In what was supposed to be a non-competative ‘safe’ district, Dick Renzi, the VA carpetbagger, may be sleeping uneasily tonight in his Virginia homestead. Following his convincing victory over Paul Babbitt in 2004, and the resignation from the race of the Democratic front-runner, Jack Jackson Jr., earlier this year, CD 1 was widely written off as unwinnable despite a ~30k Democratic registration advantage in the district. Despite the handful of political neophytes still contesting the Democratic primary, none of them had caught fire, or demonstrated their viability in a way that our political system listens to: $$$.
Well, Ellen Simon may be set to stomp conventional wisdom into the dirt. After ponying up $275K in seed money for her campaign, Simon raised over $225K in individual donations in her first quarter out of the gate. That almost equals Giffords’ first quarter pace in an open district. Simon’s pace also buries Renzi’s returns for the quarter of just $188K. Worse still for Renzi, of that total, only $90K of that is individual contributions.
Renzi’s current cash on hand is $673K, but he carries nearly $530K in debt on his books. Renzi has accounts payable being carried by his lawyers, accountants, and consultants of amost $180K, plus $350K of personal debt from the 2002 campaign that he has yet to retire. If Renzi looks to be unraveling, you can bet the $180K will be called, leaving Renzi with more like $500K which includes a massive pile of personal debt even larger than Simon’s and putting Simon within plausible striking distance at $381K.
When you consider that Renzi is essentially claiming as an asset a $350K obligation to himself that he likely spent long ago, it seems likely that those dollars aren’t actually sitting in a bank waiting to buy air time. After his other debts, Renzi likely actually has about $150K free and clear, meaning with his anemic fundraising this quarter, he’s barely keeping the lights on. Renzi is a financial paper tiger.
Of course, money wasn’t too much of an issue for Paul Babbitt in 2004 – votes were. The real challenge will be for Simon to make a real connection with the voters sufficient to overcome the advantages of incumbency. Simon needs to turn the broad Democratic support she has recieved from contributors, mainly residents of Arizona, Ohio, California, Florida, and New York, into votes and more contributions from Arizona.
Renzi’s campaign is certainly worried, if the vituperative personal attacks they have aimed at Simon and her family are any indication – of course, it could just be their ingrained habit to sling shit at everything that moves. If the discontent with GOP control of Congress is deep enough, the results should be felt even more strongly in AZ’s CD 1, where Democrats have a clear registration advantage, than in CD 5, where we are still underdogs.
The conventional wisdom – calling CD 1 safe for the Republican incumbent following a strong 2004 victory – might very well prove to be very wrong, indeed, given the right candidate. Ellen Simon’s funraising, and Renzi’s woes, give her a golden opportunity to be that candidate.