I have a few musings to share about goings on in the Middle East. Take them for what they are worth; it’s just some thoughts and from my perspective as an avid observer of global security matters.
Trump’s incompetence in national security and international affairs is why Iran is just about to develop a nuclear weapon.
When Obama was negotiating the JCPOA (i.e. the Iran nuclear deal that traded sanctions relief for nuclear guarantees and IAEA inspections) Iran was a estimated to be just weeks away from being able to cross the nuclear threshold and create a functional nuclear device (often referred to as ‘nuclear breakout’), once the decision had been made to do so by Iran. Once the JCPOA came into force, that timeline for ‘breakout’ by Iran was pushed back to about 12 months due to the agreement’s terms and inspections. In simple terms, the agreement bought over a year of lead time from any decision by Iran to build a nuclear weapon and the capability to actually build one. Most security experts held it to be a useful and sound deal.
But Trump didn’t think so. He wanted to bring ‘maximum pressure’ to bear on Iran by restarting sanctions. Pressure to what end? Ask him! Nobody has ever been able to articulate clearly what was gained thereby. Basically, most analysts feel that Trump gained only a talking point about being ‘tougher on Iran than Obama’ and the pleasure of destroying something that Obama initiated. It will likely be seen by history as one of trump’s biggest blunders in international affairs.
Fast forward to today. Now, Iran’s proxies in the wider Middle East (Hezbullah and Hamas) have been operationally destroyed by Israel. Iran has largely absorbed and suffered all the economic damage of reimposed sanctions. And Iran has now enriched uranium up to 60% – just short of what is needed for a device. The IAEA estimates that Iran is now a mere week away from being able to build a device once the decision has been made to do so.
America is out of leverage, our ability to coerce Iran economically is exhausted. Iran is against the wall and weaker than ever regionally due to the destruction of its proxies. Israel has been hitting targets inside Iran with near impunity due to destruction of its’ air defenses. Trump will never reverse himself and lift sanctions in exchange for concessions on nuclear matters with Iran, and Iran would never trust him if he offered.
Now, part of these circumstances are admittedly Biden’s doing. Biden allowed Israel to wage basically unlimited war on Iran’s regional proxies, destroying Iran’s armed influence in the region, and allowed the Israeli strikes that have utterly destroyed Iran’s air defenses. But to be fair, Biden could not have stopped Israel’s war even if he ceased any defense aid over which he has discretion, and called on Congress to stop all aid to Israel. But Trump would have done nothing different – the only criticism by Trump of Biden’s policy has been that he attempted to restrain Israel AT ALL! Iran is now totally prostrate before Israeli (or Saudi, or American) air power, and without any power to threaten regional violence in retaliation for aggression against it.
The only remaining course for Iran to reestablish any level of strategic deterrence is with a nuclear weapon, and that is exactly what Iran is likely to do in coming days, weeks, or months.
The coming nexus of these events is mainly due to Trump’s destruction of much of America’s non-military leverage and credibility by dismantling the JCPOA. Trump (and Biden, and Israel) have cornered Iran into a choice between utter strategic prostration before Israel and the U.S. and creating a nuclear deterrent. Iran has no reason to hesitate and every reason to move forward toward breakout. The crisis for Iranian leadership at this point is hopelessly existential.
Iran will likely try to follow Israel’s own model of strategic ambiguity, if possible. Iran will very likely soon announce that they have amassed sufficient fissile material of weapons grade uranium and have created at least one (more likely several) deliverable device(s). That may not work to get Iran’s enemies to back off, however, in which case, we will likely see an open nuclear test by Iran before the end of 2025.
Trump’s likely response will be an all-out air war on Iran, probably in conjunction with Israel, especially on any known nuclear and missile development sites. Note that is the KNOWN sites. Mossad has had some serious intelligence failures as well as notable successes: does Israel REALLY know where all the key sites are? Who knows where all that will lead? I’m not anxious to find out, and neither is anyone else in the Middle East. One thing is for sure, even all-out military action (short of nuclear strikes by Israel or the U.S., perhaps – both of which are possible) will likely not succeed in stopping an Iranian nuclear breakout, and Iran is not without continuing influence in the region, which Iran will burn down to punish Israel and the U.S. should they begin bombing Iran seriously. The Middle East will burn, disrupting global oil supplies and spiking prices sky-high.
So much for your cheap gas, Trump voters.
