What does Hungary’s electoral tsunami mean for Arizona?
Hungary is far away, it’s a country, not a U.S. state, and it is different from us in many, many other ways. But we can learn from what just happened there, especially as we contemplate moving past the Trump era. A pro-democracy candidate, Peter Magyar[1] not only defeated Orban, but defeated him by such a huge majority that his party will comprise over 2/3 of the new Parliament. There was literally dancing in the streets.
Like there will be here when Trump is finally gone.
Gerrymandering and corruption
As explained in a video with economist Paul Krugman and sociologist Kim Lane Scheppelle, after Orban gained power in Hungary he gradually changed the rules of the game. Like the gerrymandering[2] in some U.S. states, Orban used redistricting and other electoral changes to amplify the vote of more rural regions that tended conservative. And much as Trump and his cronies have been doing, he turned Hungary into a kleptocracy; corruption is rampant. But while all the mainstream media outlets came under Orban’s direct or indirect control, YouTube channels gradually became a major source of alternative information from the opposition.
Of course, Hungary is much smaller than the U.S., but its population is only a little bigger than Arizona’s. The Hungarian experience could be instructive for our statewide campaigns.
Magyar didn’t stay away from more rural, pro-Orban areas – in fact, he focused on them. And not just for a few weeks before an election. He connected with the people there for years.
Of course, many factors in Magyar’s victory are quite specific to Hungary. For instance, their country is extremely dependent on funds from the European Union. Lest he lose these funds (and deprive himself and his pals of a significant source for his graft), Orban refrained from directly killing or imprisoning political opponents, as Putin has done in Russia. And Magyar was able to avoid much other legal difficulties by winning a seat in the European Parliament, which conveyed prosecutorial immunity to him.
Magyar was originally part of Orban’s party and inner circle, but a set of personal circumstances pulled him apart. While having similar views to Orban on immigration and more, he has been elected for his pro-democracy and anti- corruption activism. And the urgency of those issues inspired the other non-Orban parties to join with him in a grand coalition that led to a dramatic victory.
Arizona and the Hungarian Tsunami
In Arizona, we also combine more conservative rural areas and somewhat more liberal urban ones. Despite our divisions, as in Hungary, our people largely agree on many things. But our state legislature’s Republican majority slavishly follows the corrupt Federal Administration and seemingly ignores the will of the population about public education, ease of voting, public health, and more. Prior administrations and legislatures have made it nearly impossible to increase revenue to improve our state, and the current legislature continually tries to hamper the ability of citizens to move initiatives into law.
Now, despite a significant registration disadvantage, Democrats hold the three most important statewide offices, at least partially due to citizens’ dislike for extreme MAGA Republican views. Those Democrats are up for reelection this year, and were they to fall to Republican challengers, it is likely that the state would fall further into the fate that our dysfunctional Federal Government currently would have us suffer. I hope that the candidates will take Magyar’s efforts to heart – not to water down their message, and yet to speak directly or indirectly to everyone, not just the ones who already agree.
We’ve got a lot of work to do
I’d like to close with one other point of comparison with Hungary – despite Magyar’s impressive victory, the battle there is far from done. There are many impediments put in place by Orban and his cronies; for instance, while Magyar will be Prime Minister, the President was put in place by Orban, and he must sign all new legislation. In Arizona (and in the U.S. more generally) victories by Democrats in 2026 and even in 2028 will not be enough. As critical as those victories are, significant improvements in campaigning and policy will be required to avoid reaction back. Trump’s return to power and the subsequent depredations have shown that backsliding on the norms of democracy is quite possible here.
We can’t let up.
[1] “Magyar” in Hungarian is pronounced more like “Mudyer.” Interestingly, in that language, it means “Hungarian.”
[2] Orban used a specific redistricting approach also used in some U.S. states called “packing”, in which areas with populations favorable to the ruling party’s opposition are all pushed together into fewer districts.
Discover more from Blog for Arizona
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.