!! For your prize, please click on the link below regarding Mitt and dressage horses! You’ll be glad you did:)
Is it @$$?
“Hypothetically misspelling his last name”? I had a typo in his first name (corrected now, happy?) I’ll leave the cheapshots to you and BRUCE. It’s all you guys ever provide.
I say we need a good laugh. Glad to help.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/06/colbert-mitt-romney-dressage-horse-olympics.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
I don’t dispute the facts, only his incorrect spelling. As for hypothetically misspelling his last name I am fairly certain that AzBlueMeanie is smart enough to realize that cheap shots are only good for damaging your own reputation.
Need to work to get the DEM and Dem-leaning INDs out to vote in Cochise County. It’s a hot bet of bagger-dom down here, and a pathetic voter turnout for Barber or Heinz could swing the county to the dark side.
Seriously? It was a typo…the facts remain, typo or no typo. At least he didn’t spell his last name wrong!Would have been so easy.
If you are going to critique Bruce Ash the least you could do is spell his name right.
Dr. Heinz has released a press release on his website congratulating Rom Barber for his election for the remainder of Gabby’s term. But he reaffirms that he will be a candidate for the full term of CD2.
http://heinzforcongress.com/node/58
I’m glad Matt is remaining in the primary race for CD2 so that we Democrats and Independents choosing a Democratic ballot have a choice. I’m ecstatic Ron Barber defeated Jesse Kelly for the CD8 special election, but will be seriously considering supporting Matt for CD2.
Dr. Matt Heinz announced this morning he will stay in the CD 2 race:
“With considerable relief, I congratulate Ron Barber on his victory today. I wish Ron the best as he completes Gabby’s term in Congress over the next few months.
Now that the special election has concluded, I want to reaffirm my candidacy for Arizona’s newly drawn 2nd Congressional District. As a practicing physician and lawmaker, I’m in a unique position to tackle our struggling economy, improve the Affordable Care Act and stabilize Medicare and Social Security. We need to make smart revisions to our laws while continuing to support the most vulnerable in our communities.
In the legislature, I’ve found ways to save important health programs while staying on budget. As Democrats, we are also facing unprecedented attacks against women’s health and choice. I’ve stood up to Jan Brewer and Arizona’s ultraconservatives when it matters. I will continue this strong advocacy in Washington, DC.
While I stand by my convictions, I have also been able to solve problems working with my Republican colleagues. As a physician, I am trained to fix problems, not just talk about them. I reached across the aisle to pass groundbreaking bio-fuel legislation which will bring jobs to Arizona and diversify our energy economy. Low-income women suffering from breast cancer will now be able to receive life-saving treatment thanks to bipartisan legislation I spearheaded.
My promise to Southern Arizona is to have conviction when it counts and to build consensus when needed. Just as I work tirelessly to heal my patients in the hospital, I will focus on common-sense solutions to the most urgent problems we face. The stakes are far too high to allow partisan distractions.
In the coming months, I look forward to discussing policy ideas with Ron Barber and Jesse Kelly – and, most importantly, I welcome open conversation with the residents of the new 2nd Congressional District as they choose the best long-term advocate for their needs.”
– Matt Heinz