COVID-19 is on Track to Kill Thousands in Arizona Alone

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Due to the very limited testing across the country (entirely the fault of President Trump), official tallies of verified COVID-19 cases undoubtedly represent only a small fraction of the actual numbers. Arizona is dead last in per-capita testing in the nation, and has not even attempted contact tracing or active screening for infections or antibodies. For every verified case there could be dozens or hundreds of cases that are sub-clinical, sub-critical, incubating, and all the while spreading, at an exponential rate.

The actual extent of the epidemic is like a vast, and swiftly growing, invisible mass below the water line. In the official numbers of verified cases, we see only the very tip of the mass and assume that is the disease. Dead wrong. Those numbers in the media are merely the tip of an epidemic iceberg. And we’re steaming straight toward it, full speed ahead.

Arizona’s governor has thus far refused to take this pandemic seriously and has not ordered citizens to shelter in place, despite elected officials’ and health experts’ urgings. Such an order early in the outbreak is literally the difference between hundreds, or thousands of cases, and an infection rate of up to 70% of the population: That’s millions of infections. In Arizona alone. That’s 100,000 deaths, or more. In Arizona alone.

Ducey must act. Now.

This is not alarmism, nor a conspiracy to take down the economy, this is simply what epidemiological science projects. Failure to take this outbreak seriously will cost lives: a hell of a lot of them.

Dr. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has already gone on record that we are currently on track to have millions of infections and between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in the United Sates due to COVID-19, as things now stand. Dr. Fauci and his team must be making some assumptions to project numbers that low. He is likely assuming that in short order all states will follow those states with the earliest outbreaks and institute “shelter at home” orders to their populations. If he weren’t making such an assumption, then the predictive models indicate that a novel virus like COVID-19 will infect a large percentage of the whole population, with between 1 and 2 million deaths expected.

Consider that up to 11 million Americans are at risk of serious adverse consequences, including hospitalization and death, if infected by COVID-19 because of underlying health conditions and age. We don’t have the hospital capacity to handle that many serious cases. The death rate of an unmitigated epidemic could thus easily be much higher than even the 1 or 2 million statistically indicated by death rates in populations thus far affected. People will be dying in their homes for lack of medical care, en masse.

Luckily, we have non-pharmaceutical interventions that can bring down the infection rate markedly, including social distancing measures, and “shelter in place” orders. Unfortunately, it requires political leadership to make those interventions work. Unfortunately, wise leadership is not an evenly allocated resource. We in Arizona (not to mention our execrable President) have been unlucky in this regard, thus far. Local leaders, like many of our mayors, have been far more pro-active than has statewide leadership. Doug Ducey could change that tomorrow and save thousands of lives by doing so.

Call or email your state’s elected officials (AZ House, AZ Senate). Call the Governor’s office. Your life and those of your loved ones depend on them getting this right.

You can text “state” to 50409, to contact your state officials through ResistBot.

61 COMMENTS

  1. Beverly is right, and I’m tired of the constant Trump bashing.

    In my time at Trump University I learned skills that I have used to become very successful, and I would not have had that education if not for President Trump.

    I think we should all show our appreciation to him during these troubled times by donating to the Trump Foundation and support the good work they do, instead of the never ending negativity.

  2. McCombs you are spot on. Thank you for speaking up about this propagandist blog. Michael Bryan you are part of the PROBLEM. SHUT YOUR MOUTH.

  3. This writer is bias against our President Trump and Republicans. Accusing an entire political group of not wanting a fair and impartial ability to vote. Our ability to have access to vote is for all elections is the goal. It has been observed that, “vote by mail”, may not be utilized with Democrats as much as Republicans. It is a individual decision on who and how to vote. Of course encouraging Democrats to sign up to vote by mail has been ongoing for years.
    To insult millions of Arizonans with accusations of not wanting everyone, regardless of political views is shallow and untrue.
    I will encourage other readers to find another source of unbiased news. Most of us are educated and informed we do not need trash news.

  4. Donna bot broken, is just something I heard.

  5. What I heard is that all the state’s that have a train going through them not sure if all do or not but the military has artillery and rocket launchers in our own country. What for ? They said the troops are helping in the stores to restock I have yet to see one . Are you as the government planning the next Holocaust just like they did in Germany can the Jews Take out all infected or you scared of the people rioting . Again just something I heard.

  6. Seems Michael Bryan’s article was posted on a site and app called Newsbreak.

  7. I believe the main point is that Governor Ducey should lock Arizona down. Don’t blame. Don’t shame. Just do the right thing to keep us safe.

  8. This a serious situation and we need unbiased information not fear mongering.

    I will use my critical thinking and common sense to decide what is REALLY happening. We need to use common sense to protect ourselves AND others without political bias. This virus does not discriminate.

    I will go directly to the AZ Gov website and not waste my time reading this blogforarizona.net unless I want to hear what MIS-INFORMATION the left Is pushing.

    God Bless everyone including this person. Please all be safe & healthy.

