Posted by AzBlueMeanie:
Research economist Alberta Charney of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona projects that roughly 20,500 jobs are on the line if voters reject a proposed temporary increase in the state sales tax (Prop. 100) in the May Special Eelction. Rejection of increase in sales tax projected to cost 20K AZ jobs:
Here's what you need to know.
If Proposition 100 fails
The state Legislature would cut $867.5 million from education, public safety, health care and other state services, triggering a loss of $442.5 million in matching federal funds, Charney said.
About 20,500 jobs would be lost.
Affected workers would include teachers and school administrators, prison workers and health-care employees, but also workers who contract with the government in all sectors, she said.
* * *
If Proposition 100 passes
The government would have $918 million in tax revenue to spend, saving 13,100 jobs, Charney said. About 7,400 jobs would be lost, including jobs in retail and tourism, she said.
"Making sure Prop. 100 does pass and making sure these jobs are saved is extremely important," said Daniel Hernandez Jr., a Proposition 100 campaign co-chair at the Arizona Students' Association.
With a 9.5 percent state unemployment rate, "any job losses will be felt very deeply," he said.
The university system would face job cuts and additional tuition increases without the new tax revenue, Hernandez said.
I have studiously avoided passages in this article quoting the Goldwater Institute and its bogus study from earlier this year opposing the sales tax because, as readers of this blog know, the Goldwater Institute produces scientifically flawed (if not fabricated) studies working backwards from the conclusion which they want to draw, i.e., that all taxes are bad in all cases.
When the hell are the economics-ignorant reporters in this state going to wake up and start ignoring the ideological crap produced by the Libertarian G.I.? All G.I. wants is their political talking points press releases and quotes published, their bogus studies are just an excuse. The damn reporters in this state keep publishing this crap from G.I. like they are addicted to crack. Kick the habit.
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PLEASE NOTE THE MONEY IS NOT SLATED FOR EDUCATION AS THE STATE SAYS Front page article in the Copper basin News Vol. 52 no. 15 4/14/2010 headline How will continuing budget difficulties affect the County in this articel the pinal county board of supervisors make note that the State department of corrections will turn hardened criminals out of the stae system into the county jail in florence unless proposition 100 passes thie state coffers are already planning to use the tax hike for prison funding not education its time to hold them accountable VOTE NO ON 100
SORRY CC YOU NEED TO READ THE NEWS NOT SOME PROMISE DESIGNED TO SWAY VOTES you may obtain the newspaper with the whole article by calling the Copper Basin News at 520- 363-5554 dont think any more of it will go to education than the prop 301 money did
I am a teacher who has been laid off for next year and I am guaranteed (in writing) my job back if the Prop 100 passes. That’s how I know the money is going to education. I am against raising taxes, but not at the expense of children and jobs!
It would be against the law tho put the money anywhere else besides where they say it will go (education and public safety) It’s written the the constitution.
Susan:
I completely understand your concern and hear it often. My concern is not that they can take those funds away from education(because they can’t, according to the language in the proposition and legislation, and if they tried there’d be court challenges all the live long day, like when they tried with First Things First back in June or July of 2009); it’s that nothing will prevent them from cutting education funding even further if Prop 100 passes.
BUT it is important to note that if Prop 100 FAILS, many are saying it will be a referendum on public education by Arizona voters. In other words, “More tax credits for private schools! Public education is broken! So sayeth the voters!”
I tend to see it the other way: IF Prop 100 PASSES it is a referendum on the LEGSILATURE that the citizens of AZ understand that these programs/services are important, no matter how many times they’ve watched puffed up members of the majority party defer to the pinky-swear “No Tax Pledge” they signed to Grover Norquist. Those same members swore an OATH to the state’s consititution which SUPERSEDES that pledge; an oath that REQUIRES that the LEGISLATURE not only BALANCE the budget, but also FUND public education. And sometimes that means raising taxes.
There is a plethora of evidence that this particular legislature will not step up and do their job. Instead, they will continue to divert all the hard work onto the already broken backs of AZ citizens. Regardless of the outcome of Prop 100, it’s time to ready the pink slips for November, y’all!
Kral makes many good points about the sales tax proposition. Let me make one more: pass this bill and not only do we have no assurance where the money will go, but we will perpetuate the problem of a decent and progressive (those who make less, pay less and those who make more pay more) tax system for our state. There will be no resolution of the problem if we continually feel we have to vote for a rotten, stop gap arrangement rather than tackle the issue of a progressive (those hwo make less, pay less, etc) system for Arizona.
What guarantee do we have that the revenue from the tax hike will go to education? The morons in the AZ GOP are pushing through yet MORE TAX CUTS which will come close to offsetting the revenue from hiking the sales tax.
I don’t trust these idiots. I am voting NO on 100 unless there is an ironclad guarantee that the GOP can’t divert the funds. Since this will NEVER happen with this bunch I will vote NO on 100 and will campaign against it.
Time for the legislature to step up and do their job. We need tax increases and the elimination of many of the special interest tax credits. Start with the religious schools funding and work from there, but not another penny from me for them to give away to the corporations.
No on 100 without guarantees…..
At the very least reporters should ask the GI to produce a copy of the report with details about the methodology used. If the GI refuses, the reporter should decline to include the GI claims.
I have major major problems with Proposition 100. I think it was part of one of the worst budgets this state has ever seen and it is massively irresponsible to push forward the only thing that makes that awful budget work…to the voters!!! So it will be OUR fault if we don’t pass Gov. Brewer’s crappy budget???? It does, yet again, put us even deeper in the problem our state already has: an over-reliance on sales tax revenue (which is regressive…and its gambling pure and simple). We need higher income taxes…and higher property taxes…we need a govt. that won’t actually try to LOWER taxes during a problem like this of their own making.
Hubris…and sickening for me to pull the lever.
But pull it I will. Everything Charney says is true. If this does not pass to fill what is little left in the budget…what you see now will be magnified.
So we are forced to vote for this crap to simply save us from the worst budget becoming even more worse.
I can’t believe I live here.