GOP poll shows Arizona is a close race for U.S. Senate and President


Posted by AzBlueMeanie:

Arizona's shadow governor, Chuch Coughlin and his Highground Inc. political consulting firm, hired GOP pollster Moore Information to poll the senate and presidential races in Arizona. It looks like Arizona is a close race and the Democrats have the momentum according to the pollster and Arizona's shadow governor. GOP poll: Ariz. Democrats gaining in Presidential and Senate races:

Chuck Coughlin's political consulting firm HighGround, Inc. released a new poll showing Democrats are making a late charge in presidential and senate races. 

According to the survey, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney is holding a slim lead over Democratic president Barack Obama. [The new poll poll shows Romney leading Obama 46 percent to 42 percent.]

At the same time, the survey shows Democratic Senate candidate Richard Carmona within a few points of his Republican rival, Congressman Jeff Flake. [The new poll shows Flake leading Carmona 43 percent to 40 percent.] 

The results in both races were within the margin of error, meaning it's a dead-heat heading into the last six weeks of the campaign.

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Coughlin, who has a reputation as a fierce Republican political consultant, said he released the poll because he wanted voters to have a fair assessment of where the state stands right now.

"This is not going to be a landslide election one way or the other,' Coughlin said. 

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Coughlin said the results of his latest survey mean these races will come down to who "can grab the momentum in the next two weeks and who can close effectively."

In the Senate race, Coughlin said it’s Carmona who has the momentum on his side. But, he warned, that can change quickly, especially for a first time candidate like Carmona. 

Recent polls show Carmona gaining on Flake appear to back up Coughlin's claims.

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That same trend appears to be happening in the presidential race.

Bonus poll number from this poll: Proposition 121, the Top Two Primary ("Jungle Primary") is losing badly, with the no vote at 53%, and the yes vote at a dismal 37%.

UPDATE: HuffPo's Howard Fineman agrees Arizona's senate race is a tossup. Huffington Post: A GOP Senate Is Slip-Sliding Away: Countdown Day 40: "[T]he Carmona-Flake race is considered a tossup, and President Barack Obama, though still behind, is slowly but noticeably gaining ground."

UPDATE: AP reports Obama campaign has momentum _ and nerves – US News and World Report:

Signaling confidence, Obama's team is considering competing in Arizona.

Obama looked at competing in Arizona in 2008, but decided against it because of the support there for home state Sen. John McCain, the GOP nominee. Obama still won 45 percent of the vote.

This year, Obama's team talked early on about running in Arizona, which offers 11 electoral votes, but it never did. Now, with an internal Democratic poll showing Obama narrowly leading Romney, Obama's team might make a play for the state that has seen a 160,000 increase in voter registrations by Democratic-leaning Hispanics over the past four years.

Buying television time in Phoenix, the state's largest city, is expensive and Obama advisers are closely watching their finances.

That's not to say that competing in Arizona would be all about winning: going up on the air in the state — or sending the president in to campaign there, could force Romney to spend valuable resources defending a state he should be able to count on in the quest to reach 270 Electoral College votes needed for victory.


  1. The HighGround poll’s party registration demographics are:

    41% Republican
    35% Democrat
    24% Independent/Other

    From the AZ Secretary of State voter registration roll as of August 2012, actual registration by party is:

    35.97% Republican
    31.88% Democrat
    31.23% Independent

    Their demographics over samples Republicans by 5%, under samples Independents by 7%, and slightly over samples Democrats.

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