Iowa Predictions


No guts, no glory, as they say. Here are my predictions:

Democrats: Clinton wins by a whisker. The most likely development to change that would be if O’Malley’s voters flocked to Sanders in droves, and it’s otherwise close enough for that to make a difference.

Republicans: Trump should win, but the rest is the more interesting part. I see Cruz and Carson, especially Carson, underperforming. Polls showing Carson maintaining 10% support just can’t be right. Cruz stumbled recently and his unlikeability will hurt him. Rubio and Paul, especially Paul, will over perform. Paul is the only R candidate who speaks coherently on a consistent basis. And the polls are missing about half the Ron Paul voters from 2012. Rubio will pick up a few points as supporters of the also-rans  decide they want their votes to have an impact.

Going forward? I think it depends what happens after New Hampshire. If Christie, Bush, and Kasich are pressured by their donors and the R establishment to call it quits, it winds up a 2-way race between Rubio and Trump, which Rubio ultimately wins. If the field is not sufficiently winnowed, Trump wins.