With the example of Ukraine’s betrayal and rape (giving up nukes in exchange for empty security guarantees, only to be ravaged by Russia, then cap-stoned by an attempt by Trump to force Ukraine to capitulate wholly to Russia) and Iran’s total security collapse fresh in everyone’s mind, Trump’s actions will likely have destroyed what remains of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and set off a new round of global nuclear proliferation that will dramatically reduce the world’s security. And that’s IF we avoid use of nuclear weapons. The entire world’s security calculations will change entirely, instantly, and worst of all, unpredictably, if that should occur.
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Biden has helped Iran by unfreezing their money, money they used to support terror. From BillO’Reilly,com:
In a largely unreported story, the Biden administration unfroze another $10 billion dollars so the Mullahs in Iran could have a nice Christmas. Of course, the fundamental Islamists don’t believe in Christmas, and if you do, you’re an infidel.
That makes around $100 billion that Joe Biden has allowed to flow into Tehran. That money was frozen in banks around the world after Iran refused to stop exporting terrorism. They still lead the league in that death sport, but Joe doesn’t seem to mind very much. What’s next, pardoning the terror killers?
John, you really need to stop getting your news from discredited and non reliable sources. https://www.factcheck.org/2023/10/republican-claims-on-hamas-attack-and-iran-funds-distort-the-facts/
So the state department has been assured that the $6 million will not be used for nuclear development. That sounds pretty lame. But what about the other $94 million, David? Got a fact check for that?
As a matter of fact I do.
https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Fact-check-iran-deal-1.pdf
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/05/posts-misrepresent-unfreezing-of-16-billion-in-iranian-funds/
“As Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew, testified before Congress, the actual amount that Iran would be able to use is about $50 billion.”
OK, David. $50 billion down but still $50 billion to go.”
Of course, I concede that not all $50 billion is going to Iran’s nuclear program. After all, they have to fund terrorist proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Biden’s release of these funds has caused problems beyond Iran’s nukes.
Please respond with assurances that the other $50 billion is only funding Iranian day care programs.
Here is more fact checking. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/01/no-bidens-new-deal-with-iran-wont-involve-us-taxpayer-dollars/
Let’s remember that Mr. Art of the Deal-I bankrupted a casino along with his buddy in Israel scuttled the Iran nuclear deal and made the world less safe.
David, I never said it was US taxpayer dollars that was given to Iran. What Biden gave to Iran was releasing their embargoed money. It doesn’t make any difference whether it’s US tax dollars or Iran’s own dollars that was released to Iran. It was Iran’s frozen money that was used to fuel terrorism around the world and Iran’s nuke program. All done by Biden. Are you clueless?
No John I am not clueless. Unlike others, I have not been brainwashed by MAGA talking points that steer away from reality. While we are at it, would you care to comment on Trump’s apparent holiday wish list to add Canada, Greenland, Northern Mexico, and the Panama Canal to United States holdings? Would you like to comment on Mr. Trump’s stellar judgment in nominating Mr. Gaetz first as AG when the House Ethics report reveals what everyone knew: that he is a predator of underage girls. Would you finally like to answer what you and your colleagues are going to do to reform the E.S.A. system and save it from grifters? Have a nice holiday break, John and take care.
Funny how Jester John doesn’t refute my position that Trump is at fault for Iran’s likely nuclear breakout, he just changes the subject. Tells you all you need to know, really: even the MAGA recognize Trump’s blunder in breaking the JCPOA.
Your position is wild conjecture driven not by knowledge of foreign affairs but by Trump derangement syndrome. So you be believe Israel’s weakening Iran was bad?
@ Sen. Kavanagh –
Nice shameless deflection.
Where in Mike’s comment was Israel mentioned, and where in your comment was there a response to what he actually wrote?
Arizona is last in everything we don’t want to be last in, Johnny, and you and your party have been driving the bus here for decades.
So you’ll have to forgive us for not giving a shit about your “thoughts” on foreign affairs.
Holy crap this guy’s weird.
Don’t say weird. As effective as it was for Walz saying it some DC based consultant told him to stop using that word. Unfortunately Walz listened. Probably the same consultant who advised him to go easy on Couch Boy at the debate.
Johnny Boy’s legislative effectiveness is on a par with that consultant.
After learning in elementary school that eventually all civilizations fail, I’ve wondered ever since how America would go out.
Turns out, it’s by the very thing progressive liberals have wanted for decades.
The popular vote.
Damn you to hell, irony! Damn you to hell!
If only international relations were as simple as the Simpleton. But Xi, and Iran, and Putin, and Kim, and a host of others, are not going to bootlick the Orange thing, like most of the Senate and Johnson will. Many innocent peope will pay a terrible price for his appalling ignorance.