Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Politicos pooh-poohed last week's Rocky Mountain Poll (Behavioral Research Center .pdf) showing Dr. Richard Carmona up by four points over Rep. Jeff Flake. I have heard through channels that Republicans have an internal poll showing Carmona up by five points over Flake — yeah, they won't be releasing their poll.


The Carmona campaign today released a poll that it commissioned from Anzalone Liszt Research showing Carmona up by four points over Flake, which is in line with these other polls. Here is the press release from the Dr. Richard Carmona for U.S. Senate campaign:

New poll shows Carmona leading Flake
Latest polling gives Carmona four-point advantage over Flake  

Rich Carmona leads twelve-year Congressman Jeff Flake by four points, 45-41 percent, according to a new Anzalone Liszt Research poll commisioned by the Carmona campaign. Libertarian candidate Marc Victor holds 5 percent among likely voters. 

"This poll confirms other recent polling that has all shown Rich Carmona tied or leading this race," said Carmona for Arizona communications director Andy Barr. "This poll also shows that Congressman Jeff Flake's sleazy tactics are backfiring, as the 12-year incumbent Congressman and former lobbyist continues to trail dramatically with independent voters." 

The Special Forces veteran, trauma surgeon, Pima County Deputy Sheriff and 17th Surgeon General of the United States gained a net 5-point shift in the last two weeks from the Anzolone Liszt Research poll survey, leading in Maricopa County at 45-42 percent. Carmona continues to lead among registered Independents at 47-33 percent, and increases his crossover appeal by four points with 18 percent of Republicans polled saying they would vote for Carmona.

Carmona’s personal popularity holds strong with 42 percent having a favorable view, and 34 percent casting an unfavorable one. Flake's rating is mixed as both his favorable and unfavorable ratings stand at 41 percent overall. Flake's numbers are worse among independents and Hispanics, with 43 and 49 having an unfavorable view of the Congressman.

Additionally, Flake's negative attacks are backfiring. Among those familiar with his recent ads, nearly 60 percent say Flake's maneuvers are "dirty politics," and only 23 percent found the attacks believable. 

: Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=800 live telephone interviews with likely 2012 voters in Arizona. Interviews were conducted between October 17-21, 2012 and included bilingual interviews among Hispanic voters, and 20% of all interviews conducted via cell phone. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is +/- 3.5% with a 95% confidence level.