Iowa Predictions

No guts, no glory, as they say. Here are my predictions:

Democrats: Clinton wins by a whisker. The most likely development to change that would be if O’Malley’s voters flocked to Sanders in droves, and it’s otherwise close enough for that to make a difference.

Republicans: Trump should win, but the rest is the more interesting part. I see Cruz and Carson, especially Carson, underperforming. Polls showing Carson maintaining 10% support just can’t be right. Cruz stumbled recently and his unlikeability will hurt him. Rubio and Paul, especially Paul, will over perform. Paul is the only R candidate who speaks coherently on a consistent basis. And the polls are missing about half the Ron Paul voters from 2012. Rubio will pick up a few points as supporters of the also-rans  decide they want their votes to have an impact.

Going forward? I think it depends what happens after New Hampshire. If Christie, Bush, and Kasich are pressured by their donors and the R establishment to call it quits, it winds up a 2-way race between Rubio and Trump, which Rubio ultimately wins. If the field is not sufficiently winnowed, Trump wins.


Discover more from Blog for Arizona

Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.