Close to a Million New Jobs Can Be Created in Arizona

Close to a million new jobs in Arizona over the next ten years.

115 billion dollars in added economic state activity over that same time span.

Personal income growing by close to $100 billion with disposable earnings just under $85 billion.

That is what the L. William Seidman Research Institute at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University found after concluding a study, at the behest of the Center for American Progress, on the benefits to the Grand Canyon State of the Biden-Harris Democratic Budget Reconciliation Plan, as currently proposed, if it passes in Congress.

The new jobs, if the plan passes would be centered, according to the study, in:

• “Construction: 163,775 job-years (18.2% of total impact).
•  Social Assistance: 162,902 job-years (18.1% of total impact).
•  Retail Trade: 69,002 job-years (7.7% of total impact)
•  Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services: 64,847 job-years (7.2% of total impact).
•  Educational Services (Private): 55,734 job-years (6.2% of total impact).”

Arizona would also see major investments in:

• Health, Education and Labor/Pensions: about $17 billion.
• Energy and Natural resources: about $5.5 billion.
• Environment and Public Works: $1.5 billion.
• Agriculture, Nutrition (SNAP,) and Foresty: a little over four billion dollars.
• Indian Affairs: about $1.2 billion.

Please click here to read the report and see what programs (like free community college, an increase in Pell Grants, investments in clean energy) are included in the budget proposal.

Who in the Arizona Congressional Delegation, in their right minds, would be against those numbers?

The bill will also continue programs included in the American Rescue Plan like the expansion of the Child Tax Credits which all Republican members of the Arizona Congressional Delegation opposed. That begs the question. Do these “public servants” want children and their families in perpetual poverty?

With regards to the long-term residual effects of the Reconciliation Plan, the study did not offer any quantitative projections. It did provide some anecdotal, stating:

“The following is a non-exhaustive list of areas in which economic or other benefits may be realized because of investments in the Budget Reconciliation Bill, the impacts of which have not been examined in the current study:
• Reduced carbon emissions will result in a cleaner environment that will, in turn, lead to reduced incidence of air quality-related disease.
• The expansion of childcare and eldercare will lead to improved health outcomes, but also relieve burdensome caregiving obligations that prevent some individuals from entering the labor force or seeking further education.
• Investment in education, including in early childhood, K-12, community college, and four-year degrees, lead to greater educational attainment, thereby providing a boost to the workforce.
• Post-secondary education investment can have a substantial economic impact for a community.
• Investments in affordable housing have significant quality of life benefits.
• Investments in providing legal work status for undocumented immigrants could lead to labor force expansion by drawing workers out of shadow employment.”

Commenting to AZCentral on the long term economic impact on Arizona in the study, Economics Professor and lead writer Dr. Dennis Hoffman commented:

“Many of the ramifications point to a more productive workforce. I think this will look like a good investment when it might be needed five or six years down the road.”

Children’s Action Alliance head David Lujan Comments on the Report

Former Democratic Legislative Leader and current head of the Children’s Action Alliance David Lujan offered his perspective on the Seidman study, commenting:

“The report is consistent with what we have been saying, the Build Back Better plan is transformational legislation that will provide a huge boost to Arizona’s economy. The Child Tax Credit provisions alone will lift more than 109, 000 Arizona children out of poverty. Many of the economic benefits in the package will also benefit small businesses throughout the state and will create many new jobs. Polls show Arizona voters strongly support these policies. So now it is important for all of our Congressional delegations to support the full Build Back Better Plan because it is good for Arizona.”

Moving Forward

Like most procrastinating adults, instead of working through the summer to reach consensus and compromise on the components and costs to the final Reconciliation Budget Bill (as well as other funding bills and raising the debt ceiling,) Democrats are scrambling at the last minute to negotiate an agreement before the promised House vote on the Bipartisan Infrastructure bill on Monday, September 27, 2021.

Republicans, being true to their form since the Clinton/Gore Administration, have not participated in this actual activity of governing.

With the projected benefits to Arizona and the other 49 states from the original $3.5 trillion plan (which all Democrats agreed to before some moderates like Sinema and Manchin started baiting and switching on before the ink was dry on their baby, the infrastructure plan,) it is hard to fathom why members of Congress are reluctant to make these investments (at the originally agreed-upon figure) to lift people up, expand the middle class, and move the country forward, especially since the measure (unlike Republican tax cut ones) are mostly or fully paid for. 

Nancy Pelosi should probably postpone the vote on the Senate Bipartisan Physical Infrastructure plan until there is a deal on the social infrastructure reconciliation one. While the moderates have voted for all the major priorities (with the exception of Medicare negotiating Prescription Drug Benefits,) of the Biden/Harris agenda, some, like Sinema and Manchin, have aroused doubt on whether they can be counted on to vote for the social infrastructure plan after the physical one passes.

It is better to have all the ducks in a row before moving forward.

It is time for the moderates like Sinema and Manchin to stop issuing statements from afar and showing up on television, explaining what they are against, and start issuing actual proposals about what they are for so negotiations can accelerate and conclude.

There are millions of new good-paying jobs at stake in Arizona and the future direction of the country.

It is time to make this deal for the American People.