  9. Thank you for articulating what wanted to say. This a serious situation and we need unbiased information.

    I will use my critical thinking and common sense to decide what is REALLY happening. We need to use common sense to protect ourselves AND others without political bias. This virus does not discriminate.

    I will go directly to the AZ Gov website and not waste my time reading this blogforarizona.net unless I want to hear what MIS-INFORMATION the left Is pushing.

    God Bless everyone including this person. Please all be safe & healthy.

  10. There’s enough Trump supporters here today to make one whole set of teeth.

    Sorry not sorry.

  11. It appears that when Q says “Where We Go 1 We Go All”, Q (he/she/they, I’m not sure) means “go” to your keyboards and smart phones to call people names and make threats and spread crazy conspiracy theories on Blog for Arizona.

    They’re acting like the same social justice warriors they all complain about.

    2020 is going to be interesting around here. Fascinating.

  12. Wow, looks like somebody triggered a bunch of typical Trump supporters.

    Anger and veiled threats and insults but not one cited fact to back up any of their anger.

    The Trump supporters are angry at the very people trying to warn them and keep them alive.

    I wonder who’s grandpa posted a link to BforAZ on his FaceBook page? 🙂

  13. Hey DemTard, get your head out of Hillary’s butt and say something truthful. OUR President is doing everything possible for all of us. Two things.. get your crystal ball out and tell us whats going to happen in 2, 3, 4 weeks from now and provide the WORLD with a solution. You pin this on OUR President.. is he also responsible for all the other Countries on our amazing shared World going through even worse crisis (Italy, Spain…)?!? Second thing, DO NOT cash your stimulus check… or be forever pegged as a hypocrite!
    Trump in 2020!!

    • Why is it that when people have something to say it get’s political, if Trump was doing all he could he would have put the whole U.S, on lock-down when Covid-19 first hit us. (He already new what it did in several other countries). It’s a possibility that It might have subsided by now. BUT NO HE WAS MORE WORRIED ABOUT HIS PRECIOUS MONEY INSTEAD OF PEOPLES LIVES. THIS COUNTRY CAN SURVIVE A COUPLE OF MONTHS ON LOCK-DOWN AND SAVE THOUSANDS OF LIVES. NOW IT MIGHT TAKE LONGER, IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN NIPPED IN THE BUT…..

  14. True. President Trump is doing a great job. Quit blaming him for your mistakes. He doesn’t make the decisions to shut down the states you idiots.
    The state governor does. You morons.

  15. It is very important for people (like the majority of the individuals who have offered their comments here) to strongly follow the real news, not the fecal matter on the Fox Island shows of Hannity, Dobbs, or Ingrham. It is also vital that they follow reality like their Duce finally did after spending the last week openly advocating opening the country back up for Easter. Trump played chicken with Science and lost. It is amazing for people in the Trump Zone who say they watch the President’s briefings are not astounded by the constant lying, denials of things he said (preserved for posterity on video,) and same time contradictions he continually utters. Governor Ducey and his people need to lead, instead of reacting to the proactive decisions like those made by Mayor Coral Evans, and shut down as much of this state as possible. Arizona is a state with a high senior and health care population. They need everyone to plan ahead instead of leading from behind.

    • This 100% ——-> Trump played chicken with Science and lost.

      That should be the first line of every article on SARS-CoV-2.

  16. Not only are you wrong, but you’re dead wrong, as to this is President Trump’s fault. FACT

  17. This blog Is absolutely absurd, ridiculous and un truthful. I just goes ti show you how scared the liberal-media/ liberals in general are of Trump and his reelection. Their hatred for OUR Pres. is so high that they cannot even focus on the human crisis we are all experiencing. They do not even realize how transparent their hatred is and how it focuses a laser on how wrong they are, have been and will continue to be.j

    • More like scared of Trump’s incompetence, ignorance, mental health, negligence, lack of true patriotism, lack of respect for the law, hatred of our institutions of democracy and freedom, and lack of concern for anyone’s interest other than his own.

  18. I don’t know where you’ve been lately but I watch our Governor on television daily. Your comment (entirely the Presidents fault) is so misleading. I don’t mind reading both sides, and you’re not a reporter your a blogger (which is entirely your biggest fault)! Obviously you have a political agenda while trying to mislead our wonderful state of Az. It must be nice to have hindsight as a blogger sitting behind your computer. Where were these comments when Obama let over ten thousand people die before he told anyone about the last virus while he was in office? I have no doubt you probably blame our President for all the Countries who also got the virus. When you start your blog with ( It’s entirely the Presidents fault) you lost 60% of your readers.

  19. The majority of the previous comments are spot on. Just because somebody is educated doesn’t mean they are not biased and this is a totally biased, scare blog, out to raise more hate for our President. When are these so-called journalists going to be honest enough to drop the word journalist from their title? The word journalist misleads some people to believe everything these people say. Shameful!!

  20. Thousands are on track to, not read your ridiculous scare blog! I realize it makes the left feel important to blame everything on President Trump. It’s not going to work Michael. We don’t scare easy.

    • Actually your entire party has been terrified into submission by a third-rate reality tv star. You scare incredibly easily…

  21. Sure, the President fault. Do you realize how stupid that sounds. Unfortunately there are some that believe this kind of crap. Stay safe!

  22. One additional comment if I may, please. The headline for this blog is misleading and deceptive. I came to this article through the headline, believing that it was a legitimate news article. I am sadly mistaken. It is a partisan editorial that furthers the cause of hatred for President Donald Trump. If I had known what this was through a genuine and truthful headline, I would not have wasted my time.

    The text block to the upper right of this article is similarly mistaken. The text reads “Please support independent journalism on Blog for Arizona”. That is obviously incorrect. A more accurate and transparent text would read “Please support partisan hate journalism on Blog for Arizona”.

    Respectfully.

    • Okay, since you object to the headline, you tell us: For how many deaths from COVID-19 do you think Arizona is on track? Enlighten us with your wisdom.

  23. They used to shoot people for treason. Once I saw Washington Post, I knew what to expect.
    We must support President Trump and his coronavirus team rather than second guessing.

    • I don’t think you understand what “treason” means, otherwise you’d worry about your cult leader Trump and his pale sidekick Kushner.

      I’ve never see such a coordinated attack against the blog, someone in Trumpland must be nervous.

  24. Typical liberal Democratic commentary, playing the victim card and continuing to look for who to blame. Imagine the real disaster we would be in with Hillary at the helm!

  25. Sorry, “Spot on” is more “spot off”. This blog is one of the most subjective and partisan editorials I have seen in a very long time. To blame Donald Trump for any part of a global pandemic is analogous to blaming Franklin Roosevelt for the rise of the Third Reich. Much as Roosevelt did in his battle against Hitler, President Trump is apparently doing all he and his administration reasonably can to fight the coronavirus scourge. If, as one commentator wrote, educated people wrote such pieces, and I will add with an objective mind, then these articles would be far more balanced and realistically attributed. Do I agree with everything the administration has done? Do I agree with everything that Governor Ducey’s office has done? Probably not to both of those. But, that is why those gentlemen are in the offices that they are, and I fill the role of a retired federal agent.

    We all want the same thing. What a novel thought if we were to actually work together, even if only on one emergent issue?

    • Actually, Roosevelt did play a key role in the rise of the Third Reich, for which he was deservingly criticized. Remember Joe Kennedy’s support for Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler? That was Roosevelt’s policy he was implementing. It was an absolutely critical mistake. Remember the refusal to allow the passengers on the MS St. Louis to disembark in the US? That was Roosevelt’s policy.

      In total, I think Roosevelt was a great president. But I’m willing to acknowledge his failures.

      Are you willing to acknowledge Trump’s failures (beyond the obligatory generic “I don’t agree with everything he does”), or are you going to behave as a cult member does? Your call.

      • It’s also true that FDR opposed the the return of the French colonizers to Vietnam as stated in the Atlantic Charter. Unfortunately, Harry Truman did not share his views.

    • Comparing Trump to FDR is more than I can bear right now. However, it is true that we need a leader of FDR’s caliber right now. Instead we have a bloated, blathering, narcissistic buffoon from the ranks of the reality show entertainment for idiots industry.

  26. Entirely doom and gloom and showing your liberal hate for Trump.What a ridiculous blog article. Who allowed this garbage!!

  27. Spot on, Mike. For purposes of comparison, here’s today’s NYTimes piece on how a responsible governor, Jay Inslee, has acted:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    We may get lucky. Some hotter weather arrives tomorrow. And people here started social distancing on their own earlier on than they did in Washington, the first state to see a substantial number of cases. I sure hope we do.

    We were dealt a much better hand in this crisis than was Washington, having weeks more to anticipate and prevent than did they. If the outcome here remotely approaches the outcome there or, worse yet, exceeds it, it’s a complete failure of government.

  28. If only educated people actually wrote these. Love how it is entirely the presidents fault because he should have known this was coming and he should have had tests ready for a disease he didn’t know anything about. People are so idiotic!

    • Well, the author is an attorney, so it seems starting point, that he’s not educated, is far off the mark. You could have invoked a more subjective factor to make your point — intelligence for example — but by choosing education you betrayed your own weakness in thinking skills. A second mark against your credibility is not putting your name behind your comment. Years ago, we had a commenter here who hid behind a pseudonym. Turned out he was an elected official, who was voted out of office once he was associated with his comments here. Not a good path for you to follow. If you’re not willing to put your name behind the comment, it likely means you’re not confident it’s correct or not confident in your own ability to defend it.

      Turning to the substance of your comment, how so? The US had its first case on the same day South Korea had theirs. Compare the respective reactions by leadership here and there. Heck, China is where the virus originated. They had NO notice. Yet they still had a better outcome. And let’s not forget, the same intel reports that Trump ignored were informative enough for Republican Senator Richard Burr to anticipate the market crash and dump his personal portfolio.

      • There will always be the 40% whose heads are in the sand. Thanks for the your blog, Michael.

      • China was better equipped to handle the situation since they knew they were going to release it from their lab.